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Convective Outlook - Ireland & UK- Sat Nov 7th

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook - Ireland & UK- Sat Nov 7th  (Read 136 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: November 07, 2009, 12:56:58 am »



Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-11-06 23:22:00
Valid: 2009-11-06 23:00:00 - 2009-11-07 22:59:00

Regions Affected
United Kingdom ( excluding eastern Scotland and eastern England, which are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

A complex area of LOW pressure situated over the United Kingdom will dominate the weather during Saturday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a result of troughs and convergence zones embedded within the anticlockwise flow around the LOW centres.

Showers, and storms, will be primarily concentrated over western and southern coastal counties, though strong winds are likely to aid the showers to move into inland areas of central and southern England. Lighter winds in the centre of the LOW's over northern England and eastern Scotland should limit the number of showers reaching the eastern sides of these regions.

Conditions may be favourable over Ireland and Southwest England for the development of a funnel or weak tornado. The differences between SST's and land surface temperatures at this time of the year will likely aid electrical activity over windward coasts. Hail seems likely in many showers, accompanied by gusty winds.

Showers should retreat to western coastlines overnight, with the exception of southern portions of the UK. An occluded front and associated troughs will move across these areas during the evening and night hours, increasing the risk of electrical activity here, especially near the coasts where the temperature differences will be greatest.
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2009, 05:26:45 pm »

nothing much here today just very chilly indeed had some very heavy rain around 3 pm
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2009, 08:10:18 pm »

All the action seems to be down south, nothing up here today, but I wasn't expecting anything anyway, no instability worth talking about. There may be a few days of convection/storms next week for places according to GFS.
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