Moderate Risk of General Thundery Showers 09Z-21Z Central, SE and eastern regions of UK
Probably the last decent run of thunderstorms for a few days.
Occluded front looks to trigger further convective showers through Tues as CAPE values rise once again within a moist unstable climate. Upper cold pool moves slowly east but continues to influence central and eastern regions as surface temps rise. Vertical shear rather limited at all levels and upper levels are saturated up to the trop decreasing risk of any severe weather event. In addition to this we can expect some rather heavy cloud cover reducing insolation in many areas. Prime threat looks to be further localised flooding with slow moving storms.
UPDATE
As per earlier forecast. Whilst risk of Tstorms remains fairly moderate, the level of organisation within these storms looks rather poor. As mentioned by Paul, the whole set up looks to deflate by early evening as surface temps drop within the broad parameter of the outflow. A stray cell may venture toward the southern region of E.Anglia which could utilise some convergence and wind veer but not much else ATM.
Current CAPE overload looks based primarily on moisture advection. Though with expected cloud cover I'm not sure whether GFS predicted surface temps will be realised. Hense the predicted CAPE level is unlikely to be realised (opinion). This could well become evident on the next model output as the indices is adjusted likewise.
