Convective Outlook - UK & Ireland - Fri June 26th

[martinastro]

Outlook for Britain and S. Ireland from ESTOFEX...

http://www.estofex.org/

Active storms already occuring over SE UK at the moment. This is the first of many days of thundery potential over the weekend and into next week. From looking at the CAPE and LI values there will indeed be severe thunderstorms or very electrically active elevated storms for some parts. This is certainly turning out to be a very active Summer. N. Ireland misses out on the higher values however the storm potential is still there on some days especially for S and W areas. Worth watching!

Here's the CAPE and LI for Fri at 18.00.



Roman, is also at risk for strong storms during the same period.

[markt]

Thanks for that Martin, i'm hoping to get some nice thunderstorm activity here in the Midlands later on.  It's dry but overcast here at the moment.  I'll certainly be taking a goretex to work with me though 

[Padraig OBrien]

Looking great Martin i had small activity last night at about 4a.m. i seen two flashes with thunder there was also heavy rain but my eyes were hanging out of my head so i went back to bed and just listened but eventually drifted off!

Im very positive about today

[martinastro]

New extended risk box from Tony Gilbert...

As per earlier forecast with boxes extended as per map below. A messy cluster of showers moving north from the continent has continued to spread upper cloud to most parts across the UK. Unless solar heating can establish itself by early afternoon, any sferic activity could become very limited indeed. Tstorm box is extended into Devon where GFS in particular develops CAPE under a mid level dry air incursion. Convergence zone looks to become widespread but in truth the atmospheric conditions are not ideal for funnel development. Today shows little potential instability, and the mid to upper level environmental  lapse rates remain rather poor.  All in all some fairly wide spread thundery activity likely on the periphery of the surface cold pool outflow and in particular some heavier Tstorms possible Thames Valley region



Storms have been occurring in Ireland and UK for much of last night and again today with some of the night storms on par to the great 2006 t-storms according to several photographers on the UKWW.

[martinastro]

Check out these nice images of lightning over the English Channel caught last night by Paul Hunter...

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=31020&posts=2

[martinastro]

Nice to see things getting upgraded. Here's the latest CAPE and LI for 18.00 this evening.

[brianb]

I don't believe a word of it. Heavy rain will of course be concentrated at Glastonbury; inevitable given the rock festival location & timing Tornados not necessary to destroy tentage.

[martinastro]

What's not to believe? 

[brianb]

The earlier chart with the lined boxes had the main risk centred around Glastonbury.... the updated coloured version has shifted the main risk to the Peterborough area. Glastonbury Festival attracts bad weather; if anything's going to happen, that's where!

[martinastro]

....lol I see what you mean now...I bet you are 100% correct too. Should be interesting to see if the news covers it later. Probably a complete washout. Everytime Wimbledon and Glastonbury begins there's always storms and heavy rain...classic.

[martinastro]

Fantastic mid level instability here with rock solid updraughts exploding up by the sec...very impressive!. Very hot and humid too.

[martinastro]

Someone from the UWW has just reprorted seeing a tornado from Wales, about 1/2 mile distant. He says he's got images. 

[Padraig OBrien]

Very overcast here at the moment and very sticky just had a very brief heavy shower its now pushing away to the west and im starting to here rumbles from it