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Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov

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Author Topic: Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov  (Read 3180 times)
martinastro
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« on: November 10, 2009, 11:47:31 pm »

From the UKweatherworld....

Synoptic Discussion - Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 16th Nov

Issued 22Z Tues 10th Nov

Considerable discussion already underway regarding possible events for late this week and the weekend, but this thread is kept for the detail synoptic discussion of the developing situation.

The situation is very complicated by the interaction of low level thermal baroclinic waves, a strong upper level jet stream and shortwaves moving across the Atlantic.  Each model run is coming out with different detail, and its quite likely the actual detail will not be known until nearer the time.

The first low or wave depression comes NE on Thursday, this can be traced back to a low coming out of the Eastern Seaboard at present, this low comes NE with some deepening (the low largely stays ahead of the main jet Core and is only partially engaged as it comes NE across the UK.  At the same time the thermal gradient across the Atlantic tightens and moisture in the mid levels is derived from Ex Hurricane Ida currently piling NE across the SE'ern United States.  By Thursday the next wave develops as a weak thermal baroclinic disturbance on the PFJ NNW of the Azores, a very tight thermal gradient will be present with a low latitude 160Knt+ Jet Core located nr 43N across the Atlantic.  This Jet Core moves east and the disturbance crosses on to the cold side of the JEt Core.  There is considerable uncertainty regarding how complex the low will be as it moves NE, Some solutions have hinted at considerable troughing between the baroclinic low and some sort of cold air disturbance to the NW.  It is not clear yet how the two will play out.

Into Friday and the low moves NE deepening rapidly as it moves under the left exit of the propogating westerly Jet Core, The 12Z GFS (and a number of its ensemble) produces an early deepener and turn the low into Ireland as a potent low pressure system (Storm Force 10's/11s in SW Approaches) The 12Z UKMET (upgraded to run at 70 levels from today) preferred a slower deepener and a more complex centre with a tight pressure gradient around the southern end of the elongated low.  The 12Z ECM was similar to the UKMEt but positioning was west of the UKMET. The ECM also had a more complex centre, ironically its earlier solutions had been more akin to the 12Z GFS Operational.   The 12Z FIM was similar to the GFS but further west whilst nearly as deep.  (18Z GFS just seen appears to be slightly less deep than the 12Z Operational but largely within noise range)

The 18Z NAE picks up the embryonic low at T+48 (largely getting its outside area data from the UKMO Global Model) its not suprising therefore its postioning of the low at that timeframe is similar to the GM.  The NAE however does have a deep low over N Ireland on Thursday evening formed from the 1st wave mentioned above.  This may be overdeepening the low a little but it does indicate the highly developmental phase the Atlantic is moving into.  Gales likely up the Celtic and Irish Sea as early as Thursday.

There is clearly a decent risk of severe gales or storm force winds given the strength of the JEt Stream and the very tight thermal gradient, what appears key in the development is the location and depth of the 300mb trough which is coming east to engage the low.  As this trough is currently only over Northern Canada its highly likely we will see considerable chopping and changing as the trough comes east into an area where there is a more plentiful supply of upper air obs.  Aside from the Wind there is a lot of rain to move NE over the next 5 days

even global models are forecasting 40-60mm this could easily be increased by 50% over the exposed hills and mountains to the west and SW.

Another low looks set to move NE on Sunday into Monday - the UKMO Global Model tracking the low from COrk across to Humberside with risk of Gales to the South.

P Blight

« Last Edit: November 15, 2009, 06:24:22 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2009, 07:25:14 am »

Sounds rough to me - batten down the hatches!
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2009, 04:26:56 pm »



Forecasters Warning

Heavy Rain and Severe Gales

Affecting: Southwest England, Wales, west and northwest England, western Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

Valid: 13:00 Friday 13th November to 23:00 Saturday 14th November 2009

This is an Advanced Weather Warning issued by Metcheck at 20:40 on Tuesday 10th November.

A deepening area of low pressure is expected to track north/north-eastwards across western parts of Britain and Ireland during Friday and Saturday, bringing heavy rain and the risk of severe gales.

Greatest concern is currently focused on western Britain and Ireland where the heaviest of the rain and strongest winds are likely to occur.

Rainfall totals of up to 2 inches (50mm) may fall during Friday afternoon and night in places, whilst severe south-westerly gales gusting up to 80mph could affect the southwest during Friday night and Saturday, before affecting other western areas during Saturday.

