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WEEKLY FORECAST FOR Monday 2nd March -Sunday 8th March 2009

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: February 27, 2009, 08:52:31 pm »

Thanks to Dave Wiseman from the UKWW for this....

WEEKLY FORECAST FOR Monday 2nd March -Sunday 8th March 2009

ISSUED Friday 27th February 2015Z 

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WARNINGS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER: Severe gales in the north with storm force gusts accompanied by local upland blizzards and drifting snow above 500m from midweek

WEEKLY SUMMARY
After a quiet period for some weeks, March, as the old proverb goes looks set to 'come in like a lion'. Low pressure moving east then SE and dominating a lot of the time & becoming colder during the week, especially in the north and north west as further low pressure swings down from the NW and a N-NW'ly flow becomes established for a time with severe gales in places, snow over high ground, drifting locally and a frost risk by night; some sleet and snow seems very possible too for parts of Wales, N Ireland, N England & Scotland at times, even over lower ground, though there's less risk of it lying widely here.  Later in the week a lighter but more NE'ly flow may become established, so wintry showers become confined to east coasts, the west drier but with overnight inland frosts.   

DAY BY DAY OUTLOOK   

Monday 2nd will see a clear misty start across England with some ground frost about but a band of cloud and rain moving SE from the NW will reach N Ireland and W Scotland by morning and most other western areas of the UK parts by the afternoon; as it moves SE it will tend to fizzle out though, becoming light and patchy. Clearer weather moving into the NW by noon with some blustery showers, these turning wintry, more especially over high ground in the north. There may be gales in the far NW for a time. The SE staying cloudier by evening but further north & west as skies clear a frost developing with icy patches about, away from windward coasts. Temperatures up to 8C in the SE but more like 5-7C generally and only 3C across Highland Scotland.

Tuesday 3rd should see another area of low pressure working in across N Ireland giving a period of rain, heavy in places and preceded by snow on higher ground across Scotland and maybe N Ireland and N England too. Further south and east across central and eastern England and Eastern Scotland a touch of ground frost initially but becoming cloudier everywhere with winds freshening up overnight. The west especially seeing low cloud,drizzle and hill fog about with severe W-SW'ly gales across western coasts of Wales, SW & NW England for a time and these strong winds moving into eastern parts by noon. They could reach severe gale to storm force locally on exposed east coasts for a time. Generally a bit brighter by the afternoon in the west and NW with some sunny periods developing but heavy blustery and increasingly wintry showers with hail and thunder are likely to develop as the wind swings W-NWly and it may gust to 65-75mph near exposed coasts in the showers. These will spread inland by the mid afternoon too. Any high ground north of central Wales could see some heavy drifting snow with local blizzards in the north above about 400m. Frosty by evening in sheltered parts away from the east and SE & SW, with icy patches developing. Temperatures staying at 8-9C in the south but only 3-5C in the north and 1-3C across the Highlands, where it'll feel very cold.

Wednesday 4th will see an area of deep low pressure lying near N Scotland as winds ease off generally to the south of it though still strong in places. A generally cloudy start for most western areas with further wintry showers overnight but most central & eastern parts will see good breaks allowing a touch of frost and local icy patches. Sheltered glens of Highland Scotland may see temperatures as low as -6C by dawn. Further troughs or areas of low pressure are likely to revolve around the low pressure with associated cloud and rain, sleet or snow working east across many western and central parts as they do so, possibly rather heavy at times and giving accumulations of snow over hills. The cloud and rain working SE into eastern and southern parts too, it may still give some heavy wintry showers more especially on high ground above 350m and its probably unlikely to lie for long. Always the risk of more substantial sleet or snowfall in Scotland and N England. Winds still strong in the north west and west with gusts to severe gale force, especially across NW Scotland and generally near coasts and over hills in the west of the UK. Quite a cold day again everywhere, accentuated by the wind, with temperatures about 4-6C generally, but more like 2-4C in the north and just 0-1C across the Highlands.   

Thursday 5th will likely see the main area of low pressure still near NE Scotland or across the northern North Sea allowing a strong N-NW'ly flow in the north still with N-NW'ly near gales continuing especially in exposed areas of NW and N Scotland and the N Isles, gusts to 65mph. Too much wind about for a lot of frost initially though still icy patches about. By day for the north, bright or sunny periods developing after early frost in sheltered parts clears away. Wintry showers about overnight but developing further by mid morning in many areas and still quite heavy and blustery, with hail in them, more especially in northwestern parts of the UK. Some snow still too here, lying and drifting on central and northern Scottish and possibly N Irish high ground above 350m. England and Wales brighter probably with some showers about, notably wintry in places; sunny periods developing for most parts, especially across the east, Anglia and the SE. Temperatures staying cold though at 5-7C and more like 4-5C in the north, but Highland Scotland just 1-3C again, where it'll feel very cold in the blustery winds.   

