Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-07-22 19:56:00
Valid: 2009-07-23 00:00:00 - 2009-07-23 23:59:00
Regions Affected
Scotland, Northern England, Midlands, Wales, Southwest England, Northern Ireland, Ireland ( all of the UK is under a WATCH )
Synopsis
An elongated area of LOW pressure situated to the north of/over Northern Scotland will be the dominant feature across the UK on Thursday. Various troughs, fronts and convergence zones within the anticyclonic flow of the LOW pressure will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. It is thought that some of the showers will turn increasingly electrical during the afternoon and evening hours, with the most favourable conditions over the southern half of Ireland. Due to the nature of the Polar Maritime airmass, hail can be expected in quite a few showers, with a slight risk of a convergence-type tornado. Slow moving torrential downpours may be responsible for local flash flooding, particularly in those areas under convergence zones with numerous showers persisting one-after-another. A surface LOW is expected to develop over Benelux during the afternoon hours, which, combined with the humid airmass, is likely to develop scattered thunderstorms there which may cluster in the evening hours. Models are still in disagreement to the exact positioning of such storms, and there exists a low risk (less than 25%) of storms possibly affecting the far Southeast. This will need to be monitored during Thursday.