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Waiting for a first T-storm in Poltava - May.04-07

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Author Topic: Waiting for a first T-storm in Poltava - May.04-07  (Read 520 times)
Roman White
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« on: May 04, 2009, 03:32:46 pm »

May 04

Well, they forecasted T-storms in central Ukraine - maybe the first time this year (?).
But I have seen absolutely nothing:
 in the morning the sky was almost clear with ~50% of Ac;
 throughout the day the sky was almost completely covered with Sc, some possibility of rain existed (although it didn't rain), but no evidence of any convection or T-storm activity.

I don't see no T-storm activity in Ukraine at Blitzortung.org either.

Just in a moment ago (17h) the sky started to clear, a bit of Ac, Sc is still present and I already see the waxing gibbous Moon  Smiley
« Last Edit: May 07, 2009, 05:13:37 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2009, 03:41:12 pm »

That's unfortunate Roman, there must have been some other ingredient which prevented the formation of strong convection, maybe there was a cap which stopped vertical growth, I don't know. I'm sure there will be plenty of other days when you will get them. At least you can see the Moon  Smiley
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2009, 03:53:27 pm »

maybe there was a cap which stopped vertical growth, I don't know.
Imho there was no vertical growth at all.
BTW, there is the cold front slowly moving E to W across S Ukraine (some 200-400km away) it must be raining there.

Yes, the Moon is a good sign for a clear evening  Smiley
« Last Edit: May 04, 2009, 04:37:57 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Roman White
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2009, 05:05:47 pm »

I went out in the garden for a few minutes and it turned out into a very nice photosession - today is the best evening to have fun with camera in usual conditions  Smiley

A small photoreport... http://astrophotoweather.smfforfree4.com/index.php/topic,1325.new.html#new
« Last Edit: May 04, 2009, 07:00:00 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2009, 03:59:20 pm »

That looks like a very pleasant day Roman.

I meant to ask you, do you get many tornadoes in Ukraine?, have there been any big events?
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2009, 06:01:19 pm »

I meant to ask you, do you get many tornadoes in Ukraine?, have there been any big events?
Tornadoes are rare, but I know they can occure, possibly one or several of them each year (in summer only, of course).

The last one, which I can recall, occured in mid-Aug.2008, in Crimea (20km NE from Feodosia). Maybe I told about it before... it had possibly formed above Azov Sea, next ran across a single village on the seacoast - several house roofs were ruined there, nothing serious imho. The most funny thing was that at that time I was at the Black Sea coast in Feodosia and haven't noticed any T-storm activity (being 20km away!) ...heard about it on TV a few hours later in the evening.  Grin

Also several times during recent years I have heard about tornadoes in W and N Ukraine. The only one I exactly remember is a one which occured in Volyn region a year or two ago - a dozen or so of houses were seriously damaged.
I know almost nothing about 'big events' - maybe they have occured far in the past.
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Roman White
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2009, 06:25:31 pm »

Much more interesting forecast for today, May.05:

Level 1 severe weather alert in Poltava.

Also on Ukrainian meteocenter website:
On May.05 in S, central and E regions local thunderstorms, somewhere gusts 15-20 m/s are possible.

Well, it indeed looked more interesting than yesterday, but far away from 'level 1'...

I woke up at 7AM, the sky was 90% Ac. When I was outside at 9AM I much unexpectedly saw some very good convection - like in a good stormy summer day.  Smiley High towering Cu, ca.80% of the sky, it also looked like a storm cell with rain in some 5-10km away to the south. I haven't noticed the time when all of it has developed!  Shocked
I was on my way to the university and I thought that the rain & T-storm is just the matter of time. Indeed, at ~10:30 I saw through the window moderate wind gusts, grey skies and even heard thunder several times...
(Sorry - no images from today morning)
But... it didn't rain! The skies keeped looking 'stormy' till evening, but the ground remained dry (possibly there was some insignificant rain). Again, at 5PM I saw a storm cell, it was ca.10-20km NW from me. Nothing else occured in the evening, however the skies are full of Sc until now (8PM).

I assume it was a false warning. The results of today's weather are: weak T-storms in the neighbourhood, no rain and no strong winds, daytime temperature +11...+18C.

P.S. I remember, last year we were talking about ESTOFEX forecasts that they are often overestimated. But has anybody noticed the times when ESTOFEX highly underestimated the t-storm activity?
« Last Edit: May 07, 2009, 05:56:52 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2009, 06:58:30 pm »

I'm reading Ukrainian meteocenter's website at the current moment...

Yesterday in some southern regions of Ukraine there were t-storms, daily rainfall amount 30...60mm, in Mariupol (Donetsk region) - 83 mm of rain.
Yahoo!  Cheesy I recall June 13-14, 2006 in Poltava with 72mm of rain and 5 thunderstorms during two days!  Cool

Currently (as reported at 18h EEST) they indicate T-storms in some of NE, S and central regions (not Poltava).

Also, a neighbour phoned me this evening (he was in Sumy region at the moment) and told about T-storms there.

P.S. Еhe meteocenter reported t-storm with rain & hail in Poltava at 9AM! I think it was a local cell (possibly the one I saw in the morning too) and it has passed me by in several km distance... :-/

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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2009, 12:05:48 pm »

ESTOFEX forecasts nothing for today, but...

something is going on here!  Shocked
I have no time to tell now, I'll be back late in the evening  Smiley
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2009, 01:44:15 pm »

Looking forward to any updates Roman.  Smiley
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2009, 01:48:07 pm »

Yes, I have noticed quite a few times how ESTOFEX underestimated activity. The March severe squall line and t-storm which moved through here is a recent example. I have also seen days of t-storms when no t-storms were forecast. On other occasions they produce an excellent forecast but I often take it with a little pinch of salt  Smiley
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2009, 05:15:18 pm »

May 06

As I said before, ESTOFEX didn't forecast anything for this day, Ukrainian meteocenter kept quiet too.

But in my opinion, the weather was better than in 2 previous days.

Gentle rain with pauses morning till afternoon, and all that time the skies looked 'stormy'.
At ~13:30 I saw very dark cloud at E horizon, and ca. 30 minutes later I went outside with a camera, as the cloud seemed to move directly overhead. It looked quite impressive to me.

Facing SE, the Sun (right upper corner) is still not obstructed with this cloud, and W horizon even had clear gaps.
13:58


SE horizon, zoomed
14:02


I was unable to frame all the cloud with my lens, imho it would be very hard even with a super wide angle, so I captured a short videoclip:

14:01


Unfortunately, all these pretty things passed by me (again!), I suppose the cell moved NE to S, 10-15km away from me.
At the same moment, just after capturing those shots I needed to go to the city centre, so I thought that I will appear directly inside the storm, but almost nothing occured as the storm cell had chaged its movement direction.

When I went back home at 5PM, the sky was very busy, I seen different storm cells in almost all directions (except of S-SE), some of them were as close as 10-20km. Nothing more on this day.

The sky became relatively clear since 6-7PM.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2009, 06:21:28 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Roman White
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2009, 05:34:05 pm »

Offtopic:

Funnel cloud at Ukrainian/Polish boundary
reported to ESWD from Kalinkow, near Przemysl, Poland by Piotr Ferków
See this link (inc. 2 photos)

From author's words:
Quote
Dziś to przeżyłem szok w trampkach...ok 11:30 Siedziałem u kumpla na balkonie pijąc piwko(no co...  ) gdy nagle ten się zerwał na nogi i powiedział: "ty,patrz twister!" pokazując palcem na punkt między drzewami.Ja w lekkim szoku mówie żeby skoczył szybko po coś co robi zdjęcia  .Twister to raczej nie był  ,ale piękny FC jak najbardziej. Nie jestem pewien ile czasu już sobie wirował,ale od momentu ujrzenia do jego śmierci upłynęło ok 45 sek.Aha jeszcze jedna rzecz...on raczej nie pojawił się nad terenem mojej miejscowości,lecz kilka kilometrów na wchód,prawdopodobnie nad przygranicznymi lasami.

Żeby nie być gołosłownym daje fotki:
 
PzDr

PS.Jednak moje modły zostały wysłuchane...jeszcze nie tak dawno ciągle narzekałem na pogodę,a tu proszę

I know polish very bad, anyway I'll try to translate some phrases:
It happened at ca.11:30 [GMT+2, May.06 - R.W. ] . I was sitting in my balcony and drinking beer, then I quickly stood up and shouted "(..?) tornado!", pointing with my finger towards an area between the trees. I was shocked a bit, (...) Actually, that wasn't a tornado but a fine funnel cloud. I'm not sure how long it existed there, but since I have first seen it and until it disappeared there was ~45 seconds. And, one more thing to tell... it didn't appeared above my area, but in a few kilometers to the east, possibly above the woods at Ukrainian boundary.

(...)
« Last Edit: May 07, 2009, 05:43:57 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Roman White
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2009, 06:37:18 pm »

May 07

Thunderstorm forecast from ESTOFEX:

Quote
SYNOPSIS
The geopotential will further rise across south-western Europe in the range of a broad subtropical ridge. As a new Atlantic trough amplifies into north-western Europe, weak upper disturbances will affect portions of west Europe during the period. To the east, an quite intense short-wave trough cuts off over the Baltic Sea region and moves to the Black Sea during the period. A strong mid-level jet will be present along its western flank.

DISCUSSION
Eastern Ukraine
As the cut-off low moves southward into the Black Sea region, warm air masses spread northward ahead of a cold front reaching the eastern Ukraine in the late morning hours. Warm air mass will likely be characterized by rather moist low levels and moderate mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE is expected to develop in response to some diurnal heating. Given strong forcing along the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop. As vertical wind shear is moderate, organized storms are not ruled out, capable of producing large hail. The chance seems to be too marginal for a level 1, though.

Cloudy skies all day long (Ns, Sc, As, Cu fra.)
Gentle rain in the morning;
At 12-1PM I was inside the building but I feeled the approach of the storm cell as the daylight became darker. I heard thunder a few times, and moderate rain lasted for a few hours. Now I'm sure that a T-storm moved across (or very close to) Poltava, so this was
THE FIRST THUNDERSTORM IN POLTAVA THIS YEAR  Smiley
A bit later I saw the same storm cell, in 10-15 km N (as it moved away) and another distant storm cell in 10-20 km E with rain downpours but no lightning activity.

Poor activity in the evening - some gentle rain,
image from that time (18:17, facing NW)


Total 7mm of rain today.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2009, 10:32:08 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Roman White
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2009, 10:39:58 pm »

Large hail reported today (May.07) at 12:00 from Debaltsevo, Donetsk region (source: Ukrainian meteocenter)
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