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Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Risk UK & IRL June 29th-July 7th  (Read 5737 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: June 29, 2009, 01:10:41 pm »

Hey guys, here's the latest forecast from Tony Gilbert...



Slight Risk of isolated Thundery Showers Wales, Midlands, NW UK and Scotland. 15Z-21Z

Marginal risk of Brief Tornado NW Wales (Red Box)

Ridging continues to build from the west, whilst the east side of the convective watch is now showing some better vertical lift derived from the upper trough. Strong capping will exist south of Thames Valley.

Today's convective outlook will be directly associated with the level of surface heating available, delivered under clear skys. Though given the sharp divergence at lower mid level we can expect any convective  initiation to pull aloft quite rapidly. Surface moisture is rather lean until late in the day. Hense a watch issued from 15Z onwards. Though orographic lifting could bring this slightly forward over N.Wales. I am encouraged by the dry air incursion above 600mb. Though with earlier lean moisture we can expect convection to remain rather scattered and isolated early in the period.

I do not really see any significant  convergence as has been mentioned earlier on this thread. Except for a small risk around NW Wales. It is here that we have a marginal risk of a brief tornado derived from low level vertical shear. I would also expect to see some good rotating cloud bases here. All dependent on an onshore breeze developing. This risk is considered brief due to lack of upper shear and the fact that storms are likely to be sustained for any length of time.

IMO and based on the most recent model output we can expect the Midlands to deliver the best sferic activity today.

PS. If I lived in NW Wales I would be taking the day of work in anticipation of a localised threat. Do we have any members in that location?
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