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Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?

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Author Topic: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?  (Read 18768 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #255 on: January 08, 2010, 11:40:24 pm »

Absolutely stunning Tyler!!!. I have been following you, Chris, and Mike on facebook (as you know) for the latest atmos images and have been blown away by the quality. Best of luck to all three of you for the next photo session, whether it be the Hill, or the Bend.

Congrats on SW by the way.  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #256 on: January 08, 2010, 11:47:34 pm »

GFS showing snow showers moving across from the east Sat to Tues, after that it's back to sleet and rain.
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« Reply #257 on: January 08, 2010, 11:59:03 pm »

19Z Update

Analysis

On the 500mb Chart a broad deep layer trough persists from Northern Scandinavia to the Western Med.  A broad Omega Ridge of High Pressure located to the West of the UK ridging NE.  A weak upper air disturbance is moving South into N Scotland and a strip of Vorticity coming south on the western edge of the trough is enhancing precip across N England and now into the Midlands

OVer the coming 48hrs a cutoff upper high forms a quasi stationary upper block to the north of the UK with High pressure at the surface intensifying over Scandinavia and stretching from South of Iceland to NW Russia. A New low over the Med  is moving northeast.

Discussion

Strip of Vorticity coming SW within the western portion of the upper trough is enhancing precip coming south across Yorks into the Midlands.  Trajectories and 4KM Meso take this SSW , though appears to be somewhat more organised than the T+6 frame from the 12Z run.  Take this SSW towards SE Wales and Bristol area.  SHowers moving into the SE are organising into a shower train across Kent some heavier ones giving 10-15cm overnight  also similar amounts over the Yorks Moors and 1-6cm elsewhere

Temps very low already across most of the UK -5 to -14C already across many parts, cloud coming south across Scotland tonight likely to interfere with overnight lows and make them somewhat erratic, clearest skies across Southern Scotland tonight and Eskdalemuir is expected to be very cold tonight. Along with parts of Wales and NIreland.

Saturday sees snow showers dying back to the SE as the vorticity strip moves away to the west with sunny skies in places but clouding over slowly from the SE with a very strong ENE wind developing across Southern England, F7s off the Kent coast later tomorrow.  Bitterly cold feel to the day.

Tomorrow night the Snow Showers organising again as another weakness develops aloft.  The showers organising into bands to give 10-15cm later tomorrow and overnight across the Downs in Kent and Sussex.

Into Sunday and the development of a complex process of slight warm advection / upgliding aloft combining with a new developing upper low which breaks forward from the main continental vortex and moves west to the south of the UK. The two effects combining to produce extensive precip across the South.   The GFS has finally come on board with developing some more extensive snow - though its a little out of sync in terms of timing when compared with the UKMO GM and ECMWF also somewhat further north.   There is reasonable agreement from the UKMO and consistent guidance from the ECMWF for outbreaks of Snow to develop and extend WNW across England into Wales on Sunday and persisting into Monday across Wales and The SW.  Heavier falls possible in places esp inland from coasts where added Sea temps providing additional moisture input.  ECMWF has up to 10cm across parts of the SW and Wales (Eastern Upslopes) and 5-10cm over other areas.  Northern Limit is less far north in the ECM, UKMO than in the GFS. Snow dies out from the East during sunday but persists into the night across the SW and Wales into Monday.

Monday sees Snow slowly dying out from the ESE but remaining very cold in places esp over newly fallen snow.

Into the Middle of next week there are considerable "detail" problems in the models.  The GFS tries to bring a low into the SW and has an incursion of milder air into the far south before colder air pushes back in post T+144.  The UKMO model brings a low into the Channel before the low complex sinks south and a SE is kept across most parts.  The ECM is rather strange tonight, it brings a low up the channel around T+102/T+108 crosses the far SE and into the Southern North Sea.  This would produce a sig amount of snow across most of England. A further low then comes into the SW around T+144, but this extends NE and introduces less cold air across the South but it remains cold in the North with further bands of rain pushing into the SOuth and turning to Snow across Northern England and Scotland. All the time high pressure persists across Scandinavia.

The variety of solutions for Mid next week onwards make any detail largely impossible to predict, but the general detail i feel remains the same, Low pressure coming increasingly close to the SW and South threatening Snow but also increasing the potential for less cold air to start to move north.  How quickly it does this and in what shape / form .. well the jury is still out on that one. .. 

