Astronomy, Photography and Weather

Its looking increasingly likely that another deep low pressure is going to hit the Uk later in the week. At the minute the current charts are saying N.Ireland and Scotland are going to take the brunt of it with high winds reaching 80mph+, of course the track of the low could change but this needs watching.

(http://i613.photobucket.com/albums/tt215/paulster78/Weather%202010/airpressure.png)

Too far north to make a trip to the SW coast  not really worth it but will keep an eye on this thread. We get a lot more of these severe storms now so it's just a matter of time before we get one hitting  the SW here.

Thanks for starting this thread Paul - looks like a beast of storm heading our way and dangerous too with those 80mph gusts! - this is definitely one to keep an eye on, possible convective potential from this one too. I bet the waves on the N/NW coasts will be monsters.  :)

from Netweather...

Weather type:
Strong Winds

Alert risk period:
11/11/2010 00:01 until 12/11/2010 23:59

Alert details:
Another Atlantic low pressure system will approach the British Isles again during Thursday, bringing with it the threat of gales and/or severe gales along with a period of heavy rain.

Although the precise track of the low pressure system is still uncertain, it is very likely to run either across Scotland or to the North of Scotland with it's strongest winds on it's southern edge.

Areas most likely to be affected are Northern Ireland, Scotland (including the Northern and Western Isles), Northern England and North Wales. Gusts exceeding 70mph are possible in exposed coastal regions, whilst inland 60mph is more likely.

The rainfall associated with this system will be heavy but is expected to move through quite quickly so rainfall totals are likely to remain beneath 25mm. Over the mountains (above 2000ft, 600m) the rain is likely to fall as snow for a time.

This watch will be updated as the track and intensity of the low pressure system becomes more certain.

Confidence: 70%
Issued by PM for Netweather.tv

More fun and games!  ::)

The NW coast will be scary on Thursday, love to be there with the camera but i think you would need to be tied down to take photographs at the peak of this storm! lol   This storm, "Carmen" has the potential to cause some disruption alright, just waiting for the next GFS run now to see.   

It would be insane on the N coast lol - truly insane!  :)

(http://i52.tinypic.com/vhz20w.jpg)

Check out the shear/tornado charts for this storm - wow, top of the scale!

Did you see the footage on BBC Newsline of the mountainous seas at the N coast with surfers? - that was awesome.

I did see that, couldn't believe it was the Irish coast and they were keeping tight-lipped about the location too.  Latest run from GFS at 18:00 has this storm on the same track or even a little further south and even deeper with tighter isobars!!  :o   The Met office are very quite....

any one game for a photo shoot at portstewart strand thur night...... ;)

Im there Jonathan!    Thinking of camping out too-i'll bring the two man tent  ;D

..they let it slip tonight it was the W coast...but no more info, anyone see the images or vid yet on the net?

 Mental waves   
 
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1109/surfing.html

Thanks for the link Paul - wow  :o

This should make for some interesting work on the ferries tomorrow morning :) Luckily i avoided the previous storm when i was off on leave., what was supposed to be a routine 3hr crossing took 12 hours according to a work colleague! This is what th met office shipping forecast is giving for tomorrow morning!

Southerly severe gale force 9 expected later

Wind-Northwesterly, backing southerly or southwesterly 5 or 6, increasing 7 to severe gale 9, veering westerly or southwesterly later. Sea State-Very rough or high.

That has to be one of the worst sea forecasts ive seen for the irish sea since i started working on the boats.

WMO Sea State Code Wave Height (meters) Characteristics
0- 0 Calm (glassy)
1- 0 to 0.1 Calm (rippled)
2- 0.1 to 0.5 Smooth (wavelets)
3 -0.5 to 1.25 Slight
4- 1.25 to 2.5 Moderate
5- 2.5 to 4 Rough
6 -4 to 6 Very rough
7 -6 to 9 High
8- 9 to 14 Very high
9- Over 14 Phenomenal

Met Eireann weather warning
Issued at 10 November 2010 - 12:18
Severe weather warning
Stormy conditions will affect Ireland Thursday afternoon, evening and for much of Thursday night.
Gale force westerly winds will gust betwen 100
and 120 km/hr generally, but gusts of up to 140 km/hr are expected in exposed parts of Connaught and Ulster. These winds are likely to lead to some structural damage and will be accompanied by high seas on Atlantic coasts.Winds will moderate considerably towards dawn on Friday.
Valid 1200hrs Thursday 11/11/10 to 0600 hrs
Friday 12/11/10

Marine Institute wave forecast
http://www.marine.ie/home/services/operational/oceanography/WaveFor...

