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Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th

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Author Topic: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th  (Read 1835 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2009, 10:51:43 am »

Looks like Scotland had a lively night during the early morning hours with loads of lightning and gales!

Instability is still on for Fri. Risk of heavy showers of rain/hail/thunder from the word go!. The atmosphere even turns unstable after midnight on Thurs so the odd flash cant be ruled out in those coastal showers during the night hours.
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scott86
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2009, 01:51:54 pm »

Just seen the weather on tv, intense rain, squally winds with thunder mixed in to pass over tonight, havnt seen anythng forecast on the internet though???
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martinastro
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2009, 02:07:31 pm »

I seen that to Scott and have asked a question on another forum. Definitely looks like one to watch. I checked the lightningwizard charts and although I can't comment on thunder they do show the potential for a tornado from that front. I'm guessing if the front is severe enough it should lift/force the warm air ahead of it upwards causing convective cells which could produce some lightning. If they get organized then there would the potential for another severe squall line to form...and we recall the last one very well.  Smiley. Definitely worth watching the radar this evening. If anyone here is crazy enough to go out and watch the front arrive in, while getting battered by wind and rain, there's the chance of seeing a great shelf cloud  Smiley. Might give it a go myself. Let's hope some of the weather forums will provide us with more info. Maybe TORRO will issue a forecast soon.
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scott86
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2009, 02:11:14 pm »

I could safely say il be one of those crazy people!  Smiley hopefully there will still be a bit of daylight to get a few snaps and videos! il be keeping a close eye out on the internet!
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martinastro
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2009, 02:14:00 pm »

Great to hear it Scott...I will be thinking about you when I'm getting soaked  Smiley. Sky already has a nasty look to it.

Here's the RTE forecast, if those wind speeds are correct then a severe wind event is likely...

Today's Weather
Cool and windy with brief sunny spells and scattered showers. The showers will merge to heavier rain in the west before spreading countrywide this afternoon and evening with the risk of isolated thunderstorms. Southwest winds will increase very strong with gusts up to 100 km/h. Highest temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees.

Tonight's Weather
Tonight will be cool and very windy with clear spells and occasional showers. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the west with the risk of hail or thunder. Southwest winds will reach gale force with gusts as high as 110 km/h - especially in the north and west. Lowest temperatures will range 4 to 8 degrees.

Tomorrow Friday will be cool and blustery with a mix of sunny spells and further showers, with a continuing risk of hail and thunder.
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martinastro
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« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2009, 02:18:07 pm »

This is from the Irish Weather Network...

They are calling for a quite an active front to cross the country later. There is mild and moist air ahead over us atm so the potential of more 'favourable' advection into the front could be there. From just looking at present conditions across the country, a full on squall line to develop is low but with with more active parts on the front than others i think with the mtns aiding in lift. I think the surface temps are far too low for convection to aid in the front when it crosses over the country.

West east split with west having the heavier stuff.
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martinastro
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« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2009, 02:21:07 pm »

From 'Two' weather forum...

Certainly looks like a squall line will pass through most of the country through the evening and night.

Squally winds, heavy rain and potentially hail and embedded thunderstorms are a possibility.

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scott86
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2009, 02:25:25 pm »

Sounds very promising indeed! Fingers crossed on some lightning over this direction!! Cameras at the ready! Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2009, 02:25:36 pm »

Here's two charts. The first is the experimental spout/tornado index. The 2nd is the siginifcant tornado param.

http://i43.tinypic.com/28a2rt0.png

http://i42.tinypic.com/xla4uh.png
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martinastro
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« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2009, 04:28:29 pm »

Here's a quick mention about Fri from Tony Gilbert. Nice of him to have a look at the forecast since he's in the US storm chasing at the min!...

''Yes, based on the current GFS model output tomorrow should bring some thundery showers to Ireland, Scotland, N.UK and Wales through Friday. Weak wind shear reduces the risk of anything severe occurring. Though we can expect some gusts to reach 35 kts in line with the 850 mb jet stream. Lapse rates look pretty intense with cold pooling aloft so expect some small hail reports''.
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martinastro
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« Reply #25 on: May 07, 2009, 04:42:35 pm »

Here's the cold front making landfall over W. Ireland. Credit: Sat24

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scott86
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« Reply #26 on: May 07, 2009, 05:13:53 pm »

it will probly be hitting you martin before it reaches here, keep me updated! Smiley
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stuart2588
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« Reply #27 on: May 07, 2009, 07:19:16 pm »

Raintoday.co.uk is showing quite heavy returns
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stuart2588
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« Reply #28 on: May 07, 2009, 07:35:29 pm »

It has arrived here in Glengormley. Heavy winds and small hail.
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« Reply #29 on: May 07, 2009, 07:37:20 pm »

Here's two charts. The first is the experimental spout/tornado index.

http://i43.tinypic.com/28a2rt0.png
The same chart also indicates impressive situation in central and S Ukraine.  Smiley
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