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Thunderstorm Outlook - Sun August 3rd

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Author Topic: Thunderstorm Outlook - Sun August 3rd  (Read 167 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« on: August 03, 2008, 10:40:47 am »

Update from Tony Gilbert. 10.20am Sun UPDATE

As per earlier forecast.

Given the lack of shear, storm motion is expected to be rather slow. Such conditions typically produce a large area of cold outflow at surface which gradually spreads out from the core. The end result might see some thunderstorms initially, and then lapse rates will weaken rapidly. With this in mind the best activity looks to be wherever the first lot of convection develops.

From Paul Blight...

The 00Z Castor Bay Ascent indicated decent amount of CAPE and Pr Water below 700mbs, but with an inversion above 700mbs, therefore thunder is perhaps less likely than yesterday, but with still scope for Heavy Rain from some of these Showers across S Scotland and N Ireland and N England. If temps can rise a bit and with some additional uplift - Sperrin Mountains or the Southern Uplands- then Isolated Thunder is possible.

Even further south across the Midlands there is some CAPE below 700mbs - with some capability of some heavy downpours assoc with the Tm Airmass across England which is cooled by the approaching upper trough, (destabilise SMZ)

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