(Surfers, to the west!)

Here she comes...

(http://i54.tinypic.com/v5wo3r.jpg)

(http://i52.tinypic.com/zswdac.jpg)

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2010/017

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 17:35GMT on Wednesday 10th November 2010

Valid from/until: 0000-2359GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

England

Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Ireland

THREATS

Wind gusts to 65-75mph; tornadoes; occasional CG lightning; hail

SYNOPSIS

Rapidly deepening Atlantic storm will push an occluding frontal system across the British Isles overnight and through Wednesday. Instability along the occluded front and cold front is not predicted to be deep and very large; however, a forced line of shallow convection is possible across parts of Eire/N Ireland, and into Scotland/N England later tonight and for a time tomorrow morning. Strong ascent across northern parts of Ireland and N Ireland and into W Scotland could lead to somewhat deeper convection here, with a risk of thunder. Wind gusts of 50-65mph possible, along with isolated tornadoes.

Across Wales and central and southern parts of England, the cold front is forecast to split, with the surface cold front making somewhat slower eastwards progress than further north. Thus the risk of line convection is lower here. However, across S Wales and southern parts of England, as the upper trough extends SE'wards and a strong mid-level jet streak rounds the base of this, a wave may develop along the cold front in the SW approaches during the morning hours and then move eastwards across southern parts through the middle of the day and into the afternoon hours. Shallow convection may develop in a rather strongly-sheared environment. Broken convective lines are possible with rear-inflow, promoting severe wind gusts (55-65mph) along with a few tornadoes. A tornado watch may be required tomorrow morning for this.

Further north, behind the front heavy showers and few thunderstorms are expected, especially close to western coasts. Strong-severe wind gusts are likely with these.

Forecaster: RPK

Awesome.  :o

I personally think this storm is going to be alot more damaging than the one from a few days ago...

I've been watching the BBC weather and still can't find out what sort of wind speed the west coast of Wales will get Friday morning, one chat showed rain another didn't  ::)

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH


ISSUED: 1800UTC, WEDNESDAY 10TH NOVEMBER 2010.

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
ALL REGIONS IN SCOTLAND, ENGLAND, WALES AND NORTHERN IRELAND.

IN EFFECT FROM 2100UTC ON WEDNESDAY 10TH NOVEMBER UNTIL 1200UTC ON FRIDAY 12TH NOVEMBER 2010.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CROSS THE UK, BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO MOST PLACES.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 80mph.

DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SCOTLAND BRINGING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE UK. A VIGOROUS, 160KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE UK ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE - 'CARMEN' - THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARDS ACROSS SCOTLAND. A BLEND OF MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE AROUND 950hPa, PERHAPS EVEN SUB-950hPa WITH MET OFFICE DATA SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE OF 946 hPa JUST WEST OF THE SCOTTISH COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY, WITH MUCH OF ENGLAND LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONTS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IS UNLIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE UK. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY POSE A RISK THAT WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF AN APPROPRIATE WATCH - A SURGE OF DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH STRONG REAR-INFLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED RISKS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. AT THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET, VORTICITY PRESENT SHOULD TRIGGER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL EMBEDDED IN A WRAP-AROUND OCCLUSION, AND IT IS IN THIS REGION OF SOUTHWEST SCOTLAND THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR - UP TO AROUND 45mm ACCUMULATION. THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY POST COLD-FRONTAL. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SEE 900hPa WINDS INCREASING TO 65-70 KNOTS OVER A WIDE AREA. WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL AND EXPOSED AREAS, AND ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS ARE A RISK. INLAND GUSTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS, STILL REACHING POTENTIALLY UP TO 55-60 KNOTS IN PLACES. COASTAL AREAS SEEING WINDS SUSTAINED UP TO 45 KNOTS, WITH 20-30 KNOTS INLAND. STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTS EASING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

A WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS THE ZONE OF SEVERE WEATHER ENTERS THE BRITISH ISLES.

Netweather update...

Weather type:
Severe Gales, Heavy Rain


Alert risk period:
10/11/2010 21:00 until 12/11/2010 12:00


Alert details:
A deep Atlantic low pressure system will move towards the country from Wednesday evening, crossing Scotland during Thursday bringing with it severe weather in the form of severe gales and heavy rain.

Alert detail
All regions of the UK are included within this alert although the northern half of Scotland will is expected to miss the strongest winds.

