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Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?

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Author Topic: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?  (Read 18117 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2009, 09:38:47 pm »

Check out the latest models for Dec 25th...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

Good chance of snow for Christmas, or at least crisp Winter conditions.  Smiley
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markt
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2009, 09:13:59 pm »

The models are developing quite interestingly for the winter period now, if anything there's a delay in their stated release date...  One thing that seems for certian is that eastern europe is in for a very cold high pressure winter, the atlantic is set to be warmer, low pressure.  Where the debate becomes interesting and the detail scant is where these 2 airmasses will meet and have their 'interaction'.   

Check out the links for more detail...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Lot of technical detail here but I quite like this one >>>

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=
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markt
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« Reply #17 on: December 06, 2009, 03:00:08 pm »

Quoted from Joe Bastardis blog on Accuweather...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

SATURDAY 5 PM
WINTER ON THE HORIZON DEC 15-25...BACKS IN FROM THE EAST.


While the next 7-10 days are relatively tranquil as the extreme rainfall of November has relaxed and there is not alot of cold in the pattern..right now. But the hounds of winter are gathering and whether this is the start of the pattern that I am looking for mid and late winter, or just a prelim glimpse, the threat of major eastern and central Euro cold, that can develop west with time, is on the horizon.


While the ridge is over western Europe overall the next 5 days, it will reposition itself northwest to over Greenland and iceland between the 15th and 20th. This will mean pressures build over Scandinavia and just in time for the Christmas season large amounts of cold air will spread back south and west through Europe.

Again, this is in line with ideas in the winter forecast, that we would see more than normal blocking and with it, the threat of cold working back to the west. Such a pattern while still 10 days or more away could last right through the New Years and supply much of europe, though centered in the east... with a cold holiday season.

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****


Maybe this yucky wet Atlantic weather we have will break and we'll get some seasonally cold weather?
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martinastro
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« Reply #18 on: December 07, 2009, 11:19:43 pm »

Models are showing high pressure buliding for the second half of Dec with cold weather on the way. There may even be a chance of snow for some areas over Christmas! - let's not jinx it  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2009, 11:24:17 pm »

Or maybe not, this was posted by Matt from the UKWW....

-3C 850 mb Wet Potential Temps across the E and SE for a time next Tues/Wed if you believe ECMWF 12z, blasting down from the NE (exceptionally cold air floods SW out of NW Russia across E Scandinavia a day or two before, and warms slightly as it heads SW). However, as Paul says it is mainly Europe that is affected thereafter, as upstream developments (over NE USA and E Atlantic) would eventually favour a 'toppling' warm ridge across the UK by the end of next week, rather than a prolonged easterly flow.

So, chance of a couple of cold easterly incursions. The first this Sat and a second, potentially much colder one the following Tues/Wed with something briefly less cold in between as a low slides SSE down the N Sea and brings a shot of Atlantic air with it. Growing confidence on the intial one (should lead to a frosty weekend over S and E areas at least) but still moderate/low confidence on the 2nd IMO.

Thereafter, quite tricky to pin down exactly what will happen but this will hinge on factors such as the upstream pattern over the USA/Canada and E Atlantic and whether the flow will remain strongly meridional here or not. Unless the jet stream is forced south under the block by deep trough in the eastern/central Atlantic, a more zonal flow to our west will not favour prolonged blocking. GFS 12z, IMO, is more than likely going OTT and should be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage!
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« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2009, 11:30:42 pm »

I,ll be happy if we get one or two clear nights next sun/mon for the geminids!
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« Reply #21 on: December 07, 2009, 11:39:32 pm »

The bbc forecast have high pressure building this weekend and lasting most of next week if not it all i guess time will tell the only danger with it will be fog
so with some luck the geminids might be good.


jonathan.
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« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2009, 10:26:44 am »

The winter began here yesterday (Dec.07) as the temperature dropped below zero (today it is -2...0C) and probably will not rise back, but it may be even colder (-5...-10C) next week. It was slightly snowing yesterday, but there's still nothing on the ground.
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« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2009, 03:11:59 pm »

god ive missed the weather for the past week had a dose of the  dare i say it swine flue easing now wudnt wish it on my worst enemy to catch it but i hear there is a shivering spell on the way
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martinastro
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« Reply #24 on: December 08, 2009, 03:15:26 pm »

Sorry to hear that Padraig, I take it you are fine now?. You are very lucky.

High pressure and cold weather does look to be on the cards very soon, will it be the bad kind with stagnant grey clouds or will it be crisp clear skies with frost and a risk of snow?...time will tell.  Smiley

Glad Winter has finally arrived in Ukraine Roman, it won't be log before you get those crazy sub zero temps again.
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« Reply #25 on: December 08, 2009, 04:07:08 pm »

Quote
You are very lucky.
What, lucky to get it, lucky to survive or what?

About 3 weeks ago I had a dose of something which was almost imperceptible at the time but left me feeling like I was recovering from a dose of flu - you know, the tiredness, depression, aches & pains & do on.

BTW swine flu being Mexican in origin, the trick with the hat and the bottle of whiskey doesn't work, unless the whiskey is substituted by tequila. (Go to bed, place hat at foot of bed, drink from bottle till second hat appears, when you sober up the 'flu will have flown).
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martinastro
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« Reply #26 on: December 08, 2009, 05:56:53 pm »

Lucky to survive  Smiley

Interesting remedy there Brian, I like the sound of that better than any pills. Do I need to where a hat though?, and if so, what kind?.
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« Reply #27 on: December 08, 2009, 06:05:02 pm »

It was a lot of pains throughout my body could hardly move to look out the window to see what the weather was like but one min i was pulling the covers up, then throwing them off me hot and cold ya know
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« Reply #28 on: December 11, 2009, 08:04:56 am »

It is snowing here every day for already 5 days, but the first sufficient snowfall this year occured last night, hence there is the first snow on the ground. This nice snowfall doens't stop at the moment too.  Smiley

P.S. Temperature is -1C but I guess the snow will not melt in a week ahead.
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Roman White
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« Reply #29 on: December 11, 2009, 09:01:55 am »

(...) Roman, it won't be log before you get those crazy sub zero temps again.
Hey Martin, did you guess it or watch the forecast recently?  Wink

An arctic air mass will probably start going southwestwards on Sun/Mon night, and reach Ukraine on Tue/Wed night, causing -12C here in Poltava and maybe even -20C in E Ukraine. I hope Meteoblue tells true, and there will be some clear skies next week along with the frost.  Roll Eyes
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