Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?

[markt]

Ok, I thought I would kick this one off as i've certainly been thinking about what this winter likely has in store for us...

If you look on the Met Office, they have one of their usual classic forecasts on there - everything is average http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html , then cover their backs by saying there is a chance of it being colder.  Heck, I could get a job with these guys and make such startling predictions!

One of my favourites is Joe Bastardis European Blog on Accuweather http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather - atleast he puts a little more meat into his forecast.  If Joe is correct in his detail then we can no doubt expect the BBC weather to be talking about the 'arctic pipeline' opening up.

I'm no expert in coming up with these long range forecasts, I just like to take it all in and make a few decisions myself based on what i've read.  I personally hope for a winter with some proper winter weather - the years of dull, mild winters are depressing.  It would be nice to get some periods of proper winter snowfall, but then also have the cold clear spells also to take in the winter constellations.

Has anybody else got any links to other winter forecasts or discussions?  Could be interesting to see which of the forecasts are right... 

[martinastro]

Netweather.tv do a long range forecast, which gets updated all the time....

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Choose your location and see what it says.

Some people reckon this could be a very cold Winter. Parts of NE Europe are expected to have one of the coldests Winters for a long time, with possibly the UK and Ireland getting some of this, however other sources disagree with this.

I would love a good Winter with deep snow, feels like al ong time since I've had a good fall here, maybe 2006 when it snowed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, that was fantastic, proper snow too. I would actually prefer the big Atlantic wind storms and severe cold fronts over the snow though with some thundersnow thrown in. Well, it will be interesting to see what happens.

[markt]

An intersting update on Joe Bastardis blog this week regards the European winter:  He reckons the pressure pattern we have at the moment is typical of what we will be seeing when winter decides to 'bite' us in Europe...

This could be an interesting one, as today, for me it has been pouring down all day despite the fact the needle on my barometer is swung round all the way to the right as a result of the high pressure we are under...  Hmmm, gotta love British weather 

Anyway, i've quoted his text below...

WEDNESDAY
WOW!!!

While I expect November to be tranquil in Europe, what you see now is a "warmup" for winter as the overall winter pattern is one that favors the cold where it is going now not only in Europe, but the United States and the Far East also.

But check this out of the ECMWF site (a favorite of mine, and the model that I think is the most useful out there) http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html

It shows the extremity of this cold we are seeing now.

Again watch the winter... the forecast here has it cold across much of Europe, which is different from Hadley, though I have great respect for them. But what you see now, though backing down in November, may telegraph what is coming later!

Now this is no more a sign of an ice age as warm events are a sign of the fiery abyss that some seem to think it is on the way. It is a hint from Mother Nature, that she, not man, is in control no matter what our better angels or most devilish demons may tell us.

Ciao for now.

****


GET USED TO IT

FROM THE AUSTRIA TIMES

http://austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2009-10-12/17147/Early_snow_records_set_to_be_broken


While this is not the "start" of winter, keep in mind the winter idea issued for you here is calling for a harder-than-normal winter in much of Europe. Combine this with wetter than normal in the southern and eastern part of Europe, and I think this is the start of the banner year for the Alps. In fact, since it's already snowed there and I did have a previous "get used to it" post, this is just the second round.

There is still some pleasant fall weather left, and in fact I think a nice November is on the way for Europe, with above-normal temps across much of the continent. But the winter hound will be waiting and will come calling this year.... Make no mistake my ideas are colder than the Hadley Center... they were last winter also.

I do think the Hadley Center took too much grief for the summer in the northwest. While it was wet, they were right about it being warm. The data does not lie, when left untouched and here is London.

TOTALS FOR EGLL HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 88 TOTAL PRECIP 6.54 LOWEST TEMPERATURE 46 TOTAL SNOWFALL 0.0 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 64.7 NORMAL PRECIP 6.30 DEPARTURE FROM NORM +3.0 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 104 HEATING DEGREE DAYS 164 NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 307

That is a nice deviation from normal. However, we are in disagreement this winter, though we weren't in disagreement on the summer.

Anyone for some yodeling in the Alps.. just bundle up.

Link to his blog here >>>  http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

[martinastro]

Thanks for the information Mark, that's very interesting. Always good to get several opinions on the forecast. Parts of Europe will be turning very cold in the near future so perhaps we will be in for a cold Winter this year. Those in Nebraska have already had a significant early snow fall event.

[Roman White]

Parts of Europe will be turning very cold in the near future so perhaps we will be in for a cold Winter this year.

Well, I can't say anything about next winter (although I hope there'll be much snow), but I can say a bit about the current weather situation. There is a powerful LP area above Poland, which causes inflow of arctic air into W & central Europe (thanks for the link to austrian website btw), and on the other hand, Ukraine experiences southern and SW winds during last week or so, hence the rainy air masses from Balkans come here one by one, with some clear spells between them. Along with that, the temperatures keep relatively high, varying mostly from +10 to +18C. There is also a powerful anticyclone above Central Asia, which affects the weather in S Russia as well as sometimes in E Ukraine. It has not actually reached Poltava, but on some days in October we had max temperatures up to +23C - that's pretty high for mid October. My statistics for the first half of October in Poltava reveal that the deviation form normal is +3°C, however it may be sufficiently colder in the end of the month, making an average temperature closer to its normal value.

[markt]

Netweather updated it's winter forecast yesterday - certainly for my part of the world - the West Midlands, a colder but drier than average winter is forecast.  Given the unseasonably mild temperatures we're experiencing this week I suspect when the wind does change we will notice it!

Here's the link anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=;loc=WMids  you can change to your particular location with the drop down menu towards the top of the page

[Roman White]

This Saturday (Haloween) is already a good day for winter. 
Last night it was -4.3°C in Poltava (record low for October), and now there is an extremely sunny morning! 

[markt]

This week just gone we've had record 'warm' temperatures here in the UK... 

[Roman White]

Yahoo! It seems that the winter here is not far away! Today there is first snow in Poltava
At the moment the sky is partly cloudy, the Sun is shining low in SW, but a mini-snowfall from a Sc cloud in north lasted for a few minutes just before I wrote this post. Temperature +1C, and it was slightly below zero last night.

[martinastro]

Nice one Roman - I'm jealous 

This time last year we already had our first snow fall before Halloween...this year its very mild and wet.

[Roman White]

Well, yesterday it was actually nothing, but today I see that it is snowing intensively in E Ukraine at the moment. And I have also seen that southern Russia (Rostov - Krasnodar) experienced heavy snowfall last night, you can see it too: http://www.astronomy.ru/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=21658.0;attach=207677;image
All I can say about my area that probably it may be gently snowing today & tomorrow, but it isn't likely that the winter will begin until December.

[Roman White]

All I can say about my area that probably it may be gently snowing today & tomorrow (...)

I guessed right! 
Now it is gently snowing, sky is covered with St fra. & Ac trans., temperature -2°C (mostly below zero today).
It may be no more snow here in a week (or two) ahead, because +14C is forecasted for next Sunday.

[paulster78]

Our weather at the minute is typical of this time of the year with wind and rain, maybe a few dry days in between and the odd altlantic storm thrown in for good measure.  On one hand i like this weather for the possibilities of extreme wind and rain events with even the chance of a thunderstorm/tornado, but nothing beats a lovely frosty morning when everything is pure white and im out walking in the country with my dog and camera.  A few weeks of frost and snow now that would be nice. Everyone will think im mad after this!

[Roman White]

A few weeks of frost and snow now that would be nice. Everyone will think im mad after this!

Absolutely not! I love this kind of weather (though it happens mostly in January)


 

[markt]

Great photo Roman!