Wind
Western coastal regions of Southern Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to see the strongest winds from this system. An initial burst of southerly winds will develop from the west during this evening to affect Ireland and eventually run up through the Irish sea overnight - these are likely to bring peak gusts of 50-60mph.

Westerly gales/severe gales will then develop during the morning on Thursday, firstly affecting the west coast of Ireland before spreading inland and towards the British mainland during the remainder of the day. Western coastal areas may see gusts in excess of 80mph, with gusts inland and along the south coast of England approaching 70mph (perhaps 80mph over western facing hills).

Through the evening and overnight the winds will slowly ease from the west, but as they exit the east coast during this time, further gusts in excess of 70mph are possible before calmer conditions start to move in.

With wind speeds at the levels that are expected, structural damage, uprooted trees, falling branches and difficult travel conditions are possible, so please take extra care if you have to travel.

Rain
Heavy rain will accompany this system, moving in from the West overnight Wednesday before clearing across the country during Thursday. In many areas totals will remain below alert levels of 25mm but on western facing hills up to 40mm is possible, which may add to any flooding issues that have arisen during this week. Rain will fall as snow over 2000ft (600m) on Scottish mountains.

A further spell of heavy rain is also likely to run up into southern areas during Friday but this will be covered within a separate alert should the need arise.

This alert may be updated/superseded by flash alerts during Thursday.



Confidence: 75%
Issued by PM for Netweather.tv

Jeez thats some read from skywarn!!  Rain associated with this system not far away now, winds should start to pick up as well.  A ferocious storm is on the cards-hope everyone stays safe in the warned areas.

Seconded! (http://www.mackenzie1963.freeserve.co.uk/Smilies/AMac%27s/fing02%5B1%5D.gif)

You can also watch the progress of the storm via the excellent Sat.24.com animation page (http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb) (always great to watch).

This one's going to be in the news quite a bit over the next couple of days, with winds like these over population areas of the UK there will be plenty of chaos created!

Just waiting on that phonecall from work to say my shift is cancelled  ;D

Yes Andy great site, look at the storm on satellite, she's massive and check out that wrap around feature!


(http://i613.photobucket.com/albums/tt215/paulster78/Weather%202010/Carmen1.gif)

Not even an amber warning for NI on the Met Office site, yet the shipping forceast is for storm force 10 / violent storm 11 in sea areas Malin & Irish Sea which comprise the NI coastline.

Very odd.

Well the first part is through, the rain & wind was nowhere near as bad as what we had on Sunday/Monday. But this one looks like a horse (the kick is at the rear end).

I think the powers that be are under playing it.  Watching the BBC weather last night they didn't really make much of it - I think its the usual case of don't warn for anything till it's actually happening / happened.

I agree with you on this one being a horse Brian, I think the worst of the winds are yet to come...

Beautiful Sat image Paul  ;D

Disgusted at the Met Office for not issuing a severe weather warning, that's completely unacceptable, they will probably do it later but then it will be too late.

Had some strong gusts early this morning and there's already heavy showers and thunderstorms in W areas of Ireland/N. Ireland. There's a possiblity of severe t-storms later in conjunction with severe gales this evening and tonight - it's going to be wild at the coasts and as Brian said...the kick is at the rear end). The wind shear charts this afternoon are incredible  :)

TORRO tornado watch just issued for S England...

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2010/009 (PLEASE NOTE TCD017 is still in effect, see below).

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 09:15GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010

Valid from/until: 09:15 - 18:00GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

Central and southern England

Much of Wales

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60-65mph; isolated CG lightning.

SYNOPSIS

Deep Atlantic low will cross Scotland today. Frontal system is moving across England and Wales, with a split cold front evident. Along the surface front, line convection is possible. Strong low-level shear suggests that misocyclone development is possible, with an associated tornado/strong-severe wind gust risk. In addition, a strong mid-level jet streak will nose into southern parts of England through this morning. Ascent associated with this looks like causing a small frontal wave to develop and move across parts of S England later this morning and through this afternoon. Rear-inflow into any cells/lines which develop along this may allow strong winds to develop. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible. Convection is expected to be rather shallow so lightning is not generally expected - however, a small risk exists with any vigorous convection, especially across southern parts of England.

