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Convective Potential Ireland/NI Sat-Thurs May 16th-21st

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Author Topic: Convective Potential Ireland/NI Sat-Thurs May 16th-21st  (Read 1301 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: May 15, 2009, 06:16:14 pm »

Think it's about time to begin a thread on the convective potential across Ireland and N. Ireland from Sat May 16th to Thurs May 21st. The GFS charts have been showing instability for each day during this period. No doubt some of this will be down graded closer to the time, however for the time being it's worth monitoring. Sat evening around 15.00 is showing good CAPE and LI for NI, 12.00 in the same day for central Ireland also. Here's the 6z chart from Netweather.



Assuming we can get the Sun to break out (which may or may not be a problem) then solar heating should pep up some convective cells/showers of rain and hail/ and perhaps t-storms somewhere. The tornado param is also over NI during the same period. Will wait and see what the experts say after 12z update tonight.
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martinastro
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2009, 12:40:20 am »

ESTOFEX are going with nothing for Sat which is strange, don't trust them anyway.

RTE forecast tonight gave thundery activity for Ireland well into the middle of next week. Will see what the forecast says in the morning.
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2009, 10:14:08 am »



Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-16 07:22:00
Valid: 2009-05-15 23:00:00 - 2009-05-16 22:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland (including Wales, much of England and southern Scotland)

Synopsis
As a cold front moves eastwards across the UK during Saturday, an unstable airmass is left in its wake. Numerous showers are expected to affect many western parts of the UK, with a risk of hail and thunder. Conditions over Northern Ireland and Ireland are most favourable for the development of thundery showers, but thunder and lightning cannot be ruled out in the WATCH region. Gusty winds and hail are likely to accompany many showers. There exists a threat of the showers turning increasingly thundery in nature across northern England during the evening, but this is still uncertain and will require careful monitoring during Saturday. Showers will continue across many western areas in particular until the end of the forecast period.
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2009, 11:17:00 am »

Netweather forecast...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=
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martinastro
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2009, 10:27:10 pm »

Ok, still waiting for the official forecasts to come out but Monday looks to be the day for N. Ireland. CAPE between 500-600 and LI of -3 (assuming it isn't downgraded in the morning) which should produce some intense showers and t-storm potential. Instability is present straight from the word go with LI at 0 at 09.00. All of NI looks to be in business by the afternoon and on into the evening. Let's hope for some strong solar heating for convective action. There's more chances on Tues, with the unsettled and potentially thundery set-up for much of the week.
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martinastro
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2009, 11:37:13 pm »



Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-17 22:26:00
Valid: 2009-05-17 23:00:00 - 2009-05-18 22:59:00

Regions Affected
Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest & Northeast England (all of the UK is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis
An unstable airmass continues to affect much of the UK during Monday. Showers will affect many western coasts from the very beginning of this forecast period, but they are forecast to become increasingly heavy, frequent and widespread, particularly in northern UK during Monday. Thunderstorms are also likely to develop in response to daytime heating, especially across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland and Northern England. The showers will be heavy in most places, but across England and Wales strong and gusty winds will ensure that the showers only last a short period, whilst across Scotland and Northern Ireland lighter winds could give rise to local flooding due to persistent torrential downpours in places. Hail and gusty winds are likely to accompany many showers. The showers should rapidly decrease in coverage around or soon after sunset.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2009, 11:38:49 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2009, 05:07:20 pm »

Sferics SW of Lough Neagh. Too far away from me but the sky to the S and SE of Slieve Gallion is an evil dark blue colour clustered with convection. Looks to be a big storm in that direction!.
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martinastro
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2009, 05:39:36 pm »

More lightning from that storm to the SE of Lough Neagh and near the E coast of NI. John, you must have seen this one passing through?
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John9929
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2009, 05:49:32 pm »

I was out at the time so no camera, however I did see a couple of good flashes but didn't hear much thunder, quite a bit of rain though.
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martinastro
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2009, 06:23:20 pm »

Thanks for the info John. Belfast harbour reporting thunder. That's probably it for the day now until Tues.
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martinastro
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2009, 01:21:00 am »



Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-18 21:40:00
Valid: 2009-05-19 00:00:00 - 2009-05-19 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland & Ireland (the whole of the UK is included in the WATCH region)

Synopsis
An unstable airmass continues to affect the United Kingdom during Tuesday, as a result of Low Pressure situated
to the northwest of Scotland at noon Tuesday. Showers are expected to be widespread across the whole of the united Kingdom during the morning in particular, and many are likely to be heavy and locally torrential. Gradually through the day, the showers will ease in number across southern England, but at the same time, as a result of daytime heating in particular, some of the showers may turn thundery in nature, most likely across the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Conditions are not thought to be favourable for clusters, and so any storms that do develop are likely to be isolated and perhaps short-lived. Hail and gusty winds may accompany many showers. Whilst Eire is the main area of interest, some additional instability is suggested to develop over Wales/West Midlands during the morning, which may allow isolated thunderstorms to develop here, which would then head northeastwards into Yorkshire and Lincolnshire during the late afternoon, before heading off into the North Sea during the evening. However, this remains uncertain and will need careful monitoring during the day. Any showers that do develop are expected to reduce in coverage very rapidly during the evening, with the exception of Ireland where some thunderstorms may persist for a while during the evening.
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martinastro
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2009, 07:54:40 pm »

Everything seemed so good here today, plenty of warm sunshine which got the convection going during the afternoon. Lots of very black clouds around, forming a shelf-type structure with an obvious area of rotating scud, funnel clouds seemed possible several times despite the lack of wind shear. This was followed by sharp showers and plenty of congestus, several cbs, some mammatus and even whale's mouth type structure not associated with a shelf. By the the late afternoon it was show over, just grey outflowy cloud and drizzle. A real let down. The salt was rubbed in the wound when I retured home and seen the t-storms which formed below Lough Neagh again. I heard reports of thunder/lightning, torrential rain and flooding. Everything seemed to miss here again. The highlight though was a monster cell I spotted at 17.00 on the S horizon to the E of Slieve Gallion with a huge solid white anvil, it looked to be doing the business!!, impressive beast. Round 3 on Wed.
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martinastro
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2009, 10:15:40 pm »

Here's the convective forecast for Ireland & Uk - Wed. Risk map is on the link.

http://www.southweatherforum.com/storm-forecast-wednesday-20th-may-2009-t564.html

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-19 20:32:00
Valid: 2009-05-20 00:00:00 - 2009-05-20 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern & Eastern Scotland, Central Belt of Scotland, Northern Ireland, much of Ireland, West & East Midlands, East & South Wales and the West Country (all of the UK, excluding the Southeast, is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis
A developing area of LOW pressure approaches southern Ireland during the course of Wednesday morning. Scattered showers, some heavy, are forecast to develop in many parts of western, central and northern UK. The areas most likely to be affected are those highlighted in the THUNDERSTORM regions on the map. Hail, gusty winds and occasional lightning can be expected from many of the showers. Convergence lines may develop showers in distinct SW-NE orientated lines, particularly from the Severn Estuary to The Wash. Northern Ireland/Ireland are most favourable for thunderstorm development, but thunderstorms cannot be ruled out elsewhere due to reasonable conditions. Lighter winds will ensure any showers/storms are slow moving and so local flooding is a risk from torrential, slow-moving downpours. Whilst most showers will rapidly decrease in coverage during the evening, showery outbreaks of rain will continue to affect parts of Wales and northern England until the end of the forecast period, with a risk of thunder.
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martinastro
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2009, 10:01:22 am »

Latest GFS update looks great. By the afternoon and early evening there's 600 CAPE for N. Ireland with the LI at -2. The region around, and S of Lough Neagh is -3. Plenty of solar heating too. Could be another day of t-storms for some.
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martinastro
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2009, 11:50:23 am »

Met Office warning for Co. Down and Antrim

Scattered heavy thundery downpours will develop this afternoon and last into this evening. These may give localised falls of 15-20mm within a 3 hour period. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to 'Traffic Watch (NI)' for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1143 Wed 20 May
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