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2/9/09 FCST: NE/KS/IA

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Author Topic: 2/9/09 FCST: NE/KS/IA  (Read 1329 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: February 09, 2009, 05:51:08 pm »

The risk tommorow has been updraded...

SPC AC 091730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST MON FEB 09 2009
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN
   TX...SERN OK AND SWRN AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
   
   ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF OK/TX EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
   LOWER/MID VS VALLEY. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION APPEARS
   COMPLICATED...AND THIS PRECLUDES A LARGER MODERATE RISK AREA.
   MONITOR TUESDAY/S DAY 1 OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL
   CONUS...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE SWRN
   STATES INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING. A 90-100 KT MID
   LEVEL IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND MOVE INTO SWRN
   TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND AR OVERNIGHT. WHILE NAM/GFS SHOW A
   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE MO/AR BY 11/12Z... NAM MOVES
   THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EWD ACROSS NRN OK AND THE GFS THOUGH NRN
   TX TUESDAY.
   
   TX/OK NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
   CURRENTLY PREFER GFS SURFACE LOW SOLUTION AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
   SPREADS FROM SWRN TX TOWARD THE ARKLATEX DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW LIKELY WILL NOT
   DEVELOP UNTIL LATE UNTIL MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD INTO FAR WRN
   TX. SINCE THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN TX IS EXPECTED
   TO STALL LATER TODAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOWING CURRENT LOWER/MID 60S TO
   RETURN NWWD INTO SJT/ABI/SPS AREAS OF WRN TX AND NWD INTO
   OK...MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-44...TUESDAY. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED
   WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT...500 MB TEMPERATURES
   FROM -18C TO -20C...SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE
   TUESDAY.
   
   STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING FORCING IS SUGGESTIVE OF
   THE INITIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A SQUALL IN THE SPS/ABI/SJT
   AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/TRAILING
   FRONT. VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND THE EXPECTED FAST
   TRANSLATIONAL MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE.
   HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN TEXAS...SRN/ERN OK AND WRN
   ARKANSAS...DISCRETE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP
   BY LATE AFTERNOON IN STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CONSEQUENT
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION WITHIN INTENSIFYING /50-70 KT/
   850 JET CORE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-60 KT AND STRONG FORCING WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND ROTATING STORMS
   INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...20-30 KT LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
   FAVOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION DURING THE
   DAY MAY RESULT IN WEAKER CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
   COMPLICATE THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG CONVECTION LATER IN
   THE DAY.
   
   STORMS AND SQUALL WILL SPREAD ENEWD INTO AR/LA/SRN MO OVERNIGHT
   ...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS WRN TN/NWRN MS BY DAYBREAK WED.
   DESPITE SOME WEAK NOCTURNAL COOLING VERY STRONG KINEMATICS AND UPPER
   SYSTEM FAVOR A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER... INCLUDING
   TORNADOES...TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..IMY.. 02/09/2009
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