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Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th

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Author Topic: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th  (Read 2458 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: June 09, 2009, 05:55:12 pm »

Hope I got that date correct. There is some chat at the moment about the chance of a Spanish Plume event occurring over Ireland on Sun/Mon June 14/15th time period. That's a very unstable warm and humid airmass moving up from the south and crossing over much of Ireland to the north. If this is indeed the case then there is the chance of getting some very strong elevated thunderstorms over a wide area. It's obviously still too far out yet and lots of things could happen between now and then with the risk of the plume being pushed to the east depending on the low pressure/high pressure war at the moment.

Just for a laugh I checked the netweather charts for Maghera on Mon June 15th and got a shock. At 16.00 the CAPE values are 1041 with the LI at -4. That is incredible!. Energy like that can generate severe thunderstorms and Supercells. I so wish that would happen but it will probably get downgraded before then. In any case, out of interest, I thought I would start a thread in advance just incase it actually does come true. Monday is worth watching!. As you can see from the charts the LI is even at -5 for S and SE parts of N. Ireland, but take it all with a pinch of salt at this stage. I haven't seen CAPE and LI values like that for here in years.



« Last Edit: June 10, 2009, 03:18:02 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

Paul
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2009, 06:05:32 pm »

I shall be flying Gatwick -> Aldergrove right about that sort of time!
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2009, 12:25:08 pm »

Latest model updates are showing Sat, Sun, and Mon as potential convective days with decent CAPE and LI with Monday being the best. Hopefully something interesting will happen....
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2009, 03:07:41 pm »

Today, plenty of thunderstorms over Britain including Republic of Ireland and sferics SE of Lough Neagh towards the E coast of NI.

BBC Newsline with Angie just confirmed the chance of thundery activity over the weekend. I also seen Paul Evans image of the sunrise with pillar on TV today, so congrats to Paul.  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2009, 03:13:22 pm »

TORRO has a forecast out for mainland UK today...

http://www.torro.org.uk/torro/forecast/index.php

Funnel cloud spotted over Anglesey this morning.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2009, 03:17:07 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2009, 03:50:25 pm »

Thunderstorms SE N. Ireland.
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2009, 05:27:04 pm »

Today's lightning activity so far...Britain is getting hammered by organized multicell storms, there's a high chance of a tornado there today.

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martinastro
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« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2009, 05:30:03 pm »

From UKASF....

Wed Jun 10, 2009 5:06 pm

UKASF Alert

Intense, marginally severe storms, across the Midlands, Wales and West Country in particular pose a risk of hail, gusty winds and convergence-type funnel clouds and/or a tornado. Prolonged torrential downpours are also likely, which may lead to flash flooding this evening.
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martinastro
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« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2009, 06:04:08 pm »

Here's images of a rotating thunderstorm and funnel captured from the UK today.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=30691&posts=3#M447826
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martinastro
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« Reply #9 on: June 10, 2009, 06:29:48 pm »

Monday has been completely downgraded, however Sat and Sun are still on for heavy convective showers and thunderstorms, some of which may even last into night time hours for some parts. Here's the latest charts for the late afternoon Sat and Sun...



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martinastro
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« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2009, 11:05:32 pm »

Another funnel caught in the UK today again...

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=30698&posts=1

That's alot of funnels and one tornado from the UK lately!. One was caught from Dublin also and John T from TORRO is currently on the case incase of a touch down. I heard he's getting video footage from CCTV cameras within the various shops and businesses in the area. A true detective he is!
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2009, 05:24:58 pm »

Quote
There is some chat at the moment about the chance of a Spanish Plume event occurring over Ireland on Sun/Mon June 14/15th time period.
Nasty, sounds like a cross between a very bad dose of flu & the Inquistion which no-one expects!
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martinastro
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« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2009, 06:16:36 pm »

lol...yes, that's a good one, a bit like swine flue, it does sound nasty.

It's still low risk really at the min but Mon is back on the cards again along with Sat and Sun. Worst case is rain and cloud (boring!), best case, elevated thunderstorms!. The Atlantic is introducing cooler air which MIGHT kill the instablity but there is that mass of moist air moving up from the S or SW which is worth watching. Should feel warmer and more humid over the weekend in any case.
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martinastro
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« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2009, 06:55:10 pm »



Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-11 18:23:00
Valid: 2009-06-12 00:00:00 - 2009-06-12 23:59:00

Regions Affected
NW & W Ireland ( western parts of Northern Ireland and central & western Ireland are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis
Existing showers and storms across eastern Scotland and eastern England will drift into the North Sea overnight, where there is a low risk of thunder and lightning (hence the WATCH). As the occlusion moves through Ireland and Northern Ireland northeastwards during the morning and early afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the North Atlantic. Whilst there is a risk of a few well-scattered and mostly light showers developing across western Ireland during the afternoon, the main focus will be during the evening hours with an increase risk of thundery showers affecting some western coasts of Ireland, the risk continuing into the night and extending further north.
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2009, 07:01:25 pm »

Active thunderstorms breaking out in W Ireland now. Sat, Sun, and Mon are looking good for action. Waiting to see what the experts say...
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