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Title: Convective Outlook Ireland & UK - Sun Feb 13th Post by: martinastro on February 12, 2011, 06:24:31 pm Storm Forecast Valid: Sun 13 Feb 2011 06:00 to Mon 14 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC Issued: Sat 12 Feb 2011 16:47 Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK No threat levels have been issued. (http://i51.tinypic.com/2ynqqv4.png) SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION Some showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the East Atlantic and the western parts of the British Isles in the wake of a cold front. A few hundred J/kg CAPE are created by steepening lapse rates near the upper cold core of the Atlantic trough. 0-3 km shear is considerably weak and locally 15 - 20 m/s shear from 0-6 km should be too low for organized severe convection. Another region with a small possibility of thunderstorms is the western / southwestern Mediterranean on early Monday morning when the cold front has passed the Pyrenees. 700 hPa winds reach 20 - 25 m/s in this region and isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts are not ruled out. |