UPDATE 8.45am Mon by Tony Gilbert
Slight Risk Gen Tstorms 12Z-21Z UK and Ireland
Slight Risk of Strong Tstorm & Tornado Development 21Z-03Z Tues Wales
As per earlier forecast for gen thundery activity today though GFS are now more generous with moisture advection earlier in period.
Specific attention is focused on a small prefrontal trough which looks to develop late evening and move north effecting Wales and parts of Glouc region. Strong low level jet overruns the last of the instability creating a moderately sheared environment. It is quite possible that a notable increase in convective activity could take place with the added risk of tornado development. This specific part of the forecast requires a later update.