These conditions will result in hazardous travelling conditions, and some localised flooding may occur in areas where the land is saturated after recent rainfall. In addition, some damage to buildings and trees may occur in the severe gales.

This Advanced Weather Warning will be updated tomorrow, Wednesday 11th November.

Issued by: Paul Barber for Metcheck
---END---
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2009, 04:29:45 pm »

TORRO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Over the next few days, the British Isles are at risk from severe weather, mainly in the form of high winds and heavy rain. Some of the strong winds are likely to be associated with severe convection, and there is a slight risk of tornadoes in a few places.

The first risk, albeit fairly small, will be on Thursday afternoon and evening, as a cold front moves eastwards. There are some indications that across southern and central parts of England and Wales, line convection may develop in a region of reasoble low-level shear...thus, misocyclones may develop, enhancing the chance of strong winds and isolated tornadoes.

A more vigorous set of fronts will cross the British Isles through Friday and Friday night. The cold front and triple point of this system may be areas where convection is possible. With strong winds throughout the atmosphere, changing in direction with height, a few tornadoes may be possible, along with some strong wind gusts. The system will also produce strong winds away from convection too.


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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2009, 05:05:55 pm »

Interestingly, when observing last night I was aware that the sound of the surf battering the shore was much louder than usual ... heavy surf seems to precede storms by a couple of days so I reckon it will be windy on Friday. (Must cut down on the beans...)
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2009, 05:13:24 pm »

A lot saying that the ROI going to bear the brunt of the storm
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martinastro
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2009, 05:42:57 pm »

I could imagine things gettting choppy up there Brian.

Yes, ROI and SW Britain so far are getting the strong winds although heavy rain and convective potental for many. This is from Tony Gilbert...

Pretty much a 'double whammy' with two rounds of activity. The most prolific being Friday night with 120kts 500mb! ...If models remain as is then this could potentially be the strongest convective outlook for 2009

Particular attention is given to the UKMO forecast synoptic charts where a combination of three circulating low pressure zones over the Atlantic funnel some very unstable air from deep down in the Azores as a deep upper trough slides in from the west. Its anomalies like these that make the most interesting outlooks possible!

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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2009, 09:12:25 pm »

Model Guidance continues to oscillate between different scenarios with regards the low coming NE Friday Evening through Saturday.  The 12Z GFS has a strong interaction with the shortwave coming east across the Atlantic, effectively locking in the PVA the trough and combining it with the diffleunce of the Left Exit of the 160knt Jet coming towards the SW.  There is a fairly consistent signal for a somewhat elongated low to form in the SW approaches into Friday, as the low latitute baroclinic low combines with the colder air trough to its NW, effectively forming a elongated low pressure system SW of IReland.  What is not clear is as to which of two possible low pressure systems will develop

The 12Z GFS really develops the southern low with an elongated low extending NE, this brings Storm force 10s to the Channel and potential 600m gusts to 70knts through the Channel which post cold front could see surface gusts to 65knts along the Channel.  There is also a swathe of strong winds ahead of the squally cold front which goes through Friday Night with gusts to 60-65mph in places

The 12Z UKMO GM however prefers to develop the northern centre with a low over Kinross vs N Wales in the GFS - The Pressure gradient is therefore not as intense across England and S Wales, the southern centre relaxes as it moves NE whereas in the GFS it is maintained as the main low centre. This is frequently a problem for numerical models with elongated low centres they have difficulty choosing which centre to develop and which not to...  At this stage its difficult to see which will be correct, and in terms of wind rain the two stories are similar - except the GFS has a stronger 2nd bout of wind on Sat. The 12Z GFS Ensemble gives a general indication for WEt and Windy conditions but does not have the required resolution to determine which centre will develop.  As the timeframe nears the NAE and Higher Resolution REgional Models should be able to provide a better steer on the potential development.

Beyond that there are more significant differences as early as T+60 in the vicinity of the Azores, the UKMEt has a slower more developed low which effectively has time to get picked up by another trough and this moves NE as a deepening low early on monday.  The GFS has a much flatter faster feature running NE, the source region is the complex low SW of Bermuda which contain the remnants of Ida, and therefore will be subject to further model differences

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martinastro
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2009, 09:14:08 pm »



Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 12 Nov 2009 06:00 to Fri 13 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Nov 2009 20:17
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for portions of England and Wales mainly for severe wind gusts and for a lower extend for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A broad trough over Europe moves north-eastward, while warm air advection sets in over western Europe ahead of an Atlantic trough. This is associated with a strong mid-level jet streak spreading into western Europe. At lower level, a strong jet will advect moist air across the Bay of Biscay and the British Isles late in the period. Further east, most of Europe is dominated by dry air masses. Over the Turkey region, rather moist low-level air mass is present in the range of the trough.

