Astronomy, Photography and Weather
July 14, 2020, 10:37:46 am
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: IAA lecture programme continues alternate Wednesdays from September - an excellent programme of lectures- Queens University Belfast - Bell Lecture Theatre. Also keep an eye out for the Summer Events
 
  Home Help Search Gallery Staff List Login Register  

2/9/09 FCST: NE/KS/IA

Pages: [1] 2
  Print  
Author Topic: 2/9/09 FCST: NE/KS/IA  (Read 1329 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 5182


Maghera, N. Ireland


View Profile WWW
« on: February 09, 2009, 05:03:33 pm »

I take it this is the same outlook you get Tyler?. This one is not the recent one though. Do you reckon Mike H is out chasing today?

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST MON FEB 09 2009
  
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
  
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MID MO VALLEY AREA OF NE/IA/KS/MO...
  
MID MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...

A SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY IN EXTREME NW KS WILL MOVE NNEWD TO ERN SD AND DEEPEN THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD FROM I-70 INTO ERN NEB AND SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON.  A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF RAIN/SHALLOW CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS OK/KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  DESPITE MINIMAL INSTABILITY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS
NE OK/SE KS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A 60 KT LLJ AND MOIST NEUTRAL PROFILES NEAR THE GROUND.  THE BAND OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR NE KS/NW MO/SE NEB/SW IA BY ROUGHLY 18Z...WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S To LOWER 50S EXPECTED BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON.  HERE...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP AS DEPICTED BY 8.5 C/KM IN 700-500 MB LAYER IN THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE TO REACH 500-750 J/KG.
  
ONE CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...SE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE.  STILL...ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM THIS AFTERNOON /IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING RAINFALL/ WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER NARROW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.  SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE FROM IA TOWARD WI.
  
CA INTO THE CO RIVER VALLEY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD FROM CA TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS NOW TRAVERSING CENTRAL CA.  LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE BELT OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
  
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/09/2009


Report Spam   Logged



Pages: [1] 2
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Bookmark this site! | Upgrade This Forum
SMF For Free - Create your own Forum

Powered by SMF | SMF © 2016, Simple Machines
Privacy Policy