Astronomy, Photography and Weather

General Category => Astronomy & Space => Topic started by: martinastro on October 18, 2010, 02:26:18 pm



Title: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 18, 2010, 02:26:18 pm
I've decided to make a new long term thread for issuing aurora alerts, this would make more sense than having multiple threads everytime a solar wind stream hits. The forecasts on here are only issued when there's a slight chance (or more) of activity for those at mid northern latitudes. Please keep this thread for forecasts, alerts, and discussion. The thread is now underway for the period Oct 18-20th).

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels all three days of the forecast period (18 - 20 October), with a chance for M-class events from evolving Region 1112.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days of the forecast period (18 - 20 October). Isolated minor storm periods are possible on 19 October. A coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position late on 18 October, followed by a second geoeffective CH HSS likely to arrive early on 20 October. These features, coupled with possible effects from the CME observed on 14 October, expected to arrive on 19 October, are the reasons for the forecasted increase in geomagnetic activity.



Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 18, 2010, 03:07:03 pm
Also, members can use this thread in conjunction with the aurora charts thread for watching any current geomagnetic activity. Both of these threads are stickies and will remain at the top of the Astronomy and Space section.

http://astrophotoweather.smfforfree4.com/index.php/topic,323.0.html


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 19, 2010, 08:12:41 pm
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days of the forecast period (19 - 21 October), with isolated minor storm periods possible on 19 October. A coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position late on 18 October or early on 19 October, followed by a second geoeffective CH HSS expected to arrive early on 20 October. These features, coupled with possible effects from the CME observed on 14 October, are the reasons for the forecasted increase in geomagnetic activity.



Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 22, 2010, 05:30:59 pm
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the first day (22 October) and about halfway through the second day (23 October). Sometime around mid-day on 23 October and continuing through the third day (24 October), an increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected. There is also a chance for isolated storm periods at some locations during this interval. The increase is forecast because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: markt on October 23, 2010, 07:39:37 am
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the first day (22 October) and about halfway through the second day (23 October). Sometime around mid-day on 23 October and continuing through the third day (24 October), an increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected. There is also a chance for isolated storm periods at some locations during this interval. The increase is forecast because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.

I'm currently sat at Heathrow Airport waiting to fly out to Reykjavik as I type this, and reading the above has me grinning like a Cheshire Cat!  Icelandic weather is forecast VERY cold and clear (they're sat under high pressure) through till monday / tuesday.  I have a full armoury of camera and lenses with me and some serious cold weather clothing - if there's any sign of the aurora there I will snap it ;)

Not sure what the internet connection is like where i'm staying (new hotel for me) - however if I can I will get some images up here for you.

Speak soon,
Mark :)


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 23, 2010, 03:56:30 pm
Best of luck Mark!, you couldn't have picked a better time, that's a very good forecast, you will get auroras on at least two nights 100%. N lats on red alert at moment. Enjoy the show!, will be watching for anything from here too.  :)


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 23, 2010, 06:45:44 pm
Geostorm now! - KP 5


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: DaveH64 on October 23, 2010, 09:01:00 pm
First good clear night for a long time moon very bright here tonight.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 23, 2010, 09:12:37 pm
Great clear night isn't Dave, Moon is extremely bright, aurora charts are bouncing around, will need close watching tonight, N lats have been getting a great show for hours, hope mid lats get their chance soon.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: brianb on October 23, 2010, 11:21:28 pm
Gonna have to be a remarkable aurora to penetrate the moonlight .... the NW horizon is "bright" but I'm pretty sure it's just the moon .... no colour, no signs or rays etc. Incidentally the seeing is reasonably steady at times, I've just had my best view of Jupiter this apparition. Not a great night for faint objects though!


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 24, 2010, 03:47:28 am
Conor and I are just back from the N coast but the aurora didn't make it this far S tonight, next try on Sun night. Stunning clear sky though and the moon made Dunluce like daylight, convection forming over the Sea too. Arrived back home to a nasty frost, car windows are covered in ice.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 24, 2010, 03:48:30 am
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is forecast to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storming likely at all latitudes and a chance for major storming at high latitudes for days 1-2 (24-25 October). Conditions are forecast to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated minor storm on day 3 (26 October) at all latitudes. The elevated activity is expected in part to a large, favorably positioned coronal hole as well as a possible glancing blow on 25 October from the aforementioned CME.



Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: markt on October 24, 2010, 11:50:42 am
Morning all!

A quick report - yesterday didn't quite go as planned, we were delayed in heathrow airport for 12 hours because our plane started puffing out black smoke from its engine as we were taxi-ing for take off.  Back to departures we went and ended up waiting for another plane to fly from Iceland to get us here...  We finally arrived at our hotel at 4.20am this morning - as opposed to 3 in the afternoon. 

Aurora was very bright, we could easily see it despite the moonlight and we were stood out of the front of the rather light polluted airport - lots of dancing rays, pinks, purples, greens.  However all the photo gear was bagged up in the back of the airport shuttle at this point...  By 4.20am had been up for nearly 24hrs so bed was calling...

Today is a different matter.  I'm refreshed, it's lovely clear deep blue skies http://www.vedur.is/vedur/athuganir/vefmyndavelar/reykjavik/#teg=n and these are forecast till tomorrow day.  Off out around town for a while then coming back for a kip before an all night aurora vigil starts.  SW is suggesting tonights will be better than last nights, so things could be pretty darn good!  Have internet in the room so will get pics up as and when.

By for now,
Mark


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on October 24, 2010, 12:25:50 pm
Great to know you are now settled in Mark and feeling refreshed!, tonight is the night for action (I hope) so I'm sure you will get high rewards!.  :) Here's the alert from SW incase others haven't seen it yet...

NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of severe geomagnetic storms around the poles on Oct. 25th. The forecast is prompted by a possible double whammy: both a solar wind stream and a CME could hit Earth's magnetic field on that date.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: markt on October 25, 2010, 08:12:19 pm
Don't anyone mention cloud!  >:(

In true fashion cursed cloud appeared just before sunset.  However, the auroras were there - I could see the outline of the moon through the clouds and also at times the eerie green glow at its brightest shining through the veil of cloud(!!!)  If it had been clear it would have surely been a sight to behold.  Tonights weather is 'inclement' to say he least - howling gale and snow / sleet / rain simultaneously.  I actually quite like it in a strange way - can't beat a nice bit of extreme weather!  Here in Iceland the auroral oval is never far away so will be out there observing whenever the clouds part - i'll also be taking pictures when the wind drops as at the moment it would send the camera and tripod clean over.

Clear skies to you all! :)


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on November 13, 2010, 06:45:23 pm
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 November). Activity is expected to increase to mostly unsettled levels on day two (14 November) and unsettled to active levels on day three (15 November). This increase in activity is due to the arrival of multiple small CME's mixed with the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.



Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on November 14, 2010, 11:23:40 am
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with the chance for minor storming and a slight chance major storming on day 1 (15 Nov) due to the forecasted arrival of a shock from the CME on 12 November. Conditions are expected to persist at mostly active levels with the chance for minor storming on day 2 (16 November), and mostly active with a slight chance for minor storming on day 3 (17 November).





Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: markt on November 15, 2010, 12:26:47 am
I could see aurora on the icelandic webcams earlier tonight...  Nothing from the west mids tho!  ::)


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: Big Dipper on November 15, 2010, 02:49:11 am
Ditto down here Mark - but one of the clearest skies that I've had for weeks!  :)


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2011, 01:31:27 am
A faint low aurora display has been visible from here in the NW to N sky sector for the last 20 min's and still present.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2011, 02:05:29 am
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the forecast period (06 - 08 January). Isolated active to minor storm periods are possible beginning on 08 January. The forecasted increase in activity levels is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position by 06 January.

Minor update added at 20:45 UTC: A high speed stream from CH431 is in progress. Solar wind density reached very high levels at ACE and peaked around 20h UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field has swung strongly southwards. Minor and even major geomagnetic storming is possible for the remainder of the day and early on January 7. The disturbance appears to be much stronger than anticipated.



Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on February 02, 2011, 09:02:12 am
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for a minor storm on day 1 (2 February) due to coronal hole effects along with intermittent periods of Bz south. On day 2 (3 February), unsettled to active conditions are forecast until the anticipated mid-day arrival of the CME from 30 January, when an isolated minor storm will become likely. Conditions on day 3 (4 February) are expected to be mostly unsettled to active as coronal hole effects begin to wane.



Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on February 04, 2011, 08:44:08 pm
Aurora now visible for mid northern latitudes! - wet and windy here.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: paulster78 on February 04, 2011, 10:30:39 pm
Can't see there being any breaks in the cloud either-constant rain here  :(


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on February 13, 2011, 11:15:08 pm
Active Region 1158 has unleashed an M6-Class solar flare causing a radio black out and CME heading directly for Earth. Impact in 2-3 days, be on the alert for aurora displays!  :)


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: brianb on February 15, 2011, 06:40:03 am
There was an X class flare in the early hours of the morning (Feb 15) - first since 2006 - from AR 11158 which is just about on the centre of the disk, so any ejecta should be headed our way. Pity any aurora will coincide with full moon but that's the way the cookie crumbles - the cloud gods probably won't help either.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on February 17, 2011, 01:32:13 am
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on 15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the disturbance subsides.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on March 05, 2011, 12:40:10 pm
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next three days (05-07 March). Model guidance suggests a possible arrival on day two (06 March) of an Earth-directed CME observed early on 03 March. This slow-moving CME is expected to bring a slight chance for major storm conditions at high latitudes. Activity levels are anticipated to decrease on day three (07 March).


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: markt on March 05, 2011, 03:44:22 pm
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next three days (05-07 March). Model guidance suggests a possible arrival on day two (06 March) of an Earth-directed CME observed early on 03 March. This slow-moving CME is expected to bring a slight chance for major storm conditions at high latitudes. Activity levels are anticipated to decrease on day three (07 March).

I hope something hits...  I'm sat right on the north coast of Anglesey, North Wales, this weekend - I was even optimistic about the possibility of aurora and so brought the camera and tripod with me.  Staying with my parents who have had lovely blue clear skies all week...  Arrived friday night when it slowly became cloudy, and now it's completely greyed out with sea fog from the Irish sea spoiling any chance of viewing anything past 30 yards.   Just been looking at sat24 and will be more luck than judgement if it does clear up...  Fingers crossed!  ::)


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on March 08, 2011, 03:51:36 pm
Spaceweather is getting very exciting - A partial halo CME was observed following a long duration (LDE) event in region 11166. This CME could reach Earth on March 9/10, however, it will very likely be overtaken by the very fast CME produced by the M3.7 LDE in region 11164 late in the day. This CME could reach Earth on March 9 and cause minor to severe geomagnetic storming.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on April 09, 2011, 12:25:59 pm
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with active levels at high latitudes on day one (09 April). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with isolated active levels at mid latitudes and minor storm levels at high latitudes, on days two and three (10-11 April). The increase in activity is due to a coronal hole high-speed stream.



Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on August 03, 2011, 02:07:01 pm
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next three days (03-05 August). Region 1261 and Region 1263 are both capable of producing a major event and both have a slight chance of producing an energetic proton event.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 August). Day two is expected to be predominately quiet with chance a for isolated active conditions late in the day. Day three (05 August) is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm conditions. The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the coronal mass ejection from 02/0616Z. Due to the enhanced environment there is a chance for the 10 MeV protons to cross event thresholds with shock arrival.



Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: martinastro on August 05, 2011, 12:15:05 am
Geomagnetic Forecast: The geomagnetic field isexpected to be at minor to major storm levels with a chance for severe storm periods as the effects of three CMEs are expected toimpact the Earths geomagnetic field early on 05 August. Active tominor storm levels are expected on 06 August. Unsettled to activelevels are expected on 07 August.


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: paulster78 on August 05, 2011, 09:54:27 pm
CME has arrived, high and mid latitudes on red alert with low lats on amber-anyone with clear and dark skies should look out for aurora now


Title: Re: Aurora Alert Thread
Post by: markt on August 05, 2011, 11:33:06 pm
It's classed as a 'severe' KP8 storm - grrrr, clouds here  :(