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Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th  (Read 5740 times)
scott86
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« Reply #60 on: July 02, 2009, 05:05:12 pm »

its just been a few spits and spots in belfast all day, extremely humid, which doesnt go well with the warmth, it was like walking into a wall of water when i walked outside, i feel sorry for the folks down in england, there was a picture on the bbc site of a guy who made his own cold room in his bathroom!
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R Newman
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« Reply #61 on: July 02, 2009, 06:58:53 pm »

There was severe Thunder storm to the west of me an hour ago in Ballina, but just like a week ago it missed me by several miles, the actual cell itself must be at least 40 miles wide see http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp. Was very dark in that direction. wanted to drive into it but Babysitting so could not move Cry Cry

I really enjoy this site well done to Martin and his regular updates

Ronan Newman
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #62 on: July 02, 2009, 07:11:54 pm »

Thanks very much for the feedback Roman and the report. There sure looked to be some big cells/storms in parts of Ireland today, all I want now is a few in the north so we can get some of the action.
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #63 on: July 02, 2009, 10:54:37 pm »

Things a are starting to look very thundery down here id say somethings brewing to my south and pushing this way
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« Reply #64 on: July 03, 2009, 12:02:12 am »

Thanks Martin, Its Ronan, I know there is a Roman here on the boards, took two images two weeks ago  while driving home of a Cb and a possible Funnel cloud as I noticed a Wall Cloud lowering (more cows martin Wink)


http://www.flickr.com/photos/galwayastronomyclub/3682285917/sizes/l/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/galwayastronomyclub/3682285923/sizes/l/in/photostream/

Ronan Newman
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #65 on: July 03, 2009, 12:09:19 am »

Lightning displays to my south now but no thunder
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martinastro
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« Reply #66 on: July 03, 2009, 12:40:39 am »

There are storms in Ireland tonight again  Smiley

Friday's outlook....



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OFSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis
An upper ridge lies N across central Europe and the North Sea, upper low to the west of Ireland finally starts to shift eastwards towards UK. 22z analysis shows cold front lying St Malo-Swansea-Belfast, with thundery troughs across Normandy/E English Channel, W Ireland and N Scotland. By 12z Friday, cold front moving NE expected to lie Great Yarmouth-Edinburgh-Isle of Skye, by 24z Atlantic low and fronts approaches Ireland, while cold front clears NE from N Scotland with SW flow across UK.

... CENTRAL-S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, SE ENGLAND, E ANGLIA, N ENGLAND, IRELAND & SCOTLAND...

Trough over Nern Scotland will bring further heavy downpours with isol. sferics over next few hours before fading. Some uncertianties to how quickly the cold front will clear through the UK during Friday after coming to a virtual standstill over SW UK during Thursday and not much movement this evening. However, approaching upper trough moving in from the SW will finally push the cold front NE towards the east coast by the afternoon, introducing less humid but still warm air in its wake. Tonight, thundery rain with isolated embedded t-storms will slowly edge east across SW England, Wales and eventually W Scotland and NW England. Post frontal airmass is also unstable across Ireland with further t-storms possible here overnight.

Further east, attention is drawn to thundery trough/vortex drifitng north out of Nern France which has developed MCS areas in response to slightly increased speed of upper winds on approach of upper trough to the SW and meso sfc low crossing the east English Channel ... one MCS area will likely push across Sussex/Kent and inland across the London area towards E Anglia, the other area clipping E Kent though it may merge. Storms within theses MCSs will be capable of producing torrential downpours capable of flash flooding, frequent cloud to ground lightning, hail to marble size and isolated wind gusts to 40-50kts. Therefore issue a SLIGHT risk of severe weather mainly for Friday AM as these storm areas move NE across SE England and E Anglia.

