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Convective Outlook Sat Aug 16th

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook Sat Aug 16th  (Read 179 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« on: August 16, 2008, 11:37:30 am »

From Tony Gilbert

Slight Risk Gen Tstorms Ireland & Cornwall 09Z-18Z

Moderate Risk Funnel Obs NW Ireland

Slight Risk of Squall UK southern region 18Z-03Z

Back bent occlusion remains fixed over Ireland and may develop some embedded convective cells along the periphery or within boundaries. Some of these convective cells may become thundery. Though I currently do not see the risk of widespread thunder given the recent weakening of the upper trough. Strong convergence likely over NW Ireland could trigger a few funnel reports today. Suggestion of actual weak tornado development now seems slightly less given the shift in the upper jet stream and nosing of the mid level dry air.

Interesting development suggests that we may develop the dynamics for a squall along the southern most regions of the UK overnight . Though I would prefer to comment on this feature later today.

Given the potential changing conditions today. The outlook will need close monitoring for updates. With the possibility to a higher grade risk.

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