Slight Risk of Thunderstorms SW UK and S. Wales 08Z-18Z
ATM a low level risk for isolated thunderstorms behind the passage of the occluded front. A very mild moist flow advects north from Biscay with upper troughing edging east marginally overlapping the expected development of a post frontal trough across SW UK. Moderately strong upper divergent jet stream should help trigger stronger pulses of convection for a time. Some of which could produce some sferic activity. Convective gusts are calculated at around 40kts and will be the main threat through Tues. Lack of any significant veer and speed shear in the lowest layer will likely reduce any risk for tornado development. Though I do not completely rule out the possibility based on the rather sharp increase in speed shear from 850mb to 500mb which will likely increase the overal convective potential of any individual storm cell's development.
Restricting factors include very weak Positive Vorticity within the lower mid levels of the atmosphere and some uncertainties exist regarding the constricting effect Convective Inhibition and subsidence building close to the secondary surface feature!