Further NW and W, forcing along cold front has weakened somewhat this evening, however, isolated t-storms may redevelop along the cold front as upper trough arriving from SW sharpens as it moves slowly NE across central England, N England and Scotland during the morning. These storms will mainly pose a threat with heavy downpours and cloud-ground lightning. This heavy thundery rain with isol t-storms will tend to become confined to Scotland and the east coast north of the Wash as the cold front continues NE, clearer less humid but still warm condtions will push in across much of the rest of the UK in the afternoon/evening. However, in post frontal airmass across Ireland, GFS develops several 100 j/kg of SBCAPE over the N and W as shortwave troughs in cyclonic SW flow help to create instability with sfc heating. So some thunderstorms are possible here in the afternoon and evening.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

ESTOFEX going for a larger risk area...

http://www.estofex.org/
« Last Edit: July 03, 2009, 12:43:52 am by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #67 on: July 03, 2009, 12:46:15 am »

Hey Ronan, sorry about the name mix up  Smiley. Thanks for sharing those two images which are great. That's a lovely looking cell, definitely looks like some kind of wall cloud or inflow feature in the first image, that storm is close to the ground too, the Cows really add to the scene. Love the images  Smiley
« Last Edit: July 03, 2009, 12:47:54 am by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #68 on: July 03, 2009, 12:57:27 am »

Here's the current sferic (lightning) activity tonight....



Active night t-storms in Ireland, Scotland, and a monster MSC moving across the channel towards the S and SE coasts of Britain..highly electrified!. Someone is going to have a wild night.
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Big Dipper
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« Reply #69 on: July 03, 2009, 01:11:38 am »

Martin, just to second what Ronan said earlier on about keeping us updated. The only criticism that I have is that none of your storms have come my way as out yet  Grin - though that lot crossing the channel at the moment gives me some hope.

Anyway, thanks again for the time and effort that you've put in to this thread. The icing on the cake would be if I had something exciting to report, weatherwise like many others here.
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Remember:- If all else fails, read the Instruction Manual! Grin
 


Andy
martinastro
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« Reply #70 on: July 03, 2009, 03:34:01 am »

Thanks very much Andy, I'm glad the convective outlooks are proving useful. I'm in the same boat as yourself, eveything seems to be missing here lately, maybe Fri afternoon will produce something. Fingers crossed.

Observed distant white flashes of lightning here between 02.30-03.00 BST.
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martinastro
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« Reply #71 on: July 03, 2009, 10:27:19 am »

Updated forecast from Tony Gilbert



Moderate Risk Thundery Showers 09Z-18Z Ireland & East Anglia UK

Thunderstorms continue effect SE UK through the morning and into early afternoon. These are primarily elevated and it is uncertain if these will become surface based given cloud cover reducing heating.

Ireland looks in line a stormy day. Conditions are enhanced by marginal vertical shear and mid level dry air moving north. Deep upper troughing from the west will sustain better lapse rates at all levels
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #72 on: July 03, 2009, 10:31:03 am »

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2009/022

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php (risk map)

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 08:35GMT on Friday 3rd July 2009
Valid from/until: 08:35-21:00GMT on Friday 3rd July 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Scotland

N England

Midlands & E Anglia

Eire

N Ireland

THREATS

Isolated funnels/tornadoes, marginally severe hail, CG lightning, torrential rainfall, gusty winds.

SYNOPSIS

High theta-e/w plume is slowly progressing NE across Great Britain. This will bring the chance of both embedded mid-level thunderstorm activity, and the chance of surface-based storm development through the remainder of today, from E Anglia NW'wards through much of N England into Scotland. Shear is marginally sufficent in these areas for loosely organised clusters, posing a slight wind/hail threat, along with heavy rain/CG lightning.

Across N Ireland, surface front is moving NE with some convective activity - a stronger storm is possible along this line before it moves into W Scotland.

Across Eire, vort max is moving into the SW ATTM and will move NNE through today. Surface based instability is expected to develop around and just ahead of it. Shear profiles are supportive of weak rotation, which could enhance a wind/hail threat. In addition, low-level shear profiles suggest a slight risk of a tornado.

Forecaster: RPK.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2009, 10:32:35 am by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

scott86
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« Reply #73 on: July 03, 2009, 10:52:31 am »

looking very promising indeed!!
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martinastro
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« Reply #74 on: July 03, 2009, 03:49:36 pm »

Storm in central Ireland moving NE, may arrive to the SE of Lough Neagh later.
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