Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 08 Mar 2009 06:00 to Mon 09 Mar 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 08 Mar 2009 02:06
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
A large upper trough over the eastern Mediterranean is forecast to travel eastward while weakening. In the wake of the trough, some hundred J/kg of CAPE will be available, leading to showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Ionian / Aegean Sea. Both shear and forcing are very weak and severe weather is unlikely. Locally, LL lapse rates can reach values above 10 K/km and isolated waterspouts are not ruled out but overall threat should stay well below the level-1 threshold.
Further upstream, a large low pressure complex over the northern North Sea will lead to unsettled conditions over large portions of western / northwestern Europe. The upper jet streak over the British Isles will translate southeastward during the period. Some low-end instability is expected to be created in the wake of the trough where weak DLS is present. GFS shows some little CAPE along the cold front over France in the morning hours but it is uncertain whether appreciable convection will develop in that region or not. A narrow convective line may develop and isolated gusts exceeding 25 m/s are not ruled out.
