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Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?

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Author Topic: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?  (Read 27827 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #255 on: January 09, 2010, 04:51:58 pm »

UKWW....

FORECAST FOR Monday 11th January- Sunday 17th January 2010

ISSUED 9th January 1215Z

SPECIAL NOTE/WARNING REGARDING POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD

There is likely to be further significant snow at times in places esp E Wales, the English Midlands & parts of the north this week, drifting at times in strong winds, along with icy roads, some severe frosts & freezing fog patches. Severe SE’ly gales may affect the SW & W Wales on Tuesday for a time.
Travelling conditions are likely to be difficult and possibly dangerous at times. If in doubt about your travel then postpone or cancel it. Listen to local weather updates on the radio for up to date information, road closures etc. 

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WEEKLY SUMMARY 

Another cold or very cold week to come weatherwise for most and potentially another wintry one too for many areas but this week more especially in the central parts of the UK, though by later in the week and the weekend another easterly flow may keep it drier though still cold though the east & SE may become cloudier and see further sleet showers at times later on and the far west and SW remain milder with outbreaks of rain. 

Monday 11th looks likely to see an easterly flow across most areas with high pressure to the north of the UK and weak low pressure to the south. A slight-moderate early frost in the Highlands, with icy patches on roads, some mist and fog or freezing fog patches about to along with a lot of low cloud. Light sleet or snow outbreaks for many across England & Wales, more likely rain though in the south and south west. Some local accumulations, mainly over hills. A moderate frost & icy patches reforming by evening in the Highlands. Temperatures should stay well below average at -1C to +2C in most areas today and only -1 to -3C in the Highlands but perhaps up to 4-7C in the far SW and near some north western coasts too. 

Tuesday 12th will probably see low pressure to the south west develop and push fronts slowly NE across the SW & W Wales by morning as a strong SE’ly flow develops in the SW and W Wales with severe gales on coasts and exposed spots for a time. A cloudy night for many though with further outbreaks of sleet or snow and a slight frost along with locally mist and fog patches too, esp over high ground. A slight-moderate frost in the Highlands; icy patches and some freezing mist patches & low cloud about in Scotland. The frost may be severe locally in some prone glens in the Highlands. By evening the rain band lying across central southern parts of England, central Wales and NW England and it may well turn increasingly to sleet & snow here for a time. There may be some accumulations, esp over high ground with drifting in strong SE’ly winds. Wintry outbreaks still affecting the north & Highland areas of Scotland. However another slight frost developing for inland areas of the northern UK, with icy patches. Temperatures generally staying well below average at 0 to +2C but only -2C in the Highlands, though up to 3-5C in the southwest and S Wales & along the south coast and 7-9C in the far SW.

Wednesday 13th looks to see low pressure to the south and SW with high pressure over Scandinavia with a moderate SE'ly flow across the UK. A weakening band of rain sleet and snow continuing still overnight and by day across western & some central areas, still heavy at times with more snow accumulating in places and drifting too, mainly over hills. The far south and SW staying rather drier after early rain or sleet clears away. Some  sunshine after an early slight-moderate frost with icy patches about in the far north and another moderate-severe frost soon setting in after dusk inland here.  Temperatures feeling cold at -1C to 2C generally though maybe up to 4- 7C for a time in the far west & NW coasts and through the SW, with 9C in Cornwall. 


Thursday 14th looks likely to see another low develop to the SW in Biscay but moving ESE so only allowing its fronts to nudge into the SW and far south again. A strengthening ESE’ly flow for most further north, abating later. A slight-moderate frost at first away from coasts with icy patches and freezing mist or fog patches about in N and Highland Scotland but cloudier with sleety outbreaks further south down through into northern England, snow over hills, some further accumulations here. Cloudy and murky with light or moderate rain at times in the far south west, maybe some sleet & snow over hills in S Wales and central southern England. Another cold raw day for most, max temperatures about -1C to 2C but maybe 3-5C in the far west, near southern coasts and up to 7-9C again in the SW.     

Friday 15th seems on the whole to see little change as low pressure lies to the south or SE and high pressure over to the NE. A lot of low cloud about for most especially over high ground with outbreaks of mainly light rain & sleet with hill snow. The slightly milder weather will struggle to work very far NE but as the flow comes off the warmer North Sea the east will be milder with drizzle at times too. A few sleet or snow outbreaks still over higher ground though, such as the North York Moors but drying up from the east later as colder air moves west.  More low cloud and fog patches will likely return to many inland central and western areas across the UK by the evening.  Temperatures generally a rather cold 0-3C by day for most though up to 4-5C around the eastern and SE coastal counties with 6-9C in the far west and SW but only up to -2C over the Highlands.   

Saturday 16th and Sunday 17th seems likely to see a colder ESE ‘ly flow develop again for most parts with high pressure still up to the northeast and low pressure to the west or SW.  Some night frost in places away from east coasts, generally only as low as -2C but the Highlands may see as low as -7C. Near eastern coasts and in the SE a lot of cloud and some showery outbreaks likely through Saturday and into Sunday, with the risk of sleet on high ground still. In the west and central parts brighter with weak sunny periods but always the risk of some rain I the extreme west and SW. Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be fairly cold for most areas at 1C to 3C, possibly only -2C in the Highlands but more like 5-8C in the SW and locally 10C in Cornwall.   

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

 *Some freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend more esp in the north 
*Risk of moderate or heavy snow in places, esp in central & northern areas but the SE, south of England & Midlands is at risk at times too, probably more esp over hills until midweek.   
*Risk of drifting snow in strong E-SE winds at times, more esp where large accumulations still lie.
*Some moderate frosts overnight in the north, locally severe in the Highlands glens still with icy patches at times esp where there's a lot of surface snow and frozen water
*Avalanche risk in places in mountains if milder air moves in
*Icy lakes & ponds may melt or re-freeze and be hazardous

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high becoming moderate-poor by Thursday
-----
Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team
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