Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers Tues 23rd June 09 Ireland, Wales, NW UK & SW Scotland 15Z-21Z
Whilst the risk of thundery convection would seem more likely for Tues by comparison to Mondays results, the risk of any severe weather event looks fairly stunted once again.
GFS push for much better moisture and surface temps within the specified regions. These are reflected in the predicted high CAPE values. Though, ultimately there are some uncertainties as to how much influence the high pressure to the NE will effect the days outcome. It is reasonable to expect some rather shallow convection within building convergence zones. Mid level dry air looks to maintain fairly low humidity profile throughout the day increasing potential instability at mid levels. Weak shear at all levels and poor upper lapse rates may limit IMO the level of sferic activity. Convection looks to become rather sporadic and should remain fairly isolated.
