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Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th  (Read 2458 times)
scott86
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« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2009, 07:26:38 pm »

at long last, im off work when the forecast is looking promising! Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2009, 07:33:54 pm »

Great to hear it Scott  Smiley

Here's the latest CAPE and LI charts for Sat at 18.00 (1st chart). Note even at midnight there is still instability around, the odd night storm is possible somewhere (2nd chart).





Tornado/spout param also over NI for Sat....

http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/Europe/gfs_spout_eur24.png
« Last Edit: June 12, 2009, 07:40:40 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2009, 07:41:10 pm »

Convective outlook for Sat from Tony Gilbert...



7.20pm Fri

Moderate Risk of General Thundery Showers Ireland 12Z-21Z Sat 13th 09

Models are picking up on the development of strong CAPE over Ireland for Saturday. A succession of surface troughs look to push through from the SW initiating some rather heavy showers to most parts. Sat morning shows some increase in surface temps as cloud cover shifts NE. Scattered Thunderstorms are expected to break out pretty much across the board within a poorly sheared environment. In addition to this weak upper moisture seems rather sluggish to move off. The net result will likely decrease the speed that cooling of cloud tops can occur.


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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2009, 08:46:08 pm »



Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-12 20:16:00
Valid: 2009-06-13 00:00:00 - 2009-06-13 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland, Ireland, southern half of Scotland and the far north of England ( the remainder of Scotland, Wales, northern England and Southwest England are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis
As an occlusion moves north and east across the UK during Saturday, a moist but unstable airmass is left in its wake. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop very quickly during the morning hours across Northern Ireland and Ireland, becoming fairly widespread as the day progresses. Showers and thunderstorms may also move into southwest Scotland during the afternoon, with further showers and possibly thunderstorms developing across other areas in the southern half of Scotland in particular, especially late afternoon and evening. Winds will be light and so the showers will be slow moving, which may cause high rainfall totals due to flash flooding. Hail and gusty winds may accompany several of the showers. Isolated showers may develop across parts northern England, Wales and Southwest England, most likely due to local convergence zones, and there is a slight risk of thundery activity from these, most likely across northern England. Showers may persist for much of the evening across parts of southern Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland, and in some places thundery showers may continue overnight. Nevertheless, there are quite a few factors that need monitoring during Saturday.
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martinastro
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« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2009, 09:34:24 pm »

Entire sky is covered with mammatus here.
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martinastro
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« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2009, 10:22:28 pm »

Torrential showers (red on radar) have just moved into N. Ireland heading NE. These is a chance these may become storms in some areas.
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« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2009, 01:21:25 am »

Torrential showers (red on radar) have just moved into N. Ireland heading NE. These is a chance these may become storms in some areas.

Looks like it was a sharp burst you had looking at the rainfall radar.  Did you manage to get any pickies of those mammatus Martin?

I'm expecting rain tomorrow - i'm off camping with friends in the Forest of Dean, barbeque planned and everything - I bet a char grilled burger the weather gods will look down on me unfavourably!  Tongue
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scott86
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« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2009, 11:28:32 am »

some nice convection firing up over the lisburn area!
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #23 on: June 13, 2009, 11:48:15 am »

Met Office have flash warning out for all of NI for heavy showers with hail and thunder...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

Thanks for the report Scott, I think this is going to be one of those classic thunderstorm days like we used to get. The Sun has been out all morning and it's hot and humid with solid updraughts forming everywhere since after 11.00...I'm getting excited  Smiley

Hi Mark, I didn't get any images of the mammatus because they were not the spectacular type, I was saving my batteries for today. Good luck on your camping trip...it could go either way weather wise in your area, you know how unpredictable the weather is in the UK  Smiley

Storms over Atlantic at min and showers breaking out in SE NI. Get your cameras ready everyone  Smiley
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scott86
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« Reply #24 on: June 13, 2009, 11:52:40 am »

863 j/kg cape and -3 LI----------Very promising indeed!
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martinastro
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« Reply #25 on: June 13, 2009, 12:19:04 pm »

Best all year  Smiley

Incredible motions to the clouds here with large sections of scud getting sucked up into the cloud bases at high speed (inflow), I could imagine a decent funnel dropping somewhere today!
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scott86
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« Reply #26 on: June 13, 2009, 12:22:25 pm »

fingers crossed! its just a steady shower and overcast here at the minute, still very warm and humid though!
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« Reply #27 on: June 13, 2009, 12:40:00 pm »

Just had some short-lived but heavy showers with large drops. Convection is getting impressive with large towering cu over Slieve Gallion and to the W over the Sperrins. These are bound to turn serious later. With that kind of CAPE, combined with any vorticity from hills/mountains, the chance of a brief meso/LT supercell can't be ruled out today.
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« Reply #28 on: June 13, 2009, 12:56:46 pm »

Huge cell close by to my W with rock hard anvil and updraught towers back-building into the rear!
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« Reply #29 on: June 13, 2009, 01:42:50 pm »

1340 BST Thunder at Portballintrae
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