Astronomy, Photography and Weather
March 28, 2024, 11:47:14 pm
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: IAA lecture programme continues alternate Wednesdays from September - an excellent programme of lectures- Queens University Belfast - Bell Lecture Theatre. Also keep an eye out for the Summer Events
 
  Home Help Search Gallery Staff List Login Register  

Convective Outlook - SW UK - Oct 20th

Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Convective Outlook - SW UK - Oct 20th  (Read 153 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 5182


Maghera, N. Ireland


View Profile WWW
« on: October 20, 2009, 12:19:27 am »



Slight Risk of Thunderstorms SW UK and S. Wales 08Z-18Z

ATM a low level risk for isolated thunderstorms behind the passage of the occluded front. A very mild moist flow advects north from Biscay with upper troughing edging east marginally overlapping the expected development of a post frontal trough across SW UK. Moderately strong upper divergent jet stream should help trigger stronger pulses of convection for a time. Some of which could produce some sferic activity. Convective gusts are calculated at around 40kts and will be the main threat through Tues. Lack of any significant veer and speed shear in the lowest layer will likely reduce any risk for tornado development. Though I do not completely rule out the possibility based on the rather sharp increase in speed shear from 850mb to 500mb which will likely increase the overal convective potential of any individual storm cell's development.

Restricting factors include very weak Positive Vorticity within the lower mid levels of the atmosphere and some uncertainties exist regarding the constricting effect Convective Inhibition and subsidence building close to the secondary surface feature!

Report Spam   Logged

Share on Facebook Share on Twitter

markt
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1416

West Midlands, UK


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2009, 07:17:09 am »

Yuck!  Sad  Better wear the Berghaus to work today...
Report Spam   Logged



Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Bookmark this site! | Upgrade This Forum
SMF For Free - Create your own Forum

Powered by SMF | SMF © 2016, Simple Machines
Privacy Policy