TOI 19.29

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
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« Reply #258 on: January 09, 2010, 03:39:58 am »

The weather is changing! I've no idea what it's changing to & tonight is superficially very similar to last night, but we now appear to be flirting with the edge of a STRONG jet stream - the jet stream smearing which was absent last night & yesterday eveing (8th) is back with a vengance, stars smeared to blurred discs ~15 arc sec in diameter, Mars is just an undiffirentiated smear whereas last night it was showing considerable detail & sharply too though with considerable boiling.
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« Reply #259 on: January 09, 2010, 05:36:29 am »

Great shot Tyler, I saw the others on your website. It's been mighty cold on the Plains!! Be safe!
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« Reply #260 on: January 09, 2010, 08:41:00 am »

Great images Tyler!  Smiley
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« Reply #261 on: January 09, 2010, 09:37:07 am »

A fresh dusting of snow in Lisburn this morning which wasnt even forecast  Cheesy
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martinastro
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« Reply #262 on: January 09, 2010, 01:15:40 pm »

Nice image Scott, we got another dusting here. Things should get interesting soon. Here's the latest from the UKWW

11Z Update

An interesting week ahead !, Battle Lines drawn for the UK as fronts attempt to usher in milder Atlantic Weather.  However Large Dome of Cold low level air will not be moved easily and we can expect significant model errors in the coming week.  (Not helped by significant warming of the upper levels which allows models to return to a more mobile pattern more easily, it needs correct modelling of the lowest 150-180mbs of the atmosphere to predict the exact speed of the milder weather.  Push of Milder air towards the SW is driven by an extremely strong (over 200Knt Atlantic JEt Core) which leaves the Eastern Seaboard early next week and comes towards the European Sector.  This Jet Core essentially the driver for the Atlantic to give itself a push into the large European Block.  Hence the Battle Lines are drawn.  Data from the 00Z/06Z Model Suites indicates there are already significant phase differences over the Atlantic as early as T+60 which go on an enlarge and generate large discrepancies in the models by T+96/120 over NW Europe.   

The Operational GFS, ECMWF, and UKMO are at odds with the their Ensemble output in suggesting a rather quicker return of the Milder air. Climatologically speaking a slower breakdown is suggested. The ECM continues to spin a low along the Channel and into the far SE, the Holland Ensembles from the EPS suggest this is not favoured by the EPS, and the GFS Postage Stamps indicate a wide variety of timings and disruptions for the trough approaching the SW (highlighting the considerable uncertainty from Tues onwards)

There is potential for some very heavy snow initially in the SW and inland Southern England and then more generally across the Midlands and Northern England into Scotland.  This is not good news for many people and whilst most reading this will be encouraging of more snow it should be remembered that significant falls of more snow across many central and northern areas could bring massive disruption.  There is some EPS support for some less cold air to make it into the SW midweek and then to some other southern coastal counties but limit northward after that is massively questionable at this stage. 

Now back to the short term - We have snow showers in NE England - these giving 1-4cm in places, Rain/Sleet and Snow crossing N Ireland and Snow developing across Kent and East Sussex.  The Wind is picking up across the SE and this is driving modified by SST airmass into Eastern and SE Coastal areas - hence precip type of rain/sleet is possible on exposed coastal strips - elsewhere WBFL's suggest all precip inland will be of Snow.  The snow drier and less wet than previous falls and tending to accumulate more rapidly. 1:15 is prob a good idea for comparison of water equivs (i.e 1mm of of rain gives 1.5cm of Snow)

However this gives somewhat a worrying problem in the SE, as the higher resolution models indicate a persistent line of Snow developing just SE of Greater london through the rest of today, lasting through tonight with up to 14mm given a gridpoint on the M25/M20 Junction area, this could equite to around 20cm of snow, the line stretches just SE of London down to Brighton with 7-20cm possible in this zone over the next 24hrs. The snow a mix of Convective and Dynamic and likely to lead to significant disruption in the SE if it occurs.  THe NAE has been quite persistent with the idea so it needs to watched carefully.

Elsewhere Showers streaming into NE England are penetrating at times into the Midlands and EAst Wales giving a dusting.  Temps are stiill well below zero in many places, but the breeze and some sunshine is helping to push temps above zero (just) in parts of the South and coastal areas elsewhere

