Astronomy, Photography and Weather

General Category => Weather & Atmospherics => Topic started by: martinastro on April 22, 2010, 03:11:11 pm



Title: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 22, 2010, 03:11:11 pm
GFS seems very keen on an unstable day across much of Ireland, N. Ireland, Britain, Wales etc on Sunday April 25th with 1000 CAPE and LI's between -3 and -4 along with an upper level trough and temps between 16 and 18 C. Assuming this doesn't get downgraded in a major way it seems this could be the first chance of decent thunderstorms over the UK this Spring. GFS is probably over cooking the CAPE, however the set-up still looks promising even if this is the case.

(http://i44.tinypic.com/23i8ap0.jpg)


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: markt on April 22, 2010, 07:00:32 pm
Looks promising! A nice thunderstorm would be good  :)


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 23, 2010, 05:12:04 pm
Here's the latest GFS, still looking good for Sun. I will be chasing this day for sure if the charts hold together

(http://i41.tinypic.com/339pu11.png)


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: paulster78 on April 23, 2010, 05:54:04 pm
I like the way this is shaping up for Sunday!   Dont know if I'll be able to get away to chase though, might get lucky and get a storm roll by the house.  At the minute anything would be better than this boring grey cloud.


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: markt on April 24, 2010, 12:41:54 pm
Excellent stuff!  A decent sunday thunderstorm would make up for the horribly milky skies I currently have on saturday...


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 24, 2010, 06:39:05 pm
Blimey, latest GFS looks fantastic...

(http://i40.tinypic.com/2v1nhnr.png)


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: markt on April 24, 2010, 07:05:06 pm
There's some bright echoes heading your way on the radar Martin, should be with you after dark...


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 24, 2010, 07:07:02 pm
Cheers Mark, I have my eye on them (via radar), some strong echoes over the Republic, will probably turn cold and weak by the time they get here, then again one never knows for sure. Worth watching indeed, thanks.


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: paulster78 on April 24, 2010, 08:21:45 pm
Thats looks brilliant!!  I was expecting a downgrade at this stage but theres a slight upgrade if anything.  Would be happy with values like these in mid-summer, bring it on! ;D


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 24, 2010, 10:16:44 pm
Outlook from Tony Gilbert...

(http://i40.tinypic.com/2vl9rno.jpg)

Moderate risk of Thundery Showers UK & Ireland 09Z-21Z Sun 25th April 2010

UKMO Fax chart continues to show the development of a post frontal surface trough. High over the continent funnels moist unstable air from the Azores. Temps across the UK & Ireland expected to rise quite rapidly from late morning onwards. Destabilising the atmosphere further as a deep upper trough nudges east aloft.

Thundery showers look to be on the cards from very early on to the west though the best instability will build further east later in the day. Lapse rates could become very steep indeed. Restrictions include weak vertical shear and heavy mid level moisture. Though GFS currently favours better potential instability derived by a layer of dry air across the midlands and south of this region.

North Sea SST are around a meager 7 deg C. If the wind remain light along the east coast then an onshore breeze could in fact develop by late afternoon creating numerous convergence zones. It will be within this region that the odd funnel/ waterspout report will be possible.

PS. In theory probably the best storm chase day so far this year with slow moving thundery showers. Though severe weather unlikely.



Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 24, 2010, 10:48:40 pm
This just keeps getting better, here's the latest - 1300 CAPE and -4 LI around Lough Neagh!

(http://i44.tinypic.com/zk4oxi.png)


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: Padraig OBrien on April 24, 2010, 11:45:10 pm
about an hour ago a pretty intense echo just passed east through the neighbouring county from here didnt observe lightning though


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 24, 2010, 11:57:26 pm
Watching that one on the radar Padraig, they look strong, atd sferics showing no c-gs, will keep an eye on it as it moves north.


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: Padraig OBrien on April 25, 2010, 12:06:57 am
ye it looked intense Martin im hopefull for tomorow though once the sun gets out thats the main thing i hope +1

Just and update from this morning some hefty showers crossing ROI from West to East one just to the north of me. The problem is that it is too flippin cloudy.


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 25, 2010, 10:47:00 am
Chance of funnels over NE N. Ireland today due to Sea breeze according to Paul Knightly from TORRO


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: markt on April 25, 2010, 01:11:45 pm
Had a clear window this morning which was nice as was able to get some solar observation in, however whilst doing this I had one eye on the radar and satellite images.  Just had to rush everything in as the first 'big spots' of rain are falling.  I think thats it for observing for me today - I might have to get me a sunday afternoon bottle of wine now and sit and watch for any interesting clouds coming in...

There's some very bright colours on the radar for ROI atm...   ::)


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: martinastro on April 25, 2010, 06:32:33 pm
Busted here, we where on Slieve Gallion - got the car stuck in snow would you believe!. T-storms in NE and E NI and S/SE Ireland and a few in Britain.


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: paulster78 on April 25, 2010, 06:34:51 pm
Well all the action was in the east, nothing here at all. I observed some good convection away in the distance to the south, towers visible and rain shaft. Got some shots, will post later.


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: Padraig OBrien on April 25, 2010, 06:39:32 pm
Fantastic day here today got caught in a brilliant thunderstorm on a Motorway , which gave the heaviest rain ive seen in years i have to say observed a few c-g strikes have pics on IWN!


Title: Re: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th
Post by: brianb on April 28, 2010, 09:12:13 am
Interesting ... was in Derbyshire at the weekend, there was a prolonged but lightish shower where I was on Sunday afternoon (25th) but travelling a bit later through Buxton there had obviousy been very heavy rainfall (but no damage).