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Weekly Forecast (UK) Feb 23rd - March 1st

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Author Topic: Weekly Forecast (UK) Feb 23rd - March 1st  (Read 325 times)
martinastro
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« on: February 21, 2009, 12:30:23 pm »

From Dave Wiseman from the UKWW.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=28863&posts=1

WARNINGS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER: Possibly some quite heavy snow in central and northern Scotland in the latter part of the week and weekend 
WEEKLY SUMMARY

Another quite low key week at first with high pressure dominating a lot of the time but becoming colder during the week in the north and north east as low pressure swings down from the NW and a more N-NW'ly flow becomes established here for a time with a greater frost risk by night and some sleet or snow possible too for parts of Scotland at times, especially on higher ground. 

DAY BY DAY OUTLOOK   

Monday 23rd will see high pressure to the south west and start cloudy generally with some drizzle in the north and west and low cloud or fog over hills and coasts. More persistent rain will affect the far north by day but it should'nt be especially heavy. The SE staying drier generally though with a lot of low cloud about at least to start though some sunny periods will develop by day, and in the west too across most of W Wales and SW England there should be some brighter periods developing. It'll stay rather mild generally everywhere at 8-10C, more like 5-6C over the Highlands. 

Tuesday 24th should see the high pressure across the south and stay rather cloudy everywhere initially with some low cloud,drizzle and hill fog about , a few clear slots in the north may allow a touch of ground frost here in sheltered areas and some fog patches at first. Generally a bit brighter than Monday though in the south with some sunny periods developing and these may spread north and west by the afternoon but a lot of cloud around generally. Temperatures staying quite mild again generally everywhere at 8-11C but only 6-7C across the Highlands.

Wednesday 25th will see the high pressure slowly sink away SE and give a generally cloudy misty start for most central & eastern parts, with a few breaks in the west and central areas allowing a touch of ground frost and local fog patches but more low pressure developing to the NW and its fronts with associated cloud soon working into the far NW with rain by the afternoon here, possibly rather heavy over hills. This cloud and rain working SE into the rest of N Ireland & Scotland by the afternoon, it may be heavy over west facing hills. The rain band spreading south into N England & N Wales by evening, as it becomes more showery in the far NW. Winds freshening up here too by noon and later on, as the winds veer more NW'ly, near gales in the exposed NW, especially near coasts and over hills. Quite a mild day again in the south with temperatures about 8-10C generally, but more like 5-8C in the north and 4-5C across the Highlands.   

Thursday 26th will likely see the area of low pressure swinging east across the northern North Sea allowing a strong N-NW'ly flow in the north for a while with N-NW'ly gales at times in exposed areas of N and NE Scotland and the N Isles, gusts to 65mph. In the north, bright or sunny periods developing after early ground frost in sheltered parts clears away at first in parts of Scotland. Showers here too, developing by mid morning in many areas and becoming quite heavy and blustery, with hail & sleet in them, more especially in north & NE Scotland. Some snow too here, lying and drifting on central and northern Scottish and possibly N Irish high ground above 350m. Cloudier further south and east across England and Wales with some patchy light rain about at times but by mid morning sunny periods developing for most parts, except perhaps E Anglia and the SE. Temperatures staying rather mild in the SW and south at first at 9-10C but nearer average elsewhere at 5-6C and more like 1-4C in the north of Scotland and the Isles, where it'll feel very cold in the blustery north winds.   

Friday 27th, seems likely to see a ridge of high pressure push east across most parts of the UK dominating the weather, with a generally N-NW'ly flow to the northeast still. A cold night just about everywhere with a slight-moderate frost about for most parts though the far south and the SW may escape with a ground frost. A few wintry showers continuing in the N Isles and NE Scotland and maybe NE English coasts too, overnight. In the north, especially Scotland overnight some localised freezing mist patches in places in the glens and more generally icy patches about. Quite a severe frost possible in the Highlands with temperatures as low as -6C. By day in the east sunny periods for most but rather more cloud and some showers, still wintry in the NE by day, but more cloud and rain pushing in from NW by late in the day and this could be mainly sleet or snow in Scotland at least initially and especially over higher ground giving some accumulations here of 5-10cm by the early evening. Temperatures reaching 5-8C in the south and SW and also the far west later but generally more like 2-5C and only 0C in the Highlands, so feeling cold.

Saturday 28th February and Sunday 1st March are still rather uncertain as regards detail, but it looks like a battle may develop between colder air to the north and rather milder air to the south. Eventually the colder air will probably win through for a time but initially staying fairly settled in the south with high pressure not too far away but the area of low pressure that ran into the north on Friday and down the eastern side of England may still be giving some rain or sleet at times, possibly snow on higher ground, leaving most of the north in a chillier N-NW'ly flow by Sunday. A cold start in the mainly clearer north & north west on Saturday with a moderate frost and icy patches though, perhaps some freezing fog patches about too in the glens. By night probably a fair amount of low cloud and mist across many areas of England and Wales along with N Ireland and Scotland, but at least some sunny periods by day in the south and SW. Another frost to start on Sunday in northern and central areas, though the south escaping again probably. Reasonable sunny periods on Sunday for most after fog or freezing fog patches clear in the north and central parts. Temperatures over the weekend by day will be quite cold in the north, especially the Highlands and the north of Scotland at -1C to 2C generally, but generally more like 3-6C for most in the north but the south staying milder on both days at 7-10C.
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FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK
*A lot of low cloud over hills with hill fog almost anywhere in central parts ,the west of Scotland & England, along with N ireland and Wales through the period

*Some fog patches about early on in central inland areas possibly midweek

*Slight ground frosts in the north later on

*Snow melt continuing from higher ground causing localised flooding almost anywhere but esp Scotland and  Wales

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high but moderate-poor by Friday onwards
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2009, 04:04:36 pm »

Just out of interest for those into convective photography living in Ireland/UK. Netweather is predicting nearly 400 CAPE and LI of -1 for some parts of the UK on Sunday (southern areas may have more instability) so there might be a chance of local thunderstorms for some. Bit early for specifics yet.
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2009, 02:56:31 pm »

Big change in the weather for next week and first half of March. Turning very cold and unsettled with gales and potential for storm force winds for Ireland & parts of UK. Waiting to see what the forecast produces closer to te time. Spring may be on a hold for a while yet. At least the weather is looking much more 'interesting'.
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