Slight Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers Eire & UK 00Z-18Z
A unstable regime lies in the wake of the overnight cold front with post frontal surface troughs initiating further showers primarily west Eire & UK coastal regions. Deep long wave upper trough increases lapse rates through Thurs though alas, within a rather weakly sheared environment as the strong jet stream sinks rapidly south. Prime risk based on low freezing level looks to be small hail.
Whilst the models do not currently show any precip values to the south. A combination of strong upper PVA and potential instability could well develop the odd rogue shower here. If this occurs then the showers in this region could tap into the stronger shear...from Tony Gilbert.
