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Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th  (Read 5748 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: June 29, 2009, 10:08:55 pm »

Outlook for Tues, will update what Tony Gilbert says when he gets a forecast sorted.



Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-29 20:44:00
Valid: 2009-06-30 00:00:00 - 2009-06-30 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern England, Wales, N,W+S Midlands, West Country, parts of Southwest England ( much of mainland Scotland, Northern Ireland and remaining areas of Midlands and CS / SW England are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis
High pressure over Scandinavia continues to affect the weather across the UK. A plume of warm and moist air advects northwards out of NW France on Monday evening/night, and is likely to bring scattered showers or elevated thunderstorms to some southwestern/central-southern counties during the early hours of Tuesday morning, moving north into East Wales/W Midlands by dawn. Although these showers may weaken and decay during the morning hours, further thunderstorms are expected to develop within the THUNDERSTORM region on the map. Initiation should be sooner than on Monday due to a more favourable atmosphere and so from early/mid afternoon seems more likely. Slow moving storms are likely to pose a flash flooding risk, and also hail. Most storms should move in a N/NW direction. Some thunderstorms may persist for most of the evening, particularly in northern England, with a low risk of further elevated storms moving across the Channel in the late evening hours.
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