Convective Outlook - Ireland & UK - Tues July 14th

[martinastro]

From Tony Gilbert



Moderate Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers, Eire, Scotland, Wales and all central and southern regions UK 09Z-21Z

Slight Risk of Weak Tornado Development Southern Ireland 12Z-18Z red box

Slight Risk of localised Stronger Convection SE UK 09Z-15Z

Filling low to the west of Ireland moves east through Tues initiating further showers for the said regions. Some of which could become thundery. Long wave upper trough remains aloft increasing overall lapse rate potential as surface heating gets going through Tues. Upper jet stream remains across southern UK and will likely increase the risk of stronger convection where shear overlays instability. Potential instability once again plays a part within the southern most sector of forecast CAPE. Winds once again look fairly straight lined but with reasonable speed shear. Negative factor is a pronounced divergence of the surface vector decreasing the chance of moisture convergence across most of the southern UK portion of the outlook.

Some good convergence over southern Ireland with mid level dry air should see a few funnel reports come to light.

[Padraig OBrien]

Looking very interesting tomorow im still hoping to see a funnel cloud nearly had one today just very strong updraft 13.5mm recorded here today

[martinastro]

ESTOFEX have a level 1 out for a large portion of Ireland and Southern N. Ireland with much of the rest of the UK in a t-storm box.

http://www.estofex.org/

[martinastro]

Just had a slow moving storm pass over here, only the three rumbles of thunder from it but they were good quality and loud.

[brianb]

There's an evil looking storm to the south east of my location:

2009 July 14, 15:15 BST

[martinastro]

That's an excellent image Brian, looks very nasty above the houses.

[martinastro]

Check this out...



Caught today over the coast of Co. Mayo, Ireland.

[brianb]

Glad I missed that one!

Got a heavy shower here approx. 1640 BST with lighning about - didn't see any but I could smell charge in the air, & there were a few loud thunderclaps including a rolling one which lasted a good 10 seconds. This image shows the bottom of the cloud associated with it, is this (broken) shelf or wall?

2009 July 14, 1645 BST

[martinastro]

Nice image Brian, not sure on that one, is that the rear, front, or side of the storm/cell in the image?

Just in from a long evening of convective watching from Maghera. Some impressive dark storm clouds around with showers and gust fronts with no lightning activity which was strange. However the highlight was late in the evening, and this is something which Declan might confirm, there was a long slow moving line of absolutely stunning cells/cbs/exploding updraught towers spanning from SE to N which remained visible for a very long time growing to a serious height all cast in brilliant white which was a stunning sight. From this line I spotted a very brief rope funnel, white in colour, and well above ground which was the most slender funnel I have ever seen, it vanished quickly before I could record it, nothing to get excited about though. What I did get excited about was two very large cells in that line to my E, miles away, which merged together with heavy precip cores from both. Between the two cores was a large dark lowering which looked like an inverted bowl which went extremely close to the ground, it then became slender, bent in shape, then vanished after at least 15 min's, it was very far away and could have been a distant shelf but it looked more like a large funnel/possible tornado. I would love to hear about any other reports from N. Ireland of any unusual lowerings/funnels around 20.00 BST (and after) this evening to the NE of central areas. This one has made me very curious!

[Padraig OBrien]

A very interesting day here too  had a very strong storm around 3 o clock with severe updraft a  lot of scud swirling underneath a vicsous looking gust/shelf front  started of with rain but then hail which was very impressive in deed one of the biggest this year

[brianb]

I think it was the front edge .... but it was a very strange shower, never rained seriously hard but didn't stop for about 5 hours. Possibly a trough mixed in with an occluded front?

[martinastro]

Thanks for the info Brian, that could very well be what you said, the effects of the trough pushing through, looks like an outflow feature.