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Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th  (Read 5737 times)
Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2009, 10:36:32 pm »

I tought i heard a rumble of thunder during the band of rain that moved over ireland last night which was hefty enough here but the sound was drained by the ACDC Coldplay concert near me but i confirmed with me friend that he saw a flash of lightning
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« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2009, 11:44:42 pm »

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i think a late night may be in order to see if anything happens!
Far too warm to sleep. Or do anything else for that matter. Back to normal service PLEASE this heat is UNBEARABLE.
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Big Dipper
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2009, 12:35:02 am »

Far too warm to sleep. Or do anything else for that matter. Back to normal service PLEASE this heat is UNBEARABLE.

Glad you posted that Brian - I was beginning to think it was just me! Just been out looking at the sky quality. Temperature far more pleasant nowbut the sky is too bright for me to bother setting up for imaging.
'Tis my cat I feel really sorry for................he's a long-haired moggy & to top it all, his coat is mostly black!
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Andy
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« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2009, 01:07:01 am »

Yes, warm, humid and very uncomfortable...not much sleep tonight.

Latest GFS is out at 00.00. Britain is still on go for storms however the Ireland/N. Ireland CAPE and LI has been downgraded big time. There will still be a chance for storms but the CAPE is nothing like it was progged earlier...grrr. However, it has upgraded Sat and Sun as the best days with just under 1000 CAPE on Sun with LI of -3 so this thundery period will extend for longer than expected. With the way the models are chopping and changing so much with each run anything is possible this week and weekend...let's wait and see.

In the meantime there have been some sferics over the W coast of Ireland tonight and Britain also. Something could explode over the S of the UK tonight with cells/storms crossing the channel.
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martinastro
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« Reply #19 on: June 30, 2009, 09:47:39 am »



Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 30 Jun 2009 06:00 to Wed 01 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 30 Jun 2009 05:07
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for the United Kingdom for excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Europe is largely free of synoptic scale low and significant high pressure systems, but the airmass is unstable over a large area. A weak upper ridge stretches from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia, while 700 to 300 hPa heights are lower over the Balkan. A frontal system belonging to an Atlantic low will drag over Ireland and Great Britain.
Due to weak wind profiles, shear is less than 10 m/s virtually anywhere, and storms will tend to move very slowly, contributing to pulse type storms with local flash floods, to possibly more excessive convective rain events near persistent convergence zones. Isolated landspouts are also not ruled out.

...UK and Ireland...

A nearly saturated airmass with large precipitable water content is advected from the south and CAPE is predicted to develop, mostly over Wales and N England. Storm motion will be relatively slow and oriented along the source of lift. Regenerating convection may therefore keep training along a line for extended periods, leading to flash floods, while large scale models may underestimate precipitation. In Ireland the same moist airmass passes but with almost no instability (elevated), may need to be upgraded later on. The moisture load, weak lapse rates and deep warm cloud depth may reduce electrification.
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« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2009, 10:28:02 am »

Makes for an interesting forecast for today!  Grey and drizzly here atm, the sun hasn't come out long enough to generate any real heat.  We have a 'new staff barbeque' after work at 3.30 this afternoon, so I reckon the cloud / rain Gods will probably look unfavourably on us for then  Tongue

They have 'planned' for it though and have a gazebo to put it under, though somehow I suspect it may be rather small scale for the size of deluge we're expecting...  Wink
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martinastro
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« Reply #21 on: June 30, 2009, 12:18:27 pm »

Hi Mark, I hope it works out for you and that you get a good day, anything which does develop will likely be localized which usually is the case with these events. At this moment in time there are storms entering the S coast of Britain from the channel and moving N. Showers are breaking out further N too. Once the greatest heating period of day the occurrs then that's the main t-storm potential. Good luck...if you want a storm, or just a good day  Smiley
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« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2009, 12:33:47 pm »

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They have 'planned' for it though and have a gazebo to put it under, though somehow I suspect it may be rather small scale for the size of deluge we're expecting...
Lightning conductors? If not, better to lie face down in the mud....
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« Reply #23 on: June 30, 2009, 01:58:16 pm »

Very intense rainfall over S. Ireland at the min moving NE, showing up red on the radar, no sferics though.

Latest update shows that the thunderstorm potential will last into late next week so the thread title will need to be changed at some point.
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markt
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« Reply #24 on: June 30, 2009, 05:11:48 pm »

Nothing has really developed where I am today - very muggy, grey and with the occassional spot or 3 of rain.  Oh well  Roll Eyes
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« Reply #25 on: June 30, 2009, 07:16:24 pm »

The main storms today have formed over S. Britain, N. Britain , Scotland, with the most intense storms over Wales..there will plenty of more chances to come  Smiley
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« Reply #26 on: June 30, 2009, 08:30:34 pm »

The main storms today have formed over S. Britain, N. Britain , Scotland, with the most intense storms over Wales..there will plenty of more chances to come  Smiley

It's ironic you know - the 'weather head' in me looks forward to exciting (read active) weather - however the astronomer in me yearns for clear skies (and hence realtively boring weather) - can't win em' all I guess  Tongue
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« Reply #27 on: June 30, 2009, 08:37:00 pm »

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the 'weather head' in me looks forward to exciting (read active) weather
The "weather head" in me hurts when there's thunder about. It's hurting now.

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can't win em' all I guess
Don't see why not - it can do whatever it likes when the altitude of the Sun is in the range +6 to -9 degrees (approx) - just so long as it's cloudless in between times. And preferably around 0C, with a wind about force 3 is ideal.
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« Reply #28 on: June 30, 2009, 08:49:07 pm »

Don't see why not - it can do whatever it likes when the altitude of the Sun is in the range +6 to -9 degrees (approx) - just so long as it's cloudless in between times. And preferably around 0C, with a wind about force 3 is ideal.


Lol, when you look at it like that I guess you're right.   Grin
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« Reply #29 on: June 30, 2009, 10:39:35 pm »

Great, thanks for that, Martin.

Our regional weather presenter tells us this evening that Thursday is going to be the day for heavy and frequent TS's. We'll see.
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