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Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?

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Author Topic: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?  (Read 27815 times)
paulster78
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« Reply #375 on: February 03, 2010, 08:52:12 am »

Well im at roughly 65m asl here and its been snowing lightly now for almost an hour, its falling onto frozen ground so its lying Smiley
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paulster78
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« Reply #376 on: February 03, 2010, 11:34:29 am »

2cm+ here now and continuing to fall at mod/heavy rate and starting to stick on the main road outside my house.
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martinastro
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« Reply #377 on: February 03, 2010, 12:50:54 pm »

Plenty of snow falling here, heavy, and been going for hours  Smiley
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« Reply #378 on: February 03, 2010, 06:05:33 pm »

Next week could be 'interesting' with a Siberian blast from the east and snow storms!
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« Reply #379 on: February 03, 2010, 07:12:11 pm »

Next week could be 'interesting' with a Siberian blast from the east and snow storms!

Indeed, winter is still with us for a while yet it seems.  I wonder if we'll have record warm temperatures come easter time - wouldn't surprise me!  Smiley

Anything has got to be better than today, cold rain with occasional sleet, wish it was a few degrees cooler  Tongue
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« Reply #380 on: February 03, 2010, 07:54:37 pm »

Well, it snowed (big flakes) here for a couple of hours, but didn't stick - just thoroughly miserable really. Now cold & cloudy, but the air is so damp that even if it does clear there will be thick fog almost immediately.
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« Reply #381 on: February 04, 2010, 07:41:17 pm »

Republic of Ireland getting very intense rainfall now - torrential.
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« Reply #382 on: February 04, 2010, 07:42:44 pm »

Here's a pic of the snow here yesterday

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« Reply #383 on: February 05, 2010, 02:28:58 am »

Thunderstorm forecast for S Britain and S Ireland Fri...

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-283/
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« Reply #384 on: February 05, 2010, 12:31:25 pm »

Some very heavy rain in Cork/kerry area now with possible T-storms.
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« Reply #385 on: February 06, 2010, 03:07:10 pm »

FORECAST FOR Monday 8th February- Sunday 14th February 2010 

ISSUED 6th February 1100Z 

POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD- Severe frosts and freezing fog inland at night.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY SUMMARY
 
Much of the week will see a rather cold NE値y flow across the south & east but high pressure will be more dominant in the north, ridging south down across western parts by midweek. Later, as the high pulls away north again a more east north easterly flow will develop for all areas keeping it mainly dry away from the east & SE but quite cold, especially by night with severe frosts. Some snow showers near the east and SE coasts working inland at times. By the weekend high pressure across the north again with a slightly less cold ENE値y flow for most, giving some wintry sunshine with night frost and maybe freezing mist or fog patches but it may stay rather cloudier with wintry flurries or showers in the east.

Monday 8th looks likely to see high pressure well north of Scotland and an cloudy ENE値y flow over most parts. An early slight frost and localised mist patches at first across some inland areas of Scotland, Wales and midland England, but mainly too cloudy with some wintry showers about near the east coasts.  The mist and cloud clearing slowly to give some sunny periods in the west and central parts by day but still wintry showers in the east with hill snow & maybe some soft hail. Another frost with a few freezing mist or fog patches reforming by evening in the north and north west & icy patches also, when any cloud clears away, generally though staying cloudier for many with some light wintry flurries continuing in the east. Temperatures well below average at 1-3C in most areas today, may be up to 5C in the far SW, but only 0C across upland areas of the UK such as the Highlands.

Tuesday 9th will probably see a weak ridge of high pressure run south across western parts introducing a more N-NEly flow in the east. Slight or moderate frost in western areas at first then mainly dry with sunny periods developing in the north, south and west. A few flurries in the east near coasts and generally more cloud here all day. Another frost soon reforming by evening in the north and west, especially in valleys, a few icy patches and some freezing mist & fog patches & low cloud possible too. Temperatures not as cold as on Monday but generally staying below average at 3 to 5C but only 1C in the Highlands. 

Wednesday 10th looks to see the high pressure ridge still across the west with high pressure near Scotland. Some shower bands of wintry pptn may occur over NE England esp close to coasts staying more or less in situ by day. Frosty elsewhere to start with freezing fog patches & some icy patches about, clearing slowly with sunny periods developing. By evening a frost setting in again after dusk in many inland areas with some mist patches too but generally cloudier in the Ne and down east coasts and too breezy for any frost. Temperatures feeling chilly at 2-4C in most parts though in the SW and far west more like 4-6C but only 0C over the Scottish Highlands.