Over the COntinent clouds are increasing and a complex interaction is beginning to occur as a developing upper low and upper fronts develop (these essentially through isentropic upgliding of warmer air which pushed north from the Med, crossed the ALps and is now elevated, 1000-500mb thickness vlaues reflecting this but 1000-900mb thickness values largely unchanged insdicating the warming is now well elevated. Outbreaks of Snow are developing and are pushing NW and developing at the same time.  Outbreaks of Light snow covering much of the SE by tomorrow morning and extending WNW during the day - There remains considerable uncertainty in this aspect, GFS continues to highlight areas further north whereas ECMWF prefers more southern parts, hence there remains question marks.  However after considering all output i have drafted a potential snow accumulation map for the next 48hrs across England and Wales and N Ireland.  These are estimates and there is considerable uncertainty in the detail.  The Snow looks set to transfer WNW during the coming 48hrs before slowly dying out on Monday. UPslopes of Wales, Eastern Pennines and Dartmoor likely favoured - esp as the wind veers more east from its NE.  Convective elements forming in the English Channel with a frictional convergence zone indicated offshore and moving into the SOuth Hams and Dartmoor regions of Devon and perhaps fringing southcoasts elsewhere  depending on the exact locations of the convergence.  A quieter interlude then later Monday into Early Tues before the potential for BIG problems to move towards the SW...

A Final point to note - whilst NW Europe remains cold - its unusually warm over the SE Med - Israel, N Egypt, Cyprus enjoying very warm weather whilst parts of Southern Spain, Gibraltar and parts of Italy and S France are very, very Wet.  Infact its been one of the rainiest ends to DEcember and starts to Jan in Southern and SW Iberia for a good many years.

Fig 1 - Expected Snowfalls - UK over the next 48hrs.



Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
« Last Edit: January 09, 2010, 01:17:27 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #263 on: January 09, 2010, 03:02:35 pm »

UK/Ireland precip-type charts from Sun-Tues from Netweather GFS. Lots of uncertainty but it does look interesting. Back to sleet and rain after Tues so enjoy it while you can, further snow is possible later in the week in Britain.







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martinastro
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« Reply #264 on: January 09, 2010, 04:51:58 pm »

UKWW....

FORECAST FOR Monday 11th January- Sunday 17th January 2010

ISSUED 9th January 1215Z

SPECIAL NOTE/WARNING REGARDING POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD

There is likely to be further significant snow at times in places esp E Wales, the English Midlands & parts of the north this week, drifting at times in strong winds, along with icy roads, some severe frosts & freezing fog patches. Severe SE’ly gales may affect the SW & W Wales on Tuesday for a time.
Travelling conditions are likely to be difficult and possibly dangerous at times. If in doubt about your travel then postpone or cancel it. Listen to local weather updates on the radio for up to date information, road closures etc. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY SUMMARY 

Another cold or very cold week to come weatherwise for most and potentially another wintry one too for many areas but this week more especially in the central parts of the UK, though by later in the week and the weekend another easterly flow may keep it drier though still cold though the east & SE may become cloudier and see further sleet showers at times later on and the far west and SW remain milder with outbreaks of rain. 

Monday 11th looks likely to see an easterly flow across most areas with high pressure to the north of the UK and weak low pressure to the south. A slight-moderate early frost in the Highlands, with icy patches on roads, some mist and fog or freezing fog patches about to along with a lot of low cloud. Light sleet or snow outbreaks for many across England & Wales, more likely rain though in the south and south west. Some local accumulations, mainly over hills. A moderate frost & icy patches reforming by evening in the Highlands. Temperatures should stay well below average at -1C to +2C in most areas today and only -1 to -3C in the Highlands but perhaps up to 4-7C in the far SW and near some north western coasts too. 

Tuesday 12th will probably see low pressure to the south west develop and push fronts slowly NE across the SW & W Wales by morning as a strong SE’ly flow develops in the SW and W Wales with severe gales on coasts and exposed spots for a time. A cloudy night for many though with further outbreaks of sleet or snow and a slight frost along with locally mist and fog patches too, esp over high ground. A slight-moderate frost in the Highlands; icy patches and some freezing mist patches & low cloud about in Scotland. The frost may be severe locally in some prone glens in the Highlands. By evening the rain band lying across central southern parts of England, central Wales and NW England and it may well turn increasingly to sleet & snow here for a time. There may be some accumulations, esp over high ground with drifting in strong SE’ly winds. Wintry outbreaks still affecting the north & Highland areas of Scotland. However another slight frost developing for inland areas of the northern UK, with icy patches. Temperatures generally staying well below average at 0 to +2C but only -2C in the Highlands, though up to 3-5C in the southwest and S Wales & along the south coast and 7-9C in the far SW.

Wednesday 13th looks to see low pressure to the south and SW with high pressure over Scandinavia with a moderate SE'ly flow across the UK. A weakening band of rain sleet and snow continuing still overnight and by day across western & some central areas, still heavy at times with more snow accumulating in places and drifting too, mainly over hills. The far south and SW staying rather drier after early rain or sleet clears away. Some  sunshine after an early slight-moderate frost with icy patches about in the far north and another moderate-severe frost soon setting in after dusk inland here.  Temperatures feeling cold at -1C to 2C generally though maybe up to 4- 7C for a time in the far west & NW coasts and through the SW, with 9C in Cornwall. 


