Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?

[markt]

Well i've finally got some snow! 

Got to work today and by about 9am the heavy band of snow moving south passed over us, dropped about 2-4".  By 11am they'd sent everybody home.   It's actually not melting here for a change, even larger roads are quite slushy.  I've got my eye on the rainfall radar though, the next 24hrs could have quite a bit more snow or no more at all...  It's been snowing lightly on and off since the main band came through.

Those are some pretty cold temps btw Roman! 

[martinastro]

Nice one Mark  , snowing here at the mom.


19Z Update

Developments now taking shape as the strong upper trough comes SE and low pressure begins to develop along it.   Upper  circulation centre is tracking south nr Sea Area Lundy and is bringing more Sleet / Hail and Snow onshore across the SW.  Elsewhere the Barometer is falling and and that Low pressure is developing in Sea Area Portland around 999mbs.  The Frontal Structure is beginning to get more organised and its becoming more transparent as to the evolution.  The front coming south across N England and N Wales is effectively going to merge with the southern frontal zone and will essentially develop into a curled occlusion type structure over the next 6 hrs.  This rotating ENE in the South and drawing south across Wales, West Midlands to eventually become more ENE/WSW with time. 

Warmer air and assoc higher WBPT and WBFL's have been drawn NE ahead of the front - but away from the coasts the precip is heavy enough for snow to penetrate after a short while. Heavy Snow now occuring across Inland Hampshire and towards Surrey and Berkshire. This pushing NE towards London and the HOme COunties this evening and tonight where the ECM and GFS now indicate the heaviest snow will occur. 

Matching Radar to Model expectations indicates the T+6 frame from the NAE is OK as is the ECM and GFS, therefore there is reasonable confidence in the forecast tonight.  The front psuhing NE and also developing and revolving around to become more arc shaped overnight from Bristol to Oxford to the Chilterns to Sussex.  Parts of CS England incl Dorset now look likely to miss most of the activity tonight,  though we need to keep a careful eye on Radar as further bands develop and also exactly where the low pressure develops. Heaviest Snowfall around 20-30cm from Surrey, Berks into Bucks and the Chilterns, this includes the M4, M3, M40 corridors i highlighted this morning.

During tomorrow the low retreats south and the band which forms and pushes into the M4 corridor will push SSE and at the same time, further convergence type activity will form over the Channel and push NW towards the South Coast,  Models are keen to keep Snow going through much of tomorrow in Southern and CS England, though the EcM just seen is far less keen on this and prefers to fizzle the front out over Southern England without the frictional convergence zone boosting precip amounts.   It would be interesting to see the new High Res 16KM ECWMF's take on this...

Definately a very noteworthy Snow event developing over Southern England with many areas seeing 5-10cm and some places seeing 20-30cm, Areas west of London seeing the highest totals most likely.

More Snow comes into the East on Thursday assoc with another low.

The Latest ECMWF keeps the cold weather going for at least the next 10 days and the UKMO GM is equally blocked right through to day 6.  The GFS has a very different pressure pattern over the Western Atlantic which seems to impact things beyond day 5

The ECM has further heavy Snow at times over various parts of the UK right through the next 10 days...

Tomorrow morning starts with the Snow across The home COunties

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society

[markt]

Thanks for the update Martin.

Snowing quite steadily for me at the moment, and has been for several hours, about 6" lying now.  The more major roads are starting to snow over despite gritting, sideroads are soft, lying snow with people struggling to pass.  The 'snow line' has phoned me to say school is closed tomorrow (wahay!!) so I feel a later than usual nights on the cards to monitor the snows progress.  Looking at the rainfall radar and how this low pressure is developing I feel there's a bit more snow to come for me yet.  Not necessarily everyone will share my opinion, but it's nice to have some proper wintry weather. 

[martinastro]

I fully agree with you Mark, many are fed up with it but I love every min of it, feels like the way a Winter should be. There are no signs of ending on the models any time soon either 

Met O Severe weather warnings out for Wed

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest and Southwest England and Wales during Wednesday.

Widespread icy roads and pavements are expected during Wednesday.

Issued at: 1401 Tue 5 Jan

[martinastro]

Here's one of the minor roads here today, between Maghera and Tobermore, compacted ice concealed by a dusting of snow, 5mph was required to drive along it, nothing more or else.

[martinastro]

Big snow storm with thunder and lightning being reported in SE Ireland area for the last few hours!

Coastguards reported two 600m high waterspouts over the coast of Britain this morning.

[martinastro]

Lough Fea has frozen solid and people are driving across it in quads and CARS!, police are guarding it to prevent any deaths. Check out front page of Newsletter. Would love to get up there for photo opps!

[paulster78]

Just seen that on newsline there Martin, thats amazing although driving on it is pure madness I think. Wonder how thick the ice is.

