Astronomy, Photography and Weather

General Category => Weather & Atmospherics => Topic started by: martinastro on July 09, 2008, 11:06:15 pm



Title: Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 10th
Post by: martinastro on July 09, 2008, 11:06:15 pm
http://www.estofex.org/

(http://i36.tinypic.com/n4tq29.jpg)

Much of Ireland at risk on Thurs.

More to follow when forecast is updated.


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 10th
Post by: Paul on July 09, 2008, 11:10:29 pm
Welcome to the forum Martin!

The weather turned dire here this evening, but alas no thunder and lightning yet.

Paul.


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 10th
Post by: martinastro on July 09, 2008, 11:15:56 pm
Thanks very much Paul, I like the new place very much. TORRO have warning tonight...

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2008/015

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 18:20GMT on Wednesday 9th July 2008 Valid from/until: 18:20GMT - 0200GMT on Wed/Thurs 9th/10th July 2008 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Midlands

N Wales

Lincs, and N E Anglia

N England

S Scotland

N Ireland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, torrential rain, occasional CG lightning.

SYNOPSIS

Frontal system crossing the UK, with triple point moving across portions of Wales/N England overnight. Thunderstorms have developing INVOF surface boundary/moisture plume across Eire, and these may produce weak tornadoes in the next hour or two. Convection/thunderstorms may also develop INVOF triple point/occlusion through this evening as dry intrusion overspreads it, and perhaps southwards on the cold front. Should this occur, gusty winds may accompany it, perhaps marginally severe. Tornado risk is for the TP/cold front due to fairly cool boundary layer - however, deep shear may support rotation, and should any updraught be augmented by this, a tornado would be possible.

WATCH not deemed necessary due to overall lack of instability.

(http://i36.tinypic.com/9i67av.jpg)


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 10th
Post by: martinastro on July 10, 2008, 12:16:17 pm
Update from Tony Gilbert...

Slight Risk Gen Tstorms Ireland 12Z-21Z

Slight Risk Strong Tstorms Wales through to NE UK 15Z-21Z

(http://i33.tinypic.com/sy5wl4.jpg)

Primary attention is given to Red Box as per convective map where GFS develop CAPE upwards of 400 j/kg. Partial  overlay of strong upper jet stream acquires impetus to any developing cell. Though vertical wind profiles tend to suggest pretty much straight lined at all levels. Particular attention is given to blue box where dry air at mid levels overlays and imposes on the track of the occlusion. This should utilise the best potential instability.

Prime threat today will be strong convective gusts (below severe)