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Atlantic Storm This Weekend

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Author Topic: Atlantic Storm This Weekend  (Read 597 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: October 29, 2009, 02:48:29 pm »

Looks like another Atlantic storm will affect many parts of Ireland and UK on Sunday. A very deep low will produce heavy rain and gales, with possibly severe gales in exposed coastal areas. The track of the low isn't certain yet but it could be a SW to NE mover. A nasty cold front from this system might have convective potential with a risk of line convection, possible squall lines, scattered lightning, and a risk of tornadoes over England (?). Looks like  a lively weekend to come. Will post more information on this when it comes available including any convective outlooks.
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martinastro
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2009, 04:25:24 pm »

Weather advisory out for NI on Sun...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html?day=4
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rjgjr
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2009, 04:41:13 pm »

Good luck with any photo ops! Try and stay dry.
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2009, 05:41:58 pm »

Thanks Richard, I will do my best. There's going to be a lot of rain and wind this weekend and into next week with possibly two more lows moving across. The Jet Stream is over Ireland and UK so bad weather is a promise. I'm hoping for some sunset convection photo opps with mammatus but it would be tough to get the timing. We will see what happens...
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martinastro
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2009, 01:22:19 am »



Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 30 Oct 2009 06:00 to Sat 31 Oct 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 29 Oct 2009 20:03
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Robust ridging atop most parts of Europe persists throughout the forecast. A progressive trough, affecting Ireland and Scotland during the late night hours and another one over SE-Europe spark isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Sticking with the ingredient based forecasting method, nothing severe is expected, next to strong wind gusts over Ireland and Scotland.

A prolonged (mostly stratiform in nature) rainfall event evolves around Istanbul and southwestwards during the forecast. Convective coverage increases during the night but expected strength and late increase of thunderstorm probabilities preclude a level 1 for now. Nevertheless, a 20m/s front parallel LLJ and a more or less stalling boundary  oint to isolated high rain amounts.

« Last Edit: October 30, 2009, 01:24:15 am by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2009, 01:49:07 am »

From Irish Weather Network...

A Weather warning of Severe gales for Sunday 1st November.

During the early hours of Sunday morning, a deepening area of low pressure will approach from the SSW. The track of the LP is key to where the winds are strongest initially. The track atm looks set to move through the southern half of the country and out into the Irish sea.

Winds will back southerly Halloween night and begin to strengthen. By midnight, S'ly gales will become established in the south and SE. Winds will pick up quickly in the southern 2/3 of Ireland into the small hours on Sunday.

The track of the LP exits Ireland on the east coast and wind will veer W'ly and increase further to become gale to severe gales. Strongest winds this time in the north.

As the area of LP moves into Scotland, another small LP of what looks likely to become complex moves down from the NW and wind begin to pick up again after a slight lull during Sunday afternoon. Winds again becoming widespread W to NW'ly gale to severe gale with higher gusts.

Accompanying the winds, there will be heavy rain with some places receiving upto 40mm during Sunday. Flooding looks likely.
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markt
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2009, 09:46:32 am »

It certainly looks like it's going to be a rough un'!
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martinastro
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2009, 10:52:16 am »

It has been a very nasty night and morning here (still is) due to strong winds and intense rain fall. That cold front is a beast.
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paulster78
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2009, 01:49:54 pm »

Yeah its a monster i had to look at a world satellite image to get a full view of it!  Rain very heavy here now!
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martinastro
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2009, 03:58:31 pm »

GFS update is very confusing and actually downgrades the entire event with the low several hundred miles further south than previously predicted turning Sunday into a windy day rather than a stormy one. Everyone is waiting for the next update to see if this is a real pattern or not.

Today is certainly very nasty, I thought it was bad here but check out the radar for the Republic of Ireland...nasty!.
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markt
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2009, 07:20:41 pm »

Rain not quite reached me yet, but we have friends staying over this weekend so no doubt it will get us when we go out later on this evening!
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martinastro
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2009, 07:37:04 pm »

Frontal system has moved through here and it's drying up...it has been a nasty night and day. Loads of lightning over the Atlantic W of Ireland at the min. Post frontal airmass is quite unstable so heavy showers and coastal storms are a possiblity over the next day or two. TV forecast is still go for Sunday's storm but I think UK, England etc will get the strongest winds. Will wait and see what the experts say.

I'm hoping to catch a few moonbows soon.

Best of luck Mark.
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JohnC
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2009, 12:43:05 am »

I'm off here on Sunday. Takes two and a half hours. I'll have to wait for the  heavy rain to pass through before photographing out of the car though. Porth Cawl is between Cardiff and Swansea.

http://images.google.co.uk/images?hl=en&source=hp&q=porth+Cawl+lighthouse+wales&btnG=Search+Images&gbv=2&aq=f&oq=
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martinastro
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2009, 12:53:18 am »

Best of luck John, I hope you get some sweet images!



Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 31 Oct 2009 06:00 to Sun 01 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 30 Oct 2009 23:15
Forecaster: KOROSEC
A level 1 was issued for SW England towards Britanny mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Strong ridging over much of Europe persists while a deep trough enters western Europe during the day. Along with this trough, a rapidly deepening surface low with a cold front approaches British Isles by Sunday 06z. An elongated trough over eastern and southeastern Europe becomes more pronounced and a weak surface depression forms over southern Turkey and eastern Mediterranean sea.

DISCUSSION

... SW England towards Britanny ...

As the deep trough digs into the British Isles, a new surface depression forms on its southern edge. Its expected to reach southwestern UK by Sunday morning. Some differences between GFS and ECMWF models exist, where GFS has the low deeper and slightly faster/more to the east than ECMWF. While the convection is limited only the the narrow zone south of triple point, highly sheared environment (25m/s 0-6km shear, above 200m^2/s^2 of SREH in the lowest 3km layer) seems favorable for severe wind gusts along the rapidly moving cold front. Most of the wind gusts should be non-convective, however. A level 1 was issued for SW England area and southwestwards towards Britanny where higher probabilities for a few severe gust events exist. More to the north, quite steep lapse rates behind another low north of UK will overspread the region. Numerous showers should form in the cold airmass, while steep lapse rates could result in a couple hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE and allow some electrified convection as well.


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martinastro
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2009, 06:24:32 pm »

I was chasing today, the convection was really great for this time of year with superb updraughts and large multicells near Maghera, Tobermore, and Draperstown. I caught a poor contrast funnel cloud over E Maghera from a line of cu. Plenty of anvils and mammatus about to. I didn't hear any thunder as some of the convection was distant but according to the sferics charts the cells I seen did produce lightning. Nasty showers too. Images are a disaster today lol.

Reading interesting reports from the Republic of Ireland about mad roation and a funnel close the ground.

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