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Storm forecast for Ukraine - May.08-11

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Author Topic: Storm forecast for Ukraine - May.08-11  (Read 652 times)
Roman White
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« on: May 07, 2009, 10:27:15 pm »

May 08
Ukrainian meteocenter:
On May.08 in central, E and S regions local thunderstorms and wind gusts (15-20m/s) are possible

ESTOFEX forecast (updated Fri 08 May 2009 12:00UT)

Quote
SYNOPSIS
(...) A cut-off low over the W-Black Sea results in unsettled conditions over the E-Ukraine, whereas mostly stable conditions occur over NE-Europe.

DISCUSSION
(...)
... CNTL/E-Ukraine...
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develop over the area in a weakly sheared environment, so despite an isolated large hail risk, no severe risk will occur with that activity. Thunderstorms leave the area of responsibility during the late afternoon, while weakening.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2009, 02:44:37 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Roman White
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2009, 05:39:43 pm »

The forecasts were correct - today was an excellent thunderstorm day!  Cheesy

Starting today at 11AM with a good convection. A small photosession at noon.
12:22 It looks very promising...  Smiley


12:25 Cb in W


12:35 A good example of Cu fra. with nice light. Will add it to my album  Smiley


12:37 This cloud (lower right) was approaching me from NE. What should I call it?
(a few minutes later it passed in a few km south, producing here insignificant rain)


12:42 Cb in N


looking SE at 13:09
(that wasn't a funnel cloud, just a virga or something similar imho)


Next at 13:55 first rainfall occured - it was a heavy one indeed - 2mm of precip. falled during only 2-3 minutes.
(next 2 shots captured in a few minutes after it)

The same downpour is visible, moving further west

note the bright sunlight just in a few minutes after heavy rain; and it was warm, ca. +19C  Smiley


The sky became more fair in the afternoon and I went for a walk across the city centre at 5PM ...and took no umbrella with me, ...oh, I wish I'd better do it.  Shocked The T-storm was approaching from NE, it started raining at 17:10 and I needed to run away home.  Grin Intense rain lasted 1 hour, along with a good thunder, no lightning seen though. During that hour the temperature drop was 6 degrees (+19 to +13C)

A chart of lightning activity at 15-16:00 UT. As you can see, the epicentre was situated above Poltava region this evening.

(source)
P.S. The LP area is centered above the Azov Sea, the main action occurs along the line from the Black Sea coast (Crimea) across Poltava region to russian boundary (near Kharkov).
« Last Edit: May 08, 2009, 06:25:46 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2009, 05:55:40 pm »

Great stuff Roman, nice to read about that good t-storm. Did you see a shelf cloud along the leading edge of it?. Hope the images turn out well, looking forward to seeing them. Thanks for the t-storm update from your country.  Smiley
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2009, 06:28:00 pm »

Thanks Martin, I've just updated my post with images
Did you see a shelf cloud along the leading edge of it?.
No, I didn't

I have one strange formed cloud which I cannot describe (12:37). Can you identify it?  Huh
« Last Edit: May 08, 2009, 06:32:25 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2009, 07:18:07 pm »

Hi Roman, very nice images and account which sums the day up very well indeed. I really the like the 2nd last image!.

I'm not sure what 12.37 is, looks like some kind cumulus?
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2009, 09:06:33 pm »

I'm not sure what 12.37 is, looks like some kind cumulus?
Of course cumulus, but looking a bit weird. It attracted my attention because it was lower than other neighbour clouds, "well condensed" and darker than other. Not much unusual in that cloud but its development remains to be an enigma to me.
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Roman White
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« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2009, 10:38:14 am »

May 09

First of all I want to share my congratulations with everybody here. Today many countries celebrate the Day of Victory in World War II, and the glory of soldiers couldn't be forgotten.

Now back to the weather...
(Edited): ESTOFEX changed its forecast for Poltava from level 1 to simply thunderstorm alert.

thunderstorm alert for W, E Ukraine and most of central and S regions...

Quote
(...)
A level 1 was issued for the central Ukraine mainly for large hail and heavy rainfall. - next cancelled

SYNOPSIS
Between a mid/upper-cyclone over the Norwegian Sea and a broad ridge stretching from the central Mediterranean to western Russia, the flow over most of the continent is from the southwest. Another closed low, to the southeast of the ridge, is located over the Sea of Azov and moves to the southeast. A frontal zone is located from western Finland across the Baltic States to central France to NW Spain. A frontal wave develops in the left exit region of a south-westerly speed max over Iberia, and translates to Germany during the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION
(...)
Central Ukraine...
Withn a zone of moderate shear, considerable cape is expected to develop, i.e. 1000-1500 J/kg, suggesting a large hail threat withany storm that forms. Models are in agreement in developing large amounts of convective precipitation, too. This, in combination with a rather weak suggest that a heavy rain threat exists here as well.

