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Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th  (Read 9118 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« on: June 29, 2009, 01:25:27 am »

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-28 23:05:00
Valid: 2009-06-29 00:00:00 - 2009-06-29 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Wales, West Country, S,W+N Midlands, Northwest England, Central Southern Scotland ( parts of Central Southern England, Southwest England and much of Scotland are included in the WATCH )

High pressure over Scandinavia continues to affect the weather across the UK. Weak capping is likely to be in place initially, and so initiation of thunderstorms may take until mid/late afternoon in some parts. Mountainous areas are likely to benefit the most with both lifting mechanisms and local convergence zones present. Surface heating will be required significantly in non-mountainous areas for storm initiation. As a result, it seems any storms will be isolated but very slow moving, with the potential for flash flooding from prolonged torrential rain. Any storms that do develop during the day should move in a N/NW direction. Areas currently with the most favoured conditions are thought to be N/NE Wales and into NW England. Most storms will decay during the evening fairly quickly, but may persist a little longer across Northwest England. There is a risk of a thunderstorm across the Northwest Highlands, but the risk at the moment seems too limited for the THUNDERSTORM region to be extended here. There is also a small risk of elevated thunderstorms moving up from northwest France/Brittany area into SW/CS England late in the period, but similarly the risk is currently too low to be included on the map. We will monitor the conditions during Monday and may issue an update if necessary.
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