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Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th  (Read 11680 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #45 on: July 02, 2009, 01:56:05 pm »

Not a thing here Scott, just light rain, maybe something will kick off from those showers behind the cold front....



TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2009/020

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 11:15GMT on Thursday 2nd July 2009

Valid from/until: 11:15-21:00GMT on Thursday 2nd July 2009 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

SW England

Midlands

NW England

Scotland

Wales

Eire

N Ireland

THREATS

Marginally severe hail; isolated tornadoes; gusty winds; heavy rain; CG lightning.

DISCUSSION

Three potential areas of convective development seem possible today: West of the cold front, across Eire and western parts of N Ireland; along the cold front, through SW England, Wales, and western Scotland; in the moist plume ahead of the cold front, from the Midlands through parts of NW England into central Scotland.

West of the cold front, several hundred J/Kg of CAPE are forecast to develop across western Eire/W N Ireland, with reasonable shear. Loosely organised clusters may develop with a marginal severe hail/wind threat.

Along the cold front axis, elevated and perhaps embedded surface based showers/storms are possible, although the overall coverage of thunderstorms may be fairly low. Any storm which develops will do so in an environment favourable for gusty winds/marginal hail, as well as producing heavy rainfall.

Ahead of the cold front, there are indications that isolated storms may form across parts of the Midlands and then move NNW into NW England. Shear may be sufficient for a small loosely organised cluster capable of producing marginally severe hail, along with frequent CG lightning.

In the same airmass across Scotland, there is likely to be somewhat stronger shear, perhaps enough for weak mesocyclone development. This would enhance the wind/hail threat, and given an increasing low-level flow, a tornado is possible too.

Lack of stronger shear precludes a WATCH

Overnight tonight, there is a risk of thunderstorms spreading into southern counties of England, along with increasing deep-layer flow. These could bring the risk of marginally severe hail and winds.

Forecaster: RPK.
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