Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th

[Padraig OBrien]

Nice shots Martin reminds me of thursday evening when i could see flashes to the south the sky was very like yours not much action here since this morning

[martinastro]

Cheers Padraig, there are storms moving up into NI now.

[markt]

Squall line is just passing over here now.  Very black skies and very strong downdraughts...  No T&L tho...

[martinastro]

Lots of t-storms over W NI, moving NE. The area around W and S Lough Neagh watch out soon.

[scott86]

send some over to belfast martin! lol

[martinastro]

Huge cells reported from NI at the moment and active storms!. I forgot to mention...

No storms here but they might approach me soon. I have been out for a good while, great towering cu around, very hight and solid. Take this with a BIG pinch of salt, I noticed miles away to my SW a very large lowering shaped like a dark inverted bowl with on my horizon to the S side of the Sperrin Mountains, I watched it move dynamically for 10 min's until I lost it from view. It was just too far away for a decent image but it looked alot like a large wedge type tornado, it could have been low scud from a shelf but I didn't look like it to me, again just too far away, I would be interested to see if any other reports come in, I don't know for sure where it was located but from my view point looking at the SW horizon, it would have been between the W side of Slieve Gallion and the S side of the Sperrins...VERY far away. It looked very

[martinastro]

Well, I went out after a tip off from Greg on te UKWW who mentioned the cell approaching here from 50 miles away, I looked above my house and was amazed to see the anvil directly overhead, it was HUGE!! with some mamma on it. This was blown many miles downwind from the storm itself. It took a long time to see the storm but when it arrived it was nasty!, deadly blue c-gs...very dangerous hitting outside the precip area, my nerves were on a knife edge, the thunder was like a gun shot then later like continuous rumbling. The rain from it was incredible, even frightening looking as it approached falling from the gust front over Slieve Gallion. Behind it was a double rainbow with thunder booming...fantastic. Now, there's another storm approaching....

[martinastro]

Anyone who lives in central or W N. Ireland might want to go chasing, there's a line of storms moving up from SW to NE and Tony Gilbert believes these are severe cells. The one which hit Maghera was photographed from 50 miles away with an overshooting top.

[brianb]

A few flashes of ligntning & rumbles of thunder here this evening, and a prolonged but light shower of rain, less than 1mm in total.

[martinastro]

Just to follow up, 2nd storm passed through with stunning flanking line which produced a distant brief white rope funnel which didn't last long at all. However the convection was definitely severe looking!. Rock solid 'monster' cbs with mammatus and overshooting tops above Sperrin mountains all evening, I was in pursuit of these but they were too distant. I suspect another funnel or even a tornado report may yet come in if there are others with their eyes on the sky today. Quite a stunning evening!

[Padraig OBrien]

Lokks like to be a very heavy shower to me south very like yesterday evening

[martinastro]

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-07-04 21:33:00
Valid: 2009-07-05 00:00:00 - 2009-07-05 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland, Ireland, Scotland (excluding the far east), NW England, Wales and SW England ( all of the UK is included in the WATCH )

Synopsis
Similar to Saturday, an area of LOW pressure centred just to the west of Ireland in the Atlantic will be the main dominating feature of the weather across the United Kingdom on Sunday. Numerous showers will be present even at daybreak across quite a few areas thanks to embedded troughs and fronts within the anticyclonic flow around the area of LOW pressure. Further showers and thunderstorms are expected to become very widespread across Ireland and Northern Ireland for much of the day, and increasingly so across Wales and Southwest England later in the afternoon and throughout the evening, due to an approaching occlusion. The showers will move in a northeastward motion across the UK - yet again a broad area has been highlighted, but not all of the showers will be electrified. Moderate winds will ensure the showers/storms should move through fairly quickly, so the flash flooding risk is somewhat limited to areas most prone to frequent showers (western parts of both islands in particular). Ireland/Northern Ireland, and later Wales/SW England appear to have the most favourable environment for thunderstorm development. Showers will decrease in coverage across eastern areas rapidly during the evening hours, but will persist across many western areas throughout the night, and so will the associated risk of thunder and lightning.

[Padraig OBrien]

Thanks for that Martin im hoping to get more significant stuff today just very heavy shower here at the moment lots of heavy showers in south leinster pushing northwards

[brianb]

Very odd here, there are signs of instability at upper and lower levels but maybe an inversion at mid level, though the fair weather cumulus have a lumpy top with no obvious signs of butting into a very stable air layer.

[martinastro]

There very well could be some kind of cap Brian which is one of today's restrictions. Strong solar heating or another form of lift will be needed to break through it. CAPE values over Ireland and N. Ireland this afternoon are between 1000 and 1200 with a lifted index of -3 and -4 so it's an extremely unstable enviornment out there today, as long as the cap can be broken through later. Tony Gilbert mentioned that the upper atmosphere is saturated which could inhibit growth. Worth keeping an eye on the sky today for funnels/waterspouts/tornadoes.