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Thunderstorm Outlook - Mon/Tues 28/29th

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Author Topic: Thunderstorm Outlook - Mon/Tues 28/29th  (Read 1368 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: July 29, 2008, 11:39:10 am »

Thanks for that Steven!

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2008/017

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 0900GMT on Tuesday 29th July 2008

Valid from/until: 0900-1900GMT on Tuesday 29th July 2008 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Much of Eire

N Ireland

Scotland

Much of England

Wales

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, marginally severe wind gusts, CG lightning, hail, torrential rain.

SYNOPSIS

Plume of moisture and cold front across N England and portions of Eire/N Ireland will continue to move north and west through today. Ahead of this across N Scotland, diurnal heating should provide sufficient low-level theta-e for thunderstorm development later this morning and through this afternoon. Shear will be sufficient for multicell storms capable of producing marginally severe wind and hail. Post-front, across the remainder of the forecast area, surface heating will promote the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms, in a regime characterised by weak to moderate shear values. Gusty winds are possible, and given quite steep low-level lapse rates, isolated tornadoes too. Northern parts of Wales could be most at risk from the latter, with backed surface flow relative to the 850 flow. N Ireland and parts of NW Eire could also see backed surface flow, and a tornado risk.

At this stage, WATCHES are not anticipated. However, the situation will be monitored, especially across N Scotland

Forecaster: RPK.


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