Forecaster: RPK

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2010/017

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 17:35GMT on Wednesday 10th November 2010

Valid from/until: 0000-2359GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

England

Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Ireland

THREATS

Wind gusts to 65-75mph; tornadoes; occasional CG lightning; hail

SYNOPSIS

Rapidly deepening Atlantic storm will push an occluding frontal system across the British Isles overnight and through Wednesday. Instability along the occluded front and cold front is not predicted to be deep and very large; however, a forced line of shallow convection is possible across parts of Eire/N Ireland, and into Scotland/N England later tonight and for a time tomorrow morning. Strong ascent across northern parts of Ireland and N Ireland and into W Scotland could lead to somewhat deeper convection here, with a risk of thunder. Wind gusts of 50-65mph possible, along with isolated tornadoes.

Across Wales and central and southern parts of England, the cold front is forecast to split, with the surface cold front making somewhat slower eastwards progress than further north. Thus the risk of line convection is lower here. However, across S Wales and southern parts of England, as the upper trough extends SE'wards and a strong mid-level jet streak rounds the base of this, a wave may develop along the cold front in the SW approaches during the morning hours and then move eastwards across southern parts through the middle of the day and into the afternoon hours. Shallow convection may develop in a rather strongly-sheared environment. Broken convective lines are possible with rear-inflow, promoting severe wind gusts (55-65mph) along with a few tornadoes. A tornado watch may be required tomorrow morning for this.

Further north, behind the front heavy showers and few thunderstorms are expected, especially close to western coasts. Strong-severe wind gusts are likely with these.

Forecaster: RPK

The Met Office now on board with severe weather warnings for N.Ireland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

About time!  :) 

Powerful gusts of wind here, house shook a few times, intense radar echoes too.

wow - really severe blast there now!

(http://i54.tinypic.com/8ycb2u.gif)

Bolt the scopes down Martin, highest gust recorded from the weather station today reached 40mph at 12:13pm. When out earlier on today the rain was hitting me sideways it was crazy for a short while then the wind dropped followed by clear skies.

Thanks

Anthony

Cheers Anthony - the scope is indoors and tucked up in bed  :)

Things are getting worse here and I feel the power could go out later, Knock airport had gusts over 70mph and that report is two hours old, the isobars are getting tighter and tighter  :)

Very severe gusts here Martin, I though my front window was in a few times, horizontal rain as well!

Same here John, felt like a squall passage for a while, saw convective tops in a break and thought I heard thunder at least once earlier. Check out this sat images, what a beauty of a storm!  :)

(http://i53.tinypic.com/30nd89s.jpg)

81mph gusts in W Ireland now...

Nasty out there, just got a report of a van hit by a falling tree in the west Tyrone area-no other information yet.

That's an amazing image Martin, notice the "clumps", on the inner edge, could those be thunder storms?

Hope nobody's hurt Paul!

Very possible John - they do look like anvils for sure, solid ones at that.

Martin, what are the conditions like currently? I assume you won’t be out and about on any cliff tops taking images tonight  :D

Thanks

Anthony

Winds have moderated here but there still a good few strong gusts too, quite a lot of roads flooded in and around Omagh with these recent heavy squally showers.  5500 people without power in N.Ireland.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11735735

Hey Paul, I'm just in, was out for a few hours doing some local shooting, the country roads are flooded in places and the gales are very powerful, and still on-going at the min with intense squally showers of rain and hail - it's a nasty night!

Was very windy here last night - worst of the season for me.  Took out a couple of our fence panels, luckily they missed the parked car...

Our neighbour's fence is mostly in his garden now. I hope the people in the cars remember to ash the sea water off.

Looking forward to seeing what you've got,Martin

Well it was a rough night, I'm glad I wasn't out in it. But I've known worse ... doesn't seem to be much damage locally, not even TV aerials to refix. Wind still strong but gradually easing, big clear gaps between occasional showers rather than the other way around. Baro bottomed out at 962 mb around 5pm yesterday, now 984 mb & rising slowly.

That sure was a rough night Brian wasn't it, the gales never seemed to stop until day time today, some of those gusts were definitely severe, the most memorable for me was squall at around 02.00 which must have been 70 mph easily - that got my adrenalin pumping  :)

6000 homes without power last night in NI according to NIE.

John, I have nothing exciting on camera just some local flooding on a country road at night which I will post later. I hope you had a wild time at the coast  :)

Possible tornado in Ipswhich - sounds like a squall though unless a funnel was seen...

http://www.eveningstar.co.uk/news/ipswich_tornado_tears_through_residential_streets_1_725038

Unfortunately this storm has claimed a life...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11734050

Very sad   :(

Gallery of storm pics on the BBC site...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11742503