DISCUSSION

Portions of England and Wales

Models agree on the development of a strong mid-level jet streak spreading into the northern Bay of Biscay in the evening hours, and strong QG forcing will be present in the warm air advection regime ahead of the surface cold front of low pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. A 25 m/s low-level jet is forecast by latest numerical models leading to strong low-level vertical wind shear, while the low-level mixing ration may reach more than 8 g/kg in the south-western portions of the British Isles. Weak instability is forecast due to differential warm air advection in an air mass characterized by nearly moist-neutral lapse rates. Together with strong linear forcing along the cold front, a shallow line of convection is forecast to develop in the evening hours. North of the mid-level jet, deeper convection will likely evolve cold pools due to melting of graupel and snow, helping the convection to organize. Bowing elements are expected, associated with severe wind gusts and possibly tornadoes in the range of embedded mesocyclones. The convective line will rapidly spread into the North Sea late in the period, where the potential of deep convection decreases due to weaker low-level moisture.
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2009, 11:31:43 pm »

I'm keeping my eye on this ,Martin. Saturday looks good for me ( too much rain tomorrow and Friday) and high tide is at a reasonable time in the afternoon. I'm not sure whether to go to the North Devon coast or the south coast near  Lyme Regis  as the winds will be almost out of the south there - ie. head on, onto land ,whereas at Ilfracombe (N. Devon)  near where I'd go (Hartland Point) it would be a more westerly wind . I don't know enough about how the wind impacts on wave height, maybe someone  can point me in  the right direction.  The seas at both locations are forecast to be 'rough'. The centre of the low as forecast for Friday/Saturday will be close to us and may pass just north of Gloucester. These lows are normally much further north
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2009, 04:18:31 pm »

UKww Weather Warning for Heavy rain and severe gale to storm-force winds


Issued Thursday 12/11/2009 1400BST

Areas affected: Wales, England (with emphasis south of a line Preston-Newcastle-upon-Tyne)

Valid from: 1400GMT Thurs 12th November - 0300GMT Sun 15th November


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General evolution:


An area of low pressure with a centre at 970mb 300 miles west of Galway at 1200 Thursday will become complex with several centres in the following 24 hours. One such centre, 980mb, 250 miles SW of co. Kerry at 1200 Friday, comes under the left exit region of a powerful jetstreak Friday into Saturday morning with the result that it deepens to 970mb as it approaches the SW UK, expected just off St Davids Head at 1200 Saturday and clearing into the North Sea early on Sunday. Associated fronts followed by showery troughs will alternate over the UK during the forecast period.


Forecast:
Intense rainfall associated with the first set of fronts, already into SW England, N Ireland and W Wales, will continue to spread N and E through the rest of Thursday. Some very heavy bursts of rain are to be expected with strong and squally winds possible. Rain totals of up to an inch (25mm) are possible and due to the intensity of the rain there could be flooding problems caused by rapid runoff from already saturated ground. Clearer conditions but with squally showers, thundery in places with hail, will follow on Thursday evening and will last until Friday morning when the next frontal rainbands will push up from the south giving a very wet day indeed for southern England and Wales, the rain again very heavy and squally at times. 2-3 inches (50-75mm) can be expected, with the highest totals likely over the Welsh mountains and the moors of the SW: following on from Thursday's rain means that flooding is almost inevitable. This rain clears overnight into Saturday but is replaced by heavy showers and most significantly by severe gale to storm-force winds moving in from the SW and affecting S & W coasts, with gales or severe gales affecting inland S England and Wales. Saturated ground makes trees easier to blow over, and the highest gusts (70-80mph, the latter especially associated with heavier showers) will be sufficient to topple trees, break off branches and cause structural damage. This threat, in addition to flooding and leaves blown in quantity onto the roads, spells out a difficult and at times dangerous period for road users, with some disruption expected.

