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Thunderstorm Outlook - Sat August 2nd

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: August 01, 2008, 11:12:14 pm »



Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 02 Aug 2008 06:00 to Sun 03 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 01 Aug 2008 21:16
Forecaster: DAHL
SYNOPSIS

Progressive zonal upper flow will establish over Europe during the period, with lead vort max moving into the Baltic States by until early Sunday morning. Low-level cold front attendant to this feature will likewise move eastwards, curving from the Baltic States across the W Ukraine into the Alpine region towards the end of the forecast period. Weak cyclogenesis is simulated to occur over the Baltics ahead late in the day. Synoptically quiescent conditions persist over southern Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Poland ... Baltic States ...

MLCAPEs on the order of 1000 J/kg are anticipated ahead of the cold front over E-central Europe ahead of the cold front. Deep shear is simulated to be in the 10 to 15 m/s range, increasing to 20 m/s over N Poland late in the day. In response to cyclogenesis, LLS will likewise increase over this region.

Expect numerous storms along the cold front to develop early in the day, which may merge into somewhat poorly organized clusters, which could briefly produce hail/wind approaching severe limits. Towards the evening, storms may become better organized over N Poland, with an increased threat for large hail and damaging winds, as well as for tornadoes.

Farther north, there seems to be a brief time window arount 18Z where 20 m/s DLS overspreads at least weakly unstable air, sufficient for well-organized multicells and isolated mesocyclones. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with these storms in the evening hours.

... Balkans ... Alpine regions ...

Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with storms over the Alpine region as well as over the E Balkans, but this threat should be quite brief and sporadic in nature given minimal shear, so a large categorical risk is not warranted for these regions at the moment.

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2008, 06:33:45 pm »

Today has produced some of the best convection I have seen all year. Fantastic big cu and anvils. Also caught three gust fronts. Well defined dark cloud bases with obvious rotation. Very heavy showers to. Amazed there has been no electrics here but what a sight those clouds were!
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