Thursday 11th looks likely to see a E-NE値y flow continue for most with high pressure to the north still as the western ridge retreats north. A moderate -severe frost possible at first away from coasts, possibly some freezing mist or fog patches about but a bit more cloudy generally at times in the east and NE with wintry showers near the coasts. By day through central & western parts dry with sunny periods. The SE may see more in the way of wintry showers at times more esp in east Suffolk & Kent, where some more significant accumulations of 5-10cm are likely. Another moderate frost setting in, with some localised freezing mist & fog patches, for many inland after dusk. Max temperatures about 1-2C generally so a colder day but more like 3-6C in the west and SW esp near western coasts.

Friday 12th seems likely to see high pressure over Scotland still with a NEly flow in the south and east. Some low cloud about in the east with wintry flurries again at times adding a few cm locally to the covering in the east and SE especially over high ground. Elsewhere an early moderate or severe frost is likely with icy patches about but generally dry and  bright as any fog or low cloud clears by day. Another frost by evening in the west & north but mainly too cloudy in the east and SE for this as wintry flurries continue. Temperatures generally 1-2C by day for most though up to 4C around the NW and SW coastal counties but more like -0C over the Highlands.

Saturday 13th and Sunday 14th seem likely to see high pressure pull back well to the NW of Scotland with a NE値y flow established across most parts. The long sea track will allow it to warm up though a bit before the airmass reaches the east coasts. However, still overall cold with night  frosts & freezing mist & fog patches inland in places away from coasts, mins generally as low as -5C to -2C but the Highlands and prone areas esp valleys inland across England may see as low as -8C. Generally always brighter by day in the west after early mist and fog clears away but the risk of some wintry flurries or longer spells of snow in the east though they may well be of sleet or rain nearer eastern coasts. Some wintry showers or outbreaks of mainly light snow reaching well inland too. Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be rather cold for most areas at 2C to 4C, possibly only -1C in the Highlands but more like 3-6C in the SW, S & W Wales & N Ireland.

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Some fog or freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend esp in northern & western parts
*Some moderate-severe frosts overnight more esp in central and northern parts with icy patches at times if there痴 any standing water
*Wintry outbreaks with some snow in eastern & SE areas at times esp from midweek with some accumulations in places likely

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high becoming moderate by Friday

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team

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markt
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« Reply #386 on: February 06, 2010, 06:01:25 pm »

Looks like another chilly week is on the cards again!  I just hope there's some clear patches so we get some blue sky.  I've just bought a 2nd etalon for my solar scope so I expect cloud for a good while yet  Tongue

I'm being hopeful for tuesday - its GCSE astronomy day at school, and if its clear the solar scope will be going into work with me Wink
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« Reply #387 on: February 06, 2010, 07:40:13 pm »

This thread will follow the synoptic evolution of the upcoming colder spell of weather...

Friday's low is now moving away SE, pushed SE into Europe by a WNW Jet Core running into the Mediterranean Sea, marked warm advection is amplifying a marked Omega Block to the west of the UK, to the NE a strong trough is being forced SE as it comes up against a large block over Siberia.  A strong Jet Stream is leaving the Eastern United States. Marked High level warming continues to be noted above 200mbs in the Polar Region.

The upper pattern looks set to become markedly blocked over the coming week with high pressure developing across Northern REgions as the strong trough moves SE and disrupts to the ESE of the British Isles.  Whilst there is now reasonable agreement on this - there is a wide variety of detail differences which will need to be ironed out over the coming days.

A fairly sunny and mild day across parts of the SW and South today with 10C being recorded in places , however the airmass is cooling slowly and the b/l is deepening.  The Norrth Sea has filled in with low cloud today as this process has continued, and the holes over Eastern England have filled in (HRV Imagery shows this).  Remaining breaks across the South and West will fill in tonight, though west of the Welsh mountains and maybe the far SW - seeing some breaks continuing.  Becoming chilly overnight with increasingly low visibilities as we go through the night - though the NAE has gone somewhat into overdrive with its <50m areas, however the general idea of a deterioration in vis and cloud, mist and patchy fog develop is consistent with other models. 

Sunday is a colder and duller day for most, though some sunshine over parts  of Western Scotland and Western Coastal areas of England and Wales. Elsewhere largely cloudy and dull, the B/L continuing to slightly deepen and this allow for an increasing risk of drizzle and later snow grains to develop as colder 850mb and 950mb air is advected SW (slow but steady cold advection from now on)

Later on Sunday a Shortwave comes down the N Sea, this has some weak vorticity forcing assoc with it and will increase ascent sufficiently enough to generate some light Rain/ Sleet and Snow  across the East and SE, this producing 1-2cm across inland SE and E Anglia, though the ground is somewhat warmer so accumulations slow to generate in most places.  Again dull in most places away from the West.