Ukrainian meteocentre:
In the daytime of May.09 in E regions, Crimea, Azov Sea and Dnipropetrovsk region thunderstorms, local hail and squalls 15-20 m/s are possible.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2009, 07:40:48 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2009, 10:41:17 am »

At 11AM-12PM there was a plenty of Cu med. and a few distant Cu cong. in the sky, but in general it kept partly cloudy ~60%. Also I've noticed an increasing amount of As and a short rain at ~12:20.

Intense rain was here at 13:30-13:50, sometimes turning into a heavy shower. Thundering a few times.

Blitortung.org:
at 12h. lightning strike in ~50km SW from Poltava, numerous T-storms in S Ukraine
« Last Edit: May 09, 2009, 12:29:28 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2009, 01:49:23 pm »

You have great CAPE values today Roman, I hope you get some action, maybe even large hail too.  Smiley
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2009, 01:58:57 pm »

Quiet here at the moment, but I can see plenty of Cb's in all directions. And it seems like not a single cloud but a massive storm cell approaches from E...

14:39 Cu cast. in E


15:18 Cb in SE


15:41 This was the most impressive view from today - massive Cb far in east and I guess there was something a little smaller directly overhead (behind the upper right corner of image)


16:04 looking NW, no comments...


Lightning activity chart from http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/EurAfricaL_plot_weather_map.jpg


SAT24 image:

Looks like a LP area is centered above SE Ukraine (Azov Sea - Donetsk region), and the cyclon spins across S, central regions of Ukraine and nearby Russian lands.

P.S. T-storms and heavy rain are reported at the moment from Kremenchuk & Dnipropetrovsk, some 100-200km away from me.

P.P.S. Intense rainfall here at 17:20-18:30
« Last Edit: May 09, 2009, 07:42:16 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Roman White
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2009, 07:46:01 pm »

(I've updated my upper post with images)

And more from today's evening:

19:36 Sunset. The sky had cleared for a moment (again overcast in a hour later)


are those tiny mammatus forming?
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« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2009, 07:51:40 pm »

Thanks for the update Roman, and very nice images documenting the changing airmass through the day. I like the towering cumulus/updraught in the last image, looks like very strong air currents going up in that one.

The very last image is interesting with the small mammatus. Looking at the streaks below they may have formed from an orphan/decaying anvil, either that or cool air sinking through the atmosphere.

Any large hail/funnel reports from Ukraine today?
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« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2009, 07:53:25 pm »

May 10

Ukrainian meteocentre provides the same alert...
Throughout the day of May.10 in E regions, Crimea, Azov Sea and Dnipropetrovsk region thunderstorms, local hail and squalls 15-20 m/s are possible.

ESTOFEX: thunderstorms in W, E and S Ukraine.
Possibly in Poltava too.
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« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2009, 07:57:49 pm »

Thanks for the update Roman, and very nice images documenting the changing airmass through the day. I like the towering cumulus/updraught in the last image, looks like very strong air currents going up in that one.

The very last image is interesting with the small mammatus. Looking at the streaks below they may have formed from an orphan/decaying anvil, either that or cool air sinking through the atmosphere.

Any large hail/funnel reports from Ukraine today?
Thanks Martin.

I don't know exactly what has happened at sunset... but in general it was clearing after a total greyout (Ns, Sc) and rain. Maybe you're right.
This is one of not many times when I have observed and photographed mammatus. Smiley

I have heard no severe weather reports yet.

Ukrainian meteocentre reports hail in the next regions:
(caused by southeastern cyclone) hail in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov, Poltava (including the city), Nikolaiev regions;
(also in W Ukraine) - Lviv region.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2009, 08:28:00 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2009, 03:14:15 pm »

May 10 - no thunderstorms, even no rain. Observed plenty of Cu med. and several Cb's in the daytime.

---------------------------------------
May 11

No storm forecasts have been announced for this day, but actually there was a little possibility of T-storms.

Clear in the morning, partly cloudy (Cu med.) in the afternoon and it seemed to me like a fair day (btw, it was hot: +29C max) and I thought nothing will occure...
until I phoned my grandmother (she lives in 10km away) and she told about a heavy rain!!  Shocked
It was ca. 6PM, I went outside and saw nice clear skies everywhere except SW. There was an isolated storm cell in ca.10-15km SW and a wide As anvil which was almost overhead at my home.
I quickly grabbed the camera and captured some images - also there was visible a heavy downpour below that distant Cb. (Sorry, I have no time now to post images). I waited with a big hope, as the storm was heading directly in my direction!  Cheesy But how much disappointing... the cell was getting smaller and smaller, the anvil was getting shorter (hence again not overhead) and the distant rain was not so evident. The storm cell was destructing!  Cry (Ok, there was not much time before sunset, but anyway it was disappointing).
« Last Edit: May 12, 2009, 03:45:42 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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