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FCST: 3/23/09 TX/OK/KS/CO/NE/SD

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Author Topic: FCST: 3/23/09 TX/OK/KS/CO/NE/SD  (Read 357 times)
Tyler
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« on: March 18, 2009, 10:00:20 pm »

The ingredients are coming together for the best severe weather setup this year so far in the plains. Return moisture being plentiful, Right now highs in the low 70's to upper 60's, dews low to mid 50's. CAPE indicated in the 12z GFS looks very low (1000-1500), but most chasers would agree the mid range doesn't pick up instability too well. Shear looks very good with 90kts at 500mb.

The main problems so far are the timing of the system and minimal cape, but as I said eariler, I expect that to change. If it stalls out a bit, maybe 6 hours, and the instability is there, it could be a big day! more updates later.
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Tyler
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2009, 10:06:52 pm »

One of my bigger fears is the potential dynamic development, cells could quickly burst and just as fast turn linear into a big pile of crap. Chasing likely near the triple point, gives an even smaller chance of picking up isolated cells...hmm guess Ill wait for the 18z
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2009, 04:28:05 am »

That sounds extremely exciting Tyler!, I really hope you get the goods and have images to share with us if it all works out. That CAPE is phenomenal lol, I mean, there would be some excitement if we got that here in the UK!  Smiley. Looks like you should have enough instability for Supercells if all the other ingredients fall into place....keep us informed Tyler and good luck to you  Wink
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Tyler
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2009, 06:57:29 pm »

Recently the GFS has been speeding this system up considerably (which is closer to me and more likely possible to chase) but unfortunately the dynamics of this system make it par

Instability has gotten worse, (750-1000MLCAPE) Dews still in the upper 50's but there is marginal to good shear at all levels, which might be a bad thing with no instability, struggling leaning towers. With the LP speeding up storm motions will be faster than eariler indicated, probably 45kts or so.  With all that said, looks like the cold core solution would be more likely in the N Severe watch area, with low topped sup's developing early and quickly becoming linear into a squall line with a bigger threat of hail/high winds (60-80mph+) The possibility of iso tornadoes still exists but looks more and more unlikely with each run. Will wait to see final runs on SUN to decide.





I am located in OMAHA, looks like intiation will take place just east of KEARNEY which is about a 3 hour drive, then storms should merge into a squall line near LINCOLN and hit OMAHA between 8-11pm.

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martinastro
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2009, 08:09:39 pm »

I bet that's really worth chasing even if the tornado risk is reduced. A squall line with shelf would be really something even on it's own, or a supercell.  Smiley...I have a feeling something's cooking!...keep us updated Tyler and good luck.

Hope you are feeling better.  Smiley
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Tyler
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2009, 11:52:11 pm »

Thanks Martin  Smiley

Don't get me wrong I am very excited, I just realize that better setups will come in the future. I am going to make the most of the situation and if not chase, then do a local spot, or "mini chase" It's odd enough to have setups like this as far north as South Dakota this early, so I'll take it  Grin

Right now though, I have class till 3 on monday, so It is unlikely I will get out there by initiation, so now I am just hoping for some nice shelf structure, hopefully during the day, Definitely keep you all posted on what I decide, probably Sunday night and Monday morning.

     
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Tyler
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2009, 04:01:27 am »

Cape values are a bit better on the 00z NAM run, at about 1500 now in NE NEBRASKA



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Tyler
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2009, 04:57:14 pm »

SPC going big today! 10% and hatched area !!! I am very much looking forward to today now! I will be leaving in about 4 hours, as I have previous things I have promised to attend. Nonetheless this morning was a good wake up call!


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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2009, 07:30:18 pm »

Good luck on the road Tyler!!
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