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2/9/09 FCST: NE/KS/IA

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Author Topic: 2/9/09 FCST: NE/KS/IA  (Read 1308 times)
Tyler
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« on: February 07, 2009, 07:53:01 pm »

Looks more and more likely for a chase day on Monday. A decent cold core setup is looking more likely with each model run, conditions will be favorable for mini low topped supercells, the storm prediction center mentions the possibility of isolated tornadoes.

Still fairly questionable, storms should fire between 17 and 19z ( I have class until 19z) so depending on the timing of initiation I might or might not chase. We don't get many if ANY local chase setups before April, so this is quite a treat. If I chase this looks like just an hour or two drive south (which is great!). Anyway, definitely will be monitoring this setup unfolding.

SPC DISC:

Quote
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
   MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS
   INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
   GUIDANCE INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF
   250-500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE.  WHILE RATHER WEAK...IN THE PRESENCE OF
   STRONG SHEAR AND FAVORABLE FORCING...THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED STORMS...EITHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR A
   SHORT BROKEN SQUALL LINE.  IF THIS OCCURS...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY COULD SUPPORT
   LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS
...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

« Last Edit: February 07, 2009, 08:09:22 pm by Tyler » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2009, 04:36:21 am »

Hey Tyler, that forecast sure is a treat and very exciting indeed. There's plenty enough CAPE there for some action, actually very decent CAPE for Winter! (the highest here this Winter was 112). Strong wind shear should more than make up for any lack in instability as you know.....looks good. I hope something initiates and you get your first early chase of the year. An LT supercell or cool shelf cloud would be fantastic. Best of luck with it and be careful out there.  Smiley
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Tyler
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2009, 06:58:30 am »

Thanks Martin, we'll see what happens, could turn out to be too fast and don't see anything. especially if it doesn't clear  in the afternoon and we don't get any heating. Ill post new info here tommorow, hoping for the best though! I'd be happy just to see lightning  Grin been toooo long!
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Tyler
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2009, 04:26:41 pm »

well the SPC has me in 5% Tornado risk for today, so there is a very good chance Ill chase this. Just depends on if there is enough clearing and day time heating for storms to fire. Wish me luck, we'll leave in about 5 hours...


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martinastro
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2009, 04:48:26 pm »

Best of luck Tyler...I hope you see something cool and can get the solar heating. Go for it!  Smiley
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Tyler
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2009, 04:49:36 pm »

scratch that. the new RUC and NAM suck. as of right now im not wasting time on this storm, I'll be watching the radar closely though and jumping in the car if anything looks decent. SPC updated as well...


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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2009, 04:53:41 pm »

Is there still a chance of lightning?. Keep an eye on that radar....you never know what structures could be waiting.  Smiley
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Tyler
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2009, 05:01:18 pm »

SPC

NEAR ZERO CAPE AND NO DETECTABLE
   LIGHTNING

STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING
   OVER KS.  THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULT
   IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST
   NEB...AND SOUTHWEST IA.  LATEST SURFACE TRENDS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
   DRYING AND VEERING OVER KS.  THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN A
   LOWERED CONFIDENCE THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAN REDEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST AN INCREASING MID
   LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL FURTHER LIMIT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
   CONVECTION.  NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF
   HAIL/WIND/TORNADOES IN THIS REGION IN THE EVENT THAT A STORM OR TWO
   CAN OVERCOME STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR.

really hoping for that isolated supercell
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martinastro
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2009, 05:03:33 pm »

I take it this is the same outlook you get Tyler?. This one is not the recent one though. Do you reckon Mike H is out chasing today?

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST MON FEB 09 2009
  
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
  
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MID MO VALLEY AREA OF NE/IA/KS/MO...
  
MID MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...

A SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY IN EXTREME NW KS WILL MOVE NNEWD TO ERN SD AND DEEPEN THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD FROM I-70 INTO ERN NEB AND SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON.  A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF RAIN/SHALLOW CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS OK/KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  DESPITE MINIMAL INSTABILITY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS
NE OK/SE KS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A 60 KT LLJ AND MOIST NEUTRAL PROFILES NEAR THE GROUND.  THE BAND OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR NE KS/NW MO/SE NEB/SW IA BY ROUGHLY 18Z...WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S To LOWER 50S EXPECTED BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON.  HERE...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP AS DEPICTED BY 8.5 C/KM IN 700-500 MB LAYER IN THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE TO REACH 500-750 J/KG.
  