Now as we go through the week, the High and its assoc upper blocking ridges NE towards the Faeroes as the cold block slips South over Scandinavia, then into Germany and the Netherlands.  There is considerable variation in the shape, speed and orientation of this trough as it disrupts.  A quick study of the EPS and GFS Ensemble postage stamps indicates the spread in solutions which mean detail differences in the actual weather even though the overall trend is clear.  There is reasonable agreement from the main deterministic models of the GFS, UKMO GM and High Res ECWMF, of the trough coming SSW into the Netherlands and Western Germany, then it slips South, with an arm reaching NW and rotating SW across the UK with an easterly airflow becoming established after that.  The ECM has been insistent that the build of pressure to the North of the UK (to the rear of the confluent part of the trough) will be greater than the UKMO, with the GFS somewhat undecided about exactly how much it wants to build pressure.  The 06Z and 12Z Operational Runs have seen lower pressures than their corresponding 00 and 18Z Runs.   The ECMWF was somewhat at the top of Its ensemble range with the pressure build - though it would not surprise me to see the ECM being proved correct, but perhaps a compromise of 4-5mbs off the ECM would be more appropriate. 

Sunnier weather comes SW into most parts mid week, but with increasing Snow Showers in eastern parts.  Cold in these areeas, and feeling cold everywhere - though in the sun, numerically it wont be that low 3-5C in most places, though over higher ground 1-4C and generally colder later in the week as the lower level airmass comes from a less maritime source.  Frost occuriung overnight where skies are clear- dropping to nr zero where cloud persists.

Risk of more significant Snow across the SE and East Anglia later on Weds and Thursday as the cold pool arrives and swings forcing SW towards these areas. SNow becoming heavier and more persistent leading to some accumulations in places with a cold wind.  Kent and E Anglia seeing potential for more Sig Snow. A colder end to the week - Daytime Maxes largely 1-3C, though a little milder in the WEstern and Northern Areas and sub zero over High Ground.

The cold pool sinks SE away for Friday with a cold Easterly, the 12Z GFS brings another cold pool west into the Weekend as does the ECMWF (though the ECM is much slower with the 1st one so its correspondingly slower with the 2nd) with an increasing Risk of more general sleet / Snow developing.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
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martinastro
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« Reply #388 on: February 07, 2010, 06:20:33 pm »

Well the Gloom has arrived !  HRV imagery this morning confirms a fiarly uniformed blanket of Stratus covering most of the UK. The 00Z Ascents indicate a fairly deep inversion with a moist b/l (Ekofisk has it to around 8000ft with extremely dry air above this)

West is best in this set up and cloudbreaks are evident over SW Scotland, Cumbria, NW Wales (doing v well) and parts of the SW.  The cloud Fields from the 16KM ECMWF and 12 KM NAE are doing quite well and comparison of the T+9 fields vs HRV Imagery confirms the models are doing ok, though both miss the hole over the English Channel.  Stratus is more liable to break over Western Areas through today, whilst over the east its likely to continue to be very dull with an increasing trend towards drizzle (and tonight Snow grains developing) as the B.L deepens further as a shortwave runs around the developing ridge to the NW of the UK.

There continues to be rather large disagreement on the shape and orientation of the upcoming trough disruption (you only have to compare the 00Z GFS, vs 06Z GFS to see this let alone other models)

For Tuesday and Weds, there is reasonable agreemnt on a fairly anticyclonic N'ly / NNE'ly covering most parts - but with colder air in place in the east - some snow showers are likely to occur- Wet Bulb Freezing Levels are around 200-300m meaning snow above 100-150m generally with any accumulations minimal below 200m. Sunshine further west, but with Frosts overnight which could be sharp in places under the ridge axis.

Later in the week - the cold pool comes SSW into Germany (intensity and speed rather uncertain) and then swings a lobe of this west across the UK introducing a ENE flow.  However the GFS, UKMO and ECM seem to entangle a weak thermal zone coming SSW from Western Norway into the trough as it comes west, with assoc complications w.r.t snow and sleet coming west.  Detail impossible at this range - other than to say - a more cyclonic and potentially more wintry end to the week, esp in the east and Southeast. 

Though confidence is low for detail - moderate for overall evolution...  However given the cold pool is weakening as it disrupts, this spell does not look esp severe at this stage either in terms of snowfall or low temps.

Paul
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martinastro
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« Reply #389 on: February 10, 2010, 05:33:07 pm »

I'm really liking the GFS model run for next week, if the model run does indeed get support then we could be seeing a Nly or NEly air flow by Mon onwards with a chance of heay snow showers from a possible polar low. Also, there's just enough instability over inland areas to produce widespread convection - thundersnow is a possiblity.  Smiley
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