Issued by JSM for UKww, 1400GMT 12/11/2009

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martinastro
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2009, 08:26:48 pm »

19Z Update

A Potent shortwave upper trough visible on WV imagery and Airmass Imagery lies across Ireland into the SW Approaches, the northern filament of this trough and its assoc PVA has engaged the cold front and developed a cyclonic circulation NW of Malin Head.  This is producing quite strong winds in the circulation, gusts to over 40knts and an active rainband moving east.  The cold front is exhibiting strong Line convection elements with hourly totals confiming the NAE's estimates of up to 10mm in an hour or so across many places as the front comes east.  Some very lively echoes across the South and SE need watching for possible embedded convection this evening with Severe Weather diagnostics indicating a possibility of Tornado's and/or strong convective gusts - more esp a little later as the shortwave moves over the front.  Front is currently waving over SW England with more dynamic rain here for a time, however the back edge of this wave likely to turn very convective later this evening as it moves east with gusts to 50knts + possible in places esp around the South Coast headlands.  Thunderstorms, Hail and Weak Isolated Tornadoes possible. Another 10-20mm possible across the South and SW.  Flood Watches will increase dramatically over the next 24 hrs.

To the SW a very strong Jet stream is located North of the Azores. Models have responded to Midday Aireps which suggested this Jet was 5 knts or so stronger and is now analysed at over 165Knts for the next 24hrs before weakening slightly.  At the same time a active upper trough is sharpening and moving east close to 30W.  Over the next 12hrs the shortwave will engage the frontal zone and a deep elongated low will develop. Initially heavy rain will move NE along the warm front giving a lot more rain across the SW, 75mm is possible over the Moors and Mountains in S Wales perhaps locally more. 

The development of the low tomorrow and tomorrow night has become less diverse in the model solutions with most solutions now forming a deep low SSW of Ireland and moving NE, The NAE produces the deepest centre around 958mbs at T+33 SW of Valentia, and then tracks it NE.  The UKMO and ECMWF are similar in moving a deep low NE close to the ISle of Man as a relaxing low but with a deep pressure gradient to the SOuth, essentially the message from all the major guidance is in agreement on the theme.  The detail is a little elusive with risk of Storm Force winds across the SW Coasts rated at 50% at this time IMO.  Gusts in the unstable air give 70mph + in a few places 50-60mmph inland. These gusts close to 925mb winds which in the cold air momentum could drag the stronger winds down esp in showers. 

The cold front also giving strong winds with a zone of Severe Gales likely ahead of the cold front turning into a squally affair.

At this time the UKMO GM and ECM are probably best guidance, the NAE is over deep at the beginning and then relaxes the centre N little too quickly. The GFS also looks to relax the low a quicker than the ECM/UKMO Mix.

More Trouble early next week with another low coming NE, GFS further NW with this ECM/UKMO a little further SOuth, UKMO rather a different solution confining any strong winds to England. ECM a good compromise between UKMO and GFS at this stage.

its hard to keep up at the moment, there is a lot going on.


-----

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2009, 08:41:30 pm »

Some vicious weather coming over the next 48hrs especially for sw england its going to be interesting to see how it develops.
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2009, 09:25:24 pm »

Some models showing  an even worse storm to slam ROI next wednesday put could change as we all know by now from fridays charts
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2009, 09:52:09 pm »

Check this out! - they even mention that a level 2 is possible for S UK!! - I've never heard of that before for this part of the world.



Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 13 Nov 2009 06:00 to Sat 14 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 12 Nov 2009 21:22
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for parts of the Bay of Biscay, UK, Scotland and Ireland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

An extensive baroclinic zone has established between 10-40W and 40-50N. This region will be the setting for a rapidly developing depression and phase diagrams of numerous model data indicate a warm core seclusion with this feature. Slow forward motion during the rapid intensification stage (until 18-21 UTC) gives way to a more rapid NNE-ward motion during the night hours, as a strong jet ejects out of the base towards the north. At the surface, a cold front pushes eastward, trailing over the Atlantic with a more aggressive propagation over Irlenad, UK and Scotland.

Ridging downstream affects central Euorpe with cold/stable conditions over far east/northeast Europe.


... Bay of Biscay, NW-France, extreme NW Spain and N-Portugal ...

Aforementioned warm seclusion is in full progress west of Irleand and assists in a rapidly strengthening wind field at all levels over the area of interest. In fact, 20-30m/s 0-3km shear does not reflect at all the strength of the overall wind field with 45m/s at 700hPa, increasing to outstanding 65m/s at 500hPa, approaching the Bay during the day from the NW. The increasingly negative tilt of the upper trough axis and the gradually increasing inertial advective wind component along the base of the trough causes overall jet strength to decrease during the evening and night hours, with one stronger branch exiting the area to the north (UK) and a re-developing one along the zonally aligned baroclinic zone over the Atlantic.