ONE CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...SE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE.  STILL...ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM THIS AFTERNOON /IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING RAINFALL/ WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER NARROW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.  SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE FROM IA TOWARD WI.
  
CA INTO THE CO RIVER VALLEY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD FROM CA TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS NOW TRAVERSING CENTRAL CA.  LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE BELT OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
  
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/09/2009


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martinastro
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2009, 05:05:02 pm »

At least you have the heating on your side..you never know...

How far away are those potential storms from you Tyler?
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Tyler
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« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2009, 05:22:43 pm »

about 50-70 miles. yeah that is the same outlook from the storm prediction center SPC. I dont know if Mike H is, I emailed him yesterday but havent heard anything from him, havent seen him on stormtrack either. But I know a lot of chasers are a bit discouraged today, but most are still targeting sw IA.
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martinastro
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« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2009, 05:49:39 pm »

...There's good chance Mike is out there somewhere. I bet alot of people are discouraged for sure, it can be very heart breaking to get an exciting forecast then have it degraded like that.
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« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2009, 05:51:08 pm »

The risk tommorow has been updraded...

SPC AC 091730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST MON FEB 09 2009
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN
   TX...SERN OK AND SWRN AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
   
   ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF OK/TX EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
   LOWER/MID VS VALLEY. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION APPEARS
   COMPLICATED...AND THIS PRECLUDES A LARGER MODERATE RISK AREA.
   MONITOR TUESDAY/S DAY 1 OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL
   CONUS...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE SWRN
   STATES INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING. A 90-100 KT MID
   LEVEL IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND MOVE INTO SWRN
   TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND AR OVERNIGHT. WHILE NAM/GFS SHOW A
   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE MO/AR BY 11/12Z... NAM MOVES
   THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EWD ACROSS NRN OK AND THE GFS THOUGH NRN
   TX TUESDAY.
   
   TX/OK NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
   CURRENTLY PREFER GFS SURFACE LOW SOLUTION AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
   SPREADS FROM SWRN TX TOWARD THE ARKLATEX DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW LIKELY WILL NOT
   DEVELOP UNTIL LATE UNTIL MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD INTO FAR WRN
   TX. SINCE THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN TX IS EXPECTED
   TO STALL LATER TODAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOWING CURRENT LOWER/MID 60S TO
   RETURN NWWD INTO SJT/ABI/SPS AREAS OF WRN TX AND NWD INTO
   OK...MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-44...TUESDAY. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED
   WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT...500 MB TEMPERATURES
   FROM -18C TO -20C...SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE
   TUESDAY.
   
   STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING FORCING IS SUGGESTIVE OF
   THE INITIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A SQUALL IN THE SPS/ABI/SJT
   AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/TRAILING
   FRONT. VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND THE EXPECTED FAST
   TRANSLATIONAL MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE.
   HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN TEXAS...SRN/ERN OK AND WRN
   ARKANSAS...DISCRETE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP
   BY LATE AFTERNOON IN STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CONSEQUENT
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION WITHIN INTENSIFYING /50-70 KT/
   850 JET CORE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-60 KT AND STRONG FORCING WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND ROTATING STORMS
   INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...20-30 KT LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
   FAVOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION DURING THE
   DAY MAY RESULT IN WEAKER CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
   COMPLICATE THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG CONVECTION LATER IN
   THE DAY.
   
   STORMS AND SQUALL WILL SPREAD ENEWD INTO AR/LA/SRN MO OVERNIGHT
   ...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS WRN TN/NWRN MS BY DAYBREAK WED.
   DESPITE SOME WEAK NOCTURNAL COOLING VERY STRONG KINEMATICS AND UPPER
   SYSTEM FAVOR A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER... INCLUDING
   TORNADOES...TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..IMY.. 02/09/2009
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Tyler
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« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2009, 09:42:31 pm »

well today blue sky BUSTED.

Tommorow's event will take place in bad chasing terrain (I wouldn't chase 400 miles south) though it does sound good. I'm pretty sure Mike H didn't chase this. busting like this kinda ruined my day, I was really hoping to at least see some lightning  Cry
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martinastro
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« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2009, 11:57:17 pm »

Don't worry Tyler...there's always next time. You will get rewarded in the near future.  Wink
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