Interesting update from Tony Gilbert...
Moderate Risk of Gen Tstorms & Slight Risk Funnel Obs Ireland & N.Ireland 12Z-21Z
06Z model output pretty much lowers any earlier risk over UK to negligible.
Moist surface flow tends to stay further west than earlier anticipations. Dry surface plume pushes in from east during period all but cuts off any chance of true convection initiating. The earlier mid level dry air incursion is reduced to 100mb layer thickness only, with saturation from 600mb upwards. This will cancel out any potential instability from this level upwards. Given that this whole outlook was based within the warm sector the advance of potential instability was crucial. The end result is almost zero instability at mid levels.
I still feel the need to view the 12Z run regarding the UK to be 100% sure that nothing convective will occur overnight!
Ireland as per earlier forecast and as per convective map below. Though, prime instability will not be utilised till quite late in the day and so too goes for the risk of funnel obs. Whilst surface confluent vector is classic for producing the right vorticity for funnels. I am rather uncertain about the overall lapse rates so have suggested a Slight Risk only.