Friday 6th, is likely to see a chilly N'ly flow continuing probably across most parts of the UK, and dominating the weather. A cold night just about everywhere with a slight frost for most inland parts though coasts and the SW may escape with a ground frost. Wintry showers continuing along north and NW facing coasts especially in the N Scotland overnight and spreading inland more in the north west and west by day. In the north, especially Scotland overnight icy patches about with a moderate frost possible in the Highlands with temperatures as low as -4C; then by Friday evening as winds die down it may become very cold in the glens. By day in the south & east generally fine with sunny periods for most.  Temperatures reaching 5-6C in the south and SW and also the far west but generally more like 3-5C; just 0-1C across the Highlands.

Saturday 7th February and Sunday 8th March are still rather uncertain as regards detail, but it looks like initially staying generally unsettled in a chilly Nly or maybe NEly flow as low pressure sinks SE and high pressure lies to the north of Scotland. Minor areas of low pressure may still give some rain, sleet or snow at times, the snow more likely over higher ground. A notably cold start in the clearer parts of the UK on Saturday with a frost, it could be severe locally. Some patchy freezing fog or low cloud across many areas to start, but at least some sunny periods by day especially in the south, west and SW. The north & east of the UK is perhaps most likely to remain cloudy with some rain or sleet showers about at times though, maybe sleet or snow on hills in the north and east of the UK. Another frost in places on Sunday especially in northern areas. Reasonable sunny periods in the south and SW but eastern and NE'ern parts probably cloudier with some further rain or sleet about but confidence is currently low on distribution and amounts.  Temperatures over the weekend by day will be quite chilly especially the Highlands and the north of Scotland; generally around 4-7C for most, a little highter in the SW, lower in the NE. 

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FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK
*A lot of low cloud over hills with hill fog almost anywhere in central parts ,the west of Scotland & England, along with N ireland and Wales through the early part of the period

*Some freezing fog patches about in central and northern inland areas later in the week

*Slight-moderate & locally severe frosts more especially in the north later on after midweek with icy patches

*Snow risk increasing especially on high ground after Tuesday and most especially across N England and Scotland on high ground above 350m.

*Local severe gales in the west and northwest on Tuesday transferring east and continuing in the north and NW into midweek with gusts to 65-75mph, especially in squally showers

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate but moderate-poor from about Friday onwards

Wiseweather disclaimer: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. Wiseweather are providing the data "as is" and disclaim any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will Wiseweather be liable to you or to any third party for any use or misuse of the forecasts or related data


-----
Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team
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Tyler
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2009, 10:29:28 pm »

sounds like an interesting week! freezing fog it too cool! I have only seen it once, but it was awesome. Hope you see some cool stuff this week martin, and look forward to any images you take.

Good Luck  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2009, 11:13:02 pm »

Thanks very much Tyler. I'm extremely eager to get some weather photography done. I'm so geared up for it this year that if I heard a rumble of thunder while I typing this I would just run straight through the brick wall beside my computer and not bother using the stairs  Smiley. I have a REALLY good feeling about this year. Something cool is going to happen. I'm sensing this for both here and in the US. Your full blown storm season is getting near!

Late April/early May onwards is a good time in the UK. According to TORRO there's an increase in significant convective happenings from that period until late Summer. Fingers crossed. I'm hoping to get my best storm images ever  - this year.
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2009, 11:19:28 pm »

Same here martin. This will be my first "full chase season" since I won't work at a summer camp this year. I definitely better get my best images, since I really don't have that good of ones now (at least compared to other US chasers, obivously)

yeah late april/early may is a good time here too, though its usually farther south into OK and KS, so too far for me to chase, but we have had a few tornado outbreaks around may april here. Hoping for the best this spring! although right now I have to get ready for some snow, gotta get some ideas for photography! Just got a chase partner to split gas with too! things are coming together Martin  Grin
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2009, 02:30:32 am »

Hopefully by the end of Summer we will be saying on here about what a great season we had and sharing cool pics of storms, convective structures, and maybe even a vortex phenomena of some kind - sweet.

Great idea having a chase partner. There's nothing better than sharing the experience with someone else who is just as interested as you are..and great fun too!. Anything to reduce the fuel costs would be handy, especially on those vast plains you have. You never know, you might even get some good storms close to home  Smiley
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« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2009, 01:12:08 pm »

Some OK convection here today. Nice white towers and weak cbs against a crisp blue sky producing sleet and hail showers. Solar heating is surprisingly strong. RTE are giving a risk of thunder. Looks like tonight will be good for Lulin.
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2009, 04:18:51 pm »

Quote
Looks like tonight will be good for Lulin.
Managed to see it (naked eye) last night - the sky started to clear about 0200 but it was after 0400 before it was anything more than intermittent holes. By that time Leo (& Lulin) was getting fairly low in the West.

Yes, the trans looks good at the moment. Tell you what, I'll swap you the convective clouds I have round here for the clear sky you have & which I prefer. Grin
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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2009, 07:40:15 pm »

Lol...Brian, that would be tempting, only thing is I would be shooting myself in the foot...I have convective clouds and clear skies here for Lulin lol.  Smiley
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