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Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th  (Read 6640 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« Reply #30 on: July 01, 2009, 08:16:00 pm »

The following is a Convective Watch issued by the Irish Weather Network on 01 July 2009 at 19.00 Hrs. The risk remains valid at present until at least 12 Hrs on Thursday 02 July 2009.

Convective Watch - Issued at 19.00

For the coming 24 Hours, a southerly flow containing extremely humid air will cover Ireland. Dewpoints will be very high within this flow & conditions will remain humid to exceptionally humid. Later tonight and into tomorrow, there is at least a 40%-50% risk of thundery rainfall spreading into southern and southeastern districts. Such thundery rainfall, along with the possibility of embedded thunderstorms will then transfer due north over the course of the morning, affecting many eastern areas whilst continuing to transfer northwards. There is the potential for localised flooding in some areas along with the prospect of a difficult morning commute. Later into the afternoon, whilst conditions should gradually begin to clear across eastern districts, there is a threat of heavier showers or thunderstorms further north and west.

The first developments in terms of thundery rainfall are expected to arrive in southern and southeastern areas at approximately 03 Hrs on Thursday morning. Thundery rainfall is quite likely to develop, transferring northwards on a gradual basis. There is also a risk of embedded thunderstorms, leading to localised downpours and potentially localised or spot flooding in some areas, especially further south and east at first.

Predicated Rainfall At 6 Hrs - Thursday

The morning commute may well be particularly difficult across many eastern areas tomorrow morning, with thundery rainfall & isolated thunderstorms, making for very difficult driving conditions. Localised accumulations of in excess of 20mm of rainfall are quite possible during this period, most especially across southeastern, eastern and northeastern districts.

Present indications suggest the risk to be most significant towards 12 Hours, before diminishing later into the afternoon in eastern areas.

Predicted Rainfall At 9 Hrs - Thursday

However, it should also be noted that there is a risk of thunderstorms breaking out further northwest into the late afternoon in the very humid conditions.


In summary, thundery rainfall will spread from the variable south overnight, arriving in southern and southeastern districts during the early morning before spreading further northwards to affect many eastern districts towards 09 Hrs. Embedded thunderstorms are possible along with the potential for localised flooding and significant surface water accumulation. Driving conditions may become very dangerous in eastern and southeastern areas during the morning commute. The risk also transfers to northeastern areas by 10Z, with the potential for thunderstorms further north and west later into the afternoon. A further update will be issued when more guidance becomes available.
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