Overall synoptic pattern and intense LLJ (40m/s at 850hPa), pumping rapidly mixing/thinning tongue of subtropical air towards the north, probably establishes an extensive warm conveyor belt (WCB), running from extreme NW-Spain/N-Portugal all the way to NW-France and UK. WAA keeps atmosphere neutral/stable with moist adiabatic ascent and there is no risk for deep, moist convection. However, a region for isolated, deep convection could evolve along the back (west side) of the WCB, as the cold front and somewhat drier/cooler
upper-level air approaches from the west. Another feature, which fosters this scenario is the split front appearance in forecast model data/cross sections of the cold front itself. Given the magnitude of the LL wind field, at least a level 1 was issued due to the limited coverage of showers/very isolated thunderstorms. The main risk of this activity will be confined to the NW-Bay, NW-France and extreme SW-UK. Overall environment with low ELs and weak updrafts is hostile enough for not even issuing a low probability thunderstorm area.

... United Kingdom, Scotland and Ireland...

The outlook for UK turns out to be even more complex in respect of the degree of thunderstorm coverage. The WCB with more stratiform rain ought to keep the atmosphere very moist and stable for vertical ascent, so the main focus for convection arises during the evening hours, when the cold front draws near from the west. Overall set-up looks promising for a flare-up of convection during the cold front passage over S/central UK as surface cold front gets topped by WAA above 5-6km AGL with aforementioned 65m/s streak at 5km covering SW-UK during the sunset-midnight hours. Despite the unfavorable placement of the front beneath the indirect thermal jet circulation, overall diffluent upper streamline pattern and left exit of a streak at roughly 3km, crossing SE-UK during that time, point to adequate conditions for low-topped convection. Forecast soundings indicate some LL CAPE release and the possibility for storms to evolve in roughly 30-40m/s 0-5km shear (even stronger, if deeper convection verifies). Speed and directional shear, low LCLs and NE-ward racing vorticity lobe create a favaorbale environment for a strongly forced convective line (LEWP-type) with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes possible. Model discrepancies are still high, so new model data has to be evaluated to determine the final severe weather risk. A coarse level 1 was issued, but if the forced line with embedded thunderstorms verifies, a level 2 may be needed.

Another area of concern arises over SE-Ireland and east/northeastwards at 15 UTC onwards, as the triple point of the warm/cold front and occlusion approaches from the SW. Enough instability for stronger and more persistent updrafts and forcing/shear in the extreme range indicate a severe wind gust and tornado risk and an isolated strong tornado event can't be ruled out. This risk spreads northeastwards, affecting S-Scotland thereafter. Decreasing instability onshore may be delayed by the left exit of the 50-60m/s mid-level streak and hence the level was expaned well towards the north.

... South of Ireland and extreme W/SW-UK 21 UTC onwards ...

The intensification of the depression just to the WSW of Ireland will be already in the end pahse and occlusion starts. GFS and ECMWF are in line with the overall scenario, whereas the rest of the model pool is still oscillating around their solution. For now, we stick with the American/European model solution, which sounds quite reasonable, as both models had the most persistent scenario during the past few runs. A back-bent occlusion starts to wrap around the center beneath a pool of drier high-tropospheric/low stratospheric airmass, covering the center of the depression. A rapidly intensifying sting-jet event is forecast to unfold at roughly 21 UTC onwards, affecting the offshore areas south of Ireland. Model output forecast wind speeds indicate gusts in excess of 35-40m/s, which sounds reasonable, given 40-45m/s at 850hPa and a well mixed postfrontal airmass. This evaporatively cooled air is not favorable for deep convection and therefore the damaging wind gusts risk is not reflected in our risk level forecast, but damaging and potential life-threatening wind gusts in excess of 35m/s affect SW-UK after 03 UTC and spread eastwards thereafter.

Just for the sake of completeness, the last similar event (although not comparable in respect of forcing and wind speed) was severe extratropical cyclone Klaus over the far S-Bay of Biscay. A few thunderstorms occured in a similar environment offshore and onshore, so the risk for isolated showers/thunderstorms can't be ruled out completely. An upgrade may be needed, if this concern increases.
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