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Storm forecast for Ukraine - May.12

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Roman White
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« on: May 12, 2009, 03:28:17 pm »

May 12
The weather doesn't let to forget about it.  Wink Several interesting storm forecasts have been issued for today and tomorrow.

First, Ukrainian meteocentre...
On May.12 in Ukraine (except of Crimea and E regions) thunderstorm, local hail, squalls 15-20 m/s will occure. In Carpathian mts., N and central regions heavy rainfalls are possible.

ESTOFEX:
T-storms in Poltava (possibly 'level 1') and 'level 1' alert for a great part of Ukraine.

Quote
A level 1 was issued for the W and central Ukraine, SE Belarus and W Russia for large hail and severe winds.

SYNOPSIS
Tuesday at 0600 UTC, mid-level charts feature an intense trough from northern Scandinavia to W Poland. During the forecast period, a low cuts off from the trough and becomes established over Smolensk Oblast. There, intense surface cyclogenesis is also expected as the upper-level systems interacts with a frontal zone. Upstream of the trough, a ridge stretches from the Shetlands to W Germany. Further upstream, a low is situated over the Bay of Biscay. On the SE flank of that low, a 30 m/s jet streak is present from SW Iberia to the Alps. While being well-defined in the lower troposphere also, it tends to propagate downstream somewhat during the period. A subtle shortwave ridge over Iberia moves NE ward and connects with the Shetland-W Germany ridge. A baroclinic zone stretches across eastern Spain towards central France. A clear surface front stretches eastward across Europe, from the Paris region eastward across southern Germany to N Hungary, to E Belarus -- where the surface cyclogenesis is expected -- and onwards along the Valdai Hills to the northern Russian Plain.

DISCUSSION
Ukraine, Central Russian Upland, Smolensk-Moscow Upland...
In response to the approaching trough, upward vertical motion is expected to occur increasingly within the warm air-mass east of the front, and convective storms are expected to form in the morning. Moderate deep-layer shear, around 15 m/s, and CAPE around 1000 J/kg indicate that soem threat of large hail will exist.
Additionally, as low-level winds increase in response to pressure falls, the storms may produce a few severe wind gusts, It is expected however, that the convection will cease during the evening as instability diminishes.

Meteoblue forecasts the greatest rainfall at 04-06 AM tomorrow (May.13) - 4-15 l/m2, possibly up to 20 l/m2 !


and how it looks at SAT24 at 17:30 EEST...

P.S. What beautiful clear skies you have there guys! Wink
« Last Edit: May 12, 2009, 03:46:44 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

SkyWatcher 130/900mm EQ3, Bresser 76/700mm, 20x90 bino. and other, Olympus SP-550UZ
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Roman White
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2009, 03:52:54 pm »

Not much to report from today.

Another hot day (+26C max), clear skies in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon (Cu med., several Cb's). Again, it looked like nothing will happen until I watched the forecasts  Grin

Wind speed increased in the afternoon (3-6 m/s), next at 5PM an As layer came from W and covered all sky in a few minutes. Now waiting for a first rain in the evening and maybe a good storm at night / early next morning.

18:05 - Nothing yet here, but it looks good. Wind speed doesn't decrease (3-7 m/s), and the sky becomes darker. Smiley

P.S. T-storm with rain & hail reported from Lubny, Poltava region (100km W from me) at 3PM today. A few more T-storms in W-S directions across 100-150 km radius.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2009, 04:07:00 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Roman White
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2009, 04:02:56 pm »

May 13
Ukrainian meteocentre's alert:
During the night of May.12/13 in Ukraine (except of W, Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions) and during the daytime in E, central, SE regions and Crimea thunderstorms will occure, local heavy downpours, hail and squalls 19-24 m/s are possible.

May 14
The weather will be possibly good in Ukraine, but I can see now that a major cyclone (with possible wet snow!!) will be doing its job in W Russia and Belarus.
I will be in Kyiv on that day, so I may experience some rain.
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brianb
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2009, 04:29:50 pm »

Quote
What beautiful clear skies you have there guys!
Thanks - makes a nice change from the usual grey damp clag.
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Big Dipper
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2009, 10:41:09 am »

Unfortunately I'm under the blanket of cloud in that satellite image - so no clear night for me. It is still drizzling as I type this.

However as my roots are from Scotland I'm glad to see them have some decent weather for a change!
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Andy
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2009, 03:11:45 pm »

Meteoblue forecasts the most intense rainfall at 04-06 AM tomorrow (May.13) - 4-15 l/m2, possibly up to 20 l/m2 !
The rainfall occured but in smaller amounts than expected. Raining again since yesterday (May.12) late evening until 7AM today. Most intense at midnight (3...4 mm/hour), total 10mm.
A cold front passed today at 8AM - cloudy skies (Sc) with drizzle quickly chaged with almost clear skies (only 20% Sc). The temperature dropped from +14C (4AM) to +9C (8AM). Maximal wind speed 7-10 m/s.

As the weather became colder, thunderstorms are unlikely during a few next days. But they may continue with a new power since weekend or next week.  Smiley
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Roman White
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2009, 09:35:50 pm »

May 14
The weather will be possibly good in Ukraine, but I can see now that a major cyclone (with possible wet snow!!) will be doing its job in W Russia and Belarus.
I will be in Kyiv on that day, so I may experience some rain.
May 14: update

ESTOFEX's forecast for that day: T-storms in N Ukraine


Quote
SYNOPSIS
A high west of Scandinavia dominates the northern European mid-level flow with a cold trough over eastern Europe and another short-wave trough moving westward across southern Scandinavia. Western Europe is affected by an Atlantic low that amplifies into Africa, leading to cold air advection into most of the Iberian Peninsula and western France. Warm and unstable air masses remain from the Alps to the Balkans and east Mediterranean.

I was in Kyiv on Thu (8AM-5PM), and I can confirm the forecast - it was correct again. Smiley

The temperatures were cool on that day (up to +15C in Kyiv, +17C in Poltava). Clear in the morning, closer to noon the clouds arrived from NW. Insignificant rain at ~3PM.
On the way back to Poltava (4PM-6PM) I saw several distant storm cells from Kyiv to 100km east of Kyiv.
(I'll add a few images later)

P.S. Nothing but an insignificant rain was reported from Poltava.
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