Thursday 14th looks likely to see another low develop to the SW in Biscay but moving ESE so only allowing its fronts to nudge into the SW and far south again. A strengthening ESE’ly flow for most further north, abating later. A slight-moderate frost at first away from coasts with icy patches and freezing mist or fog patches about in N and Highland Scotland but cloudier with sleety outbreaks further south down through into northern England, snow over hills, some further accumulations here. Cloudy and murky with light or moderate rain at times in the far south west, maybe some sleet & snow over hills in S Wales and central southern England. Another cold raw day for most, max temperatures about -1C to 2C but maybe 3-5C in the far west, near southern coasts and up to 7-9C again in the SW.     

Friday 15th seems on the whole to see little change as low pressure lies to the south or SE and high pressure over to the NE. A lot of low cloud about for most especially over high ground with outbreaks of mainly light rain & sleet with hill snow. The slightly milder weather will struggle to work very far NE but as the flow comes off the warmer North Sea the east will be milder with drizzle at times too. A few sleet or snow outbreaks still over higher ground though, such as the North York Moors but drying up from the east later as colder air moves west.  More low cloud and fog patches will likely return to many inland central and western areas across the UK by the evening.  Temperatures generally a rather cold 0-3C by day for most though up to 4-5C around the eastern and SE coastal counties with 6-9C in the far west and SW but only up to -2C over the Highlands.   

Saturday 16th and Sunday 17th seems likely to see a colder ESE ‘ly flow develop again for most parts with high pressure still up to the northeast and low pressure to the west or SW.  Some night frost in places away from east coasts, generally only as low as -2C but the Highlands may see as low as -7C. Near eastern coasts and in the SE a lot of cloud and some showery outbreaks likely through Saturday and into Sunday, with the risk of sleet on high ground still. In the west and central parts brighter with weak sunny periods but always the risk of some rain I the extreme west and SW. Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be fairly cold for most areas at 1C to 3C, possibly only -2C in the Highlands but more like 5-8C in the SW and locally 10C in Cornwall.   

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

 *Some freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend more esp in the north 
*Risk of moderate or heavy snow in places, esp in central & northern areas but the SE, south of England & Midlands is at risk at times too, probably more esp over hills until midweek.   
*Risk of drifting snow in strong E-SE winds at times, more esp where large accumulations still lie.
*Some moderate frosts overnight in the north, locally severe in the Highlands glens still with icy patches at times esp where there's a lot of surface snow and frozen water
*Avalanche risk in places in mountains if milder air moves in
*Icy lakes & ponds may melt or re-freeze and be hazardous

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high becoming moderate-poor by Thursday
-----
Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team
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martinastro
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« Reply #265 on: January 09, 2010, 06:13:26 pm »

This is becoming a famous image, it was captured by an orbiting Sat on Jan 7th and snows the entire UK covered in Ice similar to Greenland. It has amazing detail. Credit: NASA

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/2010007-0107/GreatBritain.A2010007.1150.250m.jpg
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« Reply #266 on: January 09, 2010, 06:51:43 pm »

Exellent!  That's going to become an iconic image for the UK for this winter.   Thanks for posting a hi-res one martin Wink

The forecast for the next week or so isn't good!  It's going to make for quite an interesting spell of weather watching.

Today has been isolated snow flurries, giving everywhere a light dusting again, temp around -2c.  Probably somemore snow flurries / showers coming in tonight, the temp now is -4c.  Went on a bit of a drive about this morning, all the main roads are clear round here now, however side / minor roads are treacherous with an inch thick layer of compacted snow that is slowly but surely turning to ice.
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martinastro
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« Reply #267 on: January 09, 2010, 06:55:23 pm »

Next week really does look interesting, Met O have weather warnings out as far as Wed now for distruptive snow. Latest models are not going for an Atlantic break down either - very interesting!

Here's a BBC Newsline vid clip showing some of the Loughs frozen over in N. Ireland...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8450274.stm

Somesone sent me images today of the River Bann complete frozen over, there where people walking on it.
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martinastro
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« Reply #268 on: January 09, 2010, 07:29:24 pm »

Here's the Grillagh River outside Maghera on Jan 8th before sunset, it was frozen completely. Looked great with the low Sun and freezing fog.

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« Reply #269 on: January 09, 2010, 08:27:01 pm »

Great stuf Martin!  Wink Wink

Just to jump forward a month or 3 here temporarily, when all this ice / snow finally does melt proper I have a feeling the EA will have flood watches out.  However, before then is going to be VERY interesting  Cool
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