[markt]

Woke up this morning to a steady 6" of snow everywhere.  Some early morning showers topped up accumulations, then, around midday the front passed south revealing beautifully clear skies - temperatures also fell and have been below freezing pretty much all day.  A lack of any gritting has meant other than tyre tracks the roads and pavements are in exactly state as they were first thing.  Sub zero temperatures are freezing it solid now which means tomorrow morning is going to be a skid pan.  We had over 1000 schools closed in the midlands today and i'm just wondering whether they will make the call to open tomorrow...  

Anybody got any heads up on whats supposed to be happening on sunday regards more snow?  

[Padraig OBrien]

Had Thundersnow today was great 5 inches snow lying here now -6.4c

[paulster78]

Dont know Mark, just that theres a weather watch issued for N.Ireland, Wales, Mid and south England for sunday.  About an inch of lying snow here, had a few flurries last night but nothing today clear skies and hardly above freezing all day, brutal cold tonight maybe -10 possible!!

[JohnC]

 Here in Gloucester  we got our first snowfall in this period last night and we woke up to 3.5 inches this morning.Tonight we're due to have  -5/6 C. Mind you they think the north of Scotland may get to -20C 

[martinastro]

Thanks for all the updates guys on what's happening in your parts of the country.

I seen the BBC NI coverage today and it's still hard to believe they are doing that, I think it's asking for death, that's a fairly deep Lough (I walk around it on a reg basis), it slants away off at the shore and drops in depth very quickly, if someone broke through it they would most certainly die, sadly, that's what's going to happen if people continue to mess with it, walking on it is bad enough, but driving... - 

What about the guy ice fishing? lol

Upgrade for Sunday, Met O have severe weather warnings out for NI and mainland Britain for heavy snow, at first I was confused because GFS didn't show any for NI, it's now been updated, check the precip type here....(click arrows to go forward in time)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

According to this netweather GFS, much of Ireland and Britain will get heavy snow on Sun, it will be interesting to see how this actually works out. Parts of S and E Ireland may get as much snow as England today, if it happens then the country will come to a stand still again!. Trying not to get excited about it until closer to the weekend.

[martinastro]

Oh yea I forgot, - the freezing temps and wind will create a wind  hill of - 20 C over the weekend for N Britain 

[martinastro]

19Z Update

The last of the Last nights Low pressure is now finally easing from the SE, and should be largely clear of the SE by Midnight.  The UK is then in a firmly blocked scenario.  An upper and surface high remains over Greenland.  A weak low is moving south through the developing ridge  (currently nr 62N 10W), this low coming South and reinforcing the block as high pressure then establishes itself to the North of the UK into Scandinavia as a new upper high develops nr the Faeroes.  The sharp upper trough currently stretching from Scandinavia to France will disrupt over the next 72 hrs with a cut off upper level low becoming slow moving over Southern Europe with an extension towards the British Isles.  OVer the Weekend a shortwave comes SW into the western end of this cutoff low and extends west forming a new cutoff low to the south of the UK with a surface inflexion across the southern British ISles bringing more snow.

The trend into next week is for less cold air to advect across the UK at least aloft, though with the lower level airmass likely to be coming from the continent, its likely to remain chilly to say the least.

Of more immediete concern are the constant snow showers streaming into NE England and the Polar Low type feature (not a true Polar Low) coming west across the North Sea, models indicate further persistent Snow showers coming into NE England tonight giving (another!) 10-15cm in places, as contour heights build we will gradually see a slow reduction.

The low over German Bight will comes west then SWto cross East Anglia and the SE later tomorrow and then relax west through the Eastern Channel into Friday.  Models will not advect the convection inland far enough, therefore further Snow sHowers coming into East Anlgia and SE England later tomorrow, A very cold and icy night first with snow freezing quite hard overnight tonight.   Snow Showers coming into the SE on Friday and extending west at times giving another several cms in the east and lesser amounts inland.  However largely dry now for the next few days across SW England , Wales, NW England, Midlands with sunshine by day and harsh frosts overnight.  its really the East and SE for any snow over the next 72hrs.

Late on Sat, into Sunday developments become complex, but I am glad to see more agreement between the GFS, ECM and UKMO GM in developing the new upper level low to the SOuth with a surface weakness moving west. This instability spreads snow into Southern England on Sunday and north into Wales, the SW and the Midlands into Sunday night. Higher WBFL's coming into the SE and East Anglia meaning more of a mix of rain/sleet and snow here with windward coasts likely to see more liquid precip, however inland we will see Snow with further possible significant accumulations coming North.

INto next week and GFS and UKMO have low pressure ganging up to the SW of the UK, the GFS taking this NE and allowing milder air into the UK, however the 12Z ECM remains firmly blocked with a low running east over N France threatening more problems (though airmass is generally less cold but still negative dewpoints inland) with high pressure remaining firmly in change to the north of the UK right out to t+240.  The GFS Ensemble was more mixed with a scattergun of solutions portrayed after the 14th ...

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society