Astronomy, Photography and Weather
July 22, 2019, 09:23:15 pm
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: IAA lecture programme continues alternate Wednesdays from September - an excellent programme of lectures- Queens University Belfast - Bell Lecture Theatre. Also keep an eye out for the Summer Events
 
  Home Help Search Gallery Staff List Login Register  

Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 10th

Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 10th  (Read 596 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 5182


Maghera, N. Ireland


View Profile WWW
« on: July 09, 2008, 11:06:15 pm »

http://www.estofex.org/



Much of Ireland at risk on Thurs.

More to follow when forecast is updated.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2008, 11:12:55 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

Paul
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1297


Larne, N. Ireland


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2008, 11:10:29 pm »

Welcome to the forum Martin!

The weather turned dire here this evening, but alas no thunder and lightning yet.

Paul.
Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 5182


Maghera, N. Ireland


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2008, 11:15:56 pm »

Thanks very much Paul, I like the new place very much. TORRO have warning tonight...

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2008/015

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 18:20GMT on Wednesday 9th July 2008 Valid from/until: 18:20GMT - 0200GMT on Wed/Thurs 9th/10th July 2008 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Midlands

N Wales

Lincs, and N E Anglia

N England

S Scotland

N Ireland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, torrential rain, occasional CG lightning.

SYNOPSIS

Frontal system crossing the UK, with triple point moving across portions of Wales/N England overnight. Thunderstorms have developing INVOF surface boundary/moisture plume across Eire, and these may produce weak tornadoes in the next hour or two. Convection/thunderstorms may also develop INVOF triple point/occlusion through this evening as dry intrusion overspreads it, and perhaps southwards on the cold front. Should this occur, gusty winds may accompany it, perhaps marginally severe. Tornado risk is for the TP/cold front due to fairly cool boundary layer - however, deep shear may support rotation, and should any updraught be augmented by this, a tornado would be possible.

WATCH not deemed necessary due to overall lack of instability.

Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 5182


Maghera, N. Ireland


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2008, 12:16:17 pm »

Update from Tony Gilbert...

Slight Risk Gen Tstorms Ireland 12Z-21Z

Slight Risk Strong Tstorms Wales through to NE UK 15Z-21Z



Primary attention is given to Red Box as per convective map where GFS develop CAPE upwards of 400 j/kg. Partial  overlay of strong upper jet stream acquires impetus to any developing cell. Though vertical wind profiles tend to suggest pretty much straight lined at all levels. Particular attention is given to blue box where dry air at mid levels overlays and imposes on the track of the occlusion. This should utilise the best potential instability.

Prime threat today will be strong convective gusts (below severe)

Report Spam   Logged



Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Bookmark this site! | Upgrade This Forum
SMF For Free - Create your own Forum | Buy traffic for your forum/website

Powered by SMF | SMF © 2016, Simple